By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
Delegates from the US, EU, Russia and the Ukraine met yesterday and reached a deal to calm pro-Russian separatist tensions throughout Eastern Ukraine. The accord was a statement for further cooperation and de-escalation of the conflict (Geneva Joint Statement on Ukraine).
The agreement depended on the illegal groups that seized power to lay down their arms in exchange for amnesty and public proposals to amend the Ukrainian constitution that could allow them greater autonomy. The deal just fell short. That deadline has past today and was met with an expected indirect Russian criticism by the separatists: that the illegal leadership in Kiev disarm and disband too.
While Russia signed the deal on the surface and played the diplomatic game, it is continuing to stroke the fires underneath and on the ground. The ruse pulled on the West was a matter of vague language in the statement and the falling short of offering East Ukraine a proper referendum to secede from Ukraine if they choose, under the watch of independent international monitors.
The Joint Statement allows them to continue to claim greater distance from the separatists that they put in motion already, should they desire to maintain deniability in the face of the international community. Russia wants the sanctions dropped and no more Western sanctions to be added. It also has a non-wavering national interest in Ukrainian political influence and assurances that their control over the energy sector in the East will not be threatened. It seeks the best guarantee of those interests- even if it is a controversial or illegal annexation again.
Aside from the diplomatic chess game in which Russia just made a brilliant power move, Moscow is playing music to the Russians in Russia and East Ukraine. Russia may return to the old sound bite that Kiev’s band consist of illegal militants in chorus with the separatist rhetoric, or they may keep their distance and pretend to be unaffiliated- which is their official position now. The deal gives them more leeway and more options; and while it is expected that they will reverse the course of the separatists, it is not part of the agreed Joint Statement that they are under the sole responsibility to do so. they can always claim that it is the West’s fault for stoking tensions and then take action but it seems that their objectives remain unchanged by this agreement. Still, they gain more wiggle-room from it than the West.
The following is a copy of the Geneva Joint Statement on Ukraine:
Following is a joint statement on Thursday by the four parties — the United States, the European Union, Russia and Ukraine — meeting in Geneva to discuss the continuing conflict in Ukraine:
The Geneva meeting on the situation in Ukraine agreed on initial concrete steps to de-escalate tensions and restore security for all citizens.
All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-Semitism.
All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.
Amnesty will be granted to protesters and to those who have left buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes.
It was agreed that the O.S.C.E. Special Monitoring Mission should play a leading role in assisting Ukrainian authorities and local communities in the immediate implementation of these de-escalation measures wherever they are needed most, beginning in the coming days. The U.S., E.U. and Russia commit to support this mission, including by providing monitors.
The announced constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. It will include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for the consideration of public comments and proposed amendments.
The participants underlined the importance of economic and financial stability in Ukraine and would be ready to discuss additional support as the above steps are implemented.
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