By William Tucker
Israel and Hamas reached a prisoner swap deal last week in which 1,027 Palestinians held in Israel would be traded for an Israeli soldier held by Hamas in Gaza. The first part of the deal was carried out today with the Israeli soldiers release which coincided with the release and transfer of 500 Palestinians. Another 500 plus will be released next week. As one might assume, deals of this nature are highly emotional and the political bodies involved have as much to lose as they do to gain in such negotiations. Emotion and lopsided numbers aside, it is necessary to consider what each player won – and lost – in this latest prisoner swap.
For Hamas the deal was quite significant. In addition to securing the release of so many prisoners, the Islamist group gained in its standing among Palestinians – much to the chagrin of Fatah. This boost could be short lived, however. In agreeing to the deal with the Israelis, Hamas gave away the one thing they have been holding over the Israelis over the past five years – Gilad Shalit. By making such a bargain Hamas does gain a bit of legitimacy, but the political split among the Palestinian political factions prevents any meaningful progress in peace talks with Israel. We’ll certainly have to watch how Hamas plays its hand in the near future and how the Israelis will respond to this positive development.
Israel on the other hand would appear to be the loser in this deal, however that is not the case. In its talks with the different Palestinian factions Israel had worked hard – albeit inconsistently – to secure the release of their soldier. By agreeing to the deal, Israel removed one of the largest bargaining chips Hamas had to offer. Furthermore, Israel no longer must provide for the Palestinian prisoners which is always a burden for such a small state. Perhaps the biggest gain for Israel in this deal is the political wrangling that is sure to ensue among the Palestinians. Israel cannot conduct meaningful peace talks without a unified Palestinian political body. Absent that, Israel would prefer that the Palestinians remain divided in a way they are now. Hamas just improved its position vis-à-vis Fatah meaning that the two sides will be negotiating on a playing field that is a bit more level. Whatever the outcome of Palestinian reconciliation, Israel stands to benefit.
Comments are closed.