AMU Homeland Security Opinion

Ukraine Falling into Russia’s Trap

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

As Russian infiltration of Eastern Ukrainian ethnic Russians continues subversive activities, the nationalists in Kiev are slowly following into the trap called overreaction and the “over use of force” which will be portrayed as brutality.

Russian President Putin has many options and his best weapon in the short term is waiting patiently while orchestrating a counter-revolution. Before sending in his troops, he must wait for the proper context to do so and the most legitimate excuse he can. In other words, the pro-Russian Ukrainians must be suffering or appear to be suffering from the Ukrainian “fascists”, as Putin incorrectly labels the nationalists.

Ukrainian President President Oleksander Turchinov is preparing to launch what they call a “large-scale counterterrorism operation” aimed at slowing down increasing militant insurgency or preventing another separatist Crimea moment in the east. The mere language of President Turchinov and his side blowing the death of one security officer way out of proportion will be taken by the Moscow and their Ukrainian brothers as a pretext for oppression real or imagined.

The fears of suppression and retribution for pro-Russians are real not imagined. Nevertheless, these fears are amplified among pro-Russians in Ukraine by Moscow’s finely tuned information operations. Moreover, this comes after their leadership’s long standing imprisonment, intimidations and abuses to political opponents threatening Yanukovych’s inner circle.

The interim political figures that moved in after pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych fled in February are amateurs lacking greater ruling legitimacy; especially in the minds of Moscow. A proper presidential election is scheduled after May 25 in a series of rounds. Among the registered candidates, the presidential front runners, Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko, are not the same nationalists that Russian propaganda is now targeting. If they are elected, Russian information operation will have a more difficult time de-legitimizing Kiev. So it might make sense for Moscow to step up their game now as they are doing and see if they can indirectly provoke Kiev into an all-out-fool-hearty and brutal response action that collaterally effects bystander Russians living in Ukraine.

So far, the pro-Western Ukrainian authorities have avoided direct confrontation as best as they could with pro-Russian separatists. They are now facing a stronger commitment of force used by pro-Russians in order to stir the pot and draw them in too deep. They must continue to play a game of offense and resist the trap. Yet there is already a little war that Putin is planting there and it involves Ukrainian special forces and pro-Russian forces.

Still, once they respond with these massive public counterterrorist crackdowns, the Russian military can make a move of “mercy” at the request of an already growing chant of unity with Russia from that region and hostility toward Kiev. Mother Russia has already secured her military interests in Crimea and now they are engineering the means to secure the rich energy sector in the east. Bonus points are an enthusiastic group of new Russians, more territory and greater Russian solidarity against those that would humiliate them and keep them weak—their perspectives toward the EU and the larger Western global system.

In response to the clear political unification movements of Russia, the EU and the US are left asking themselves if they can tolerate a hold on most of Ukraine, with the exception of Crimea and the eastern part. If not, then they must find themselves currently playing the game of theory while Russia plays the game of cold pragmatism. Russia is taking Ukraine back the same way the EU took it forward; the only difference is that they have a 40,000 troops on standby and are active on the ground within Ukraine.

In the end, it all depends on commitment and who wants Ukraine more or possibly who is willing to share and if so, how much? If the EU and the US really want to stop the chain of events and small Russian victories, they have to back it up with the full weight of their militaries and their economies. As grim as that sounds, nothing short will demonstrate to the Russian leadership and Ukraine a clear defensive posture with possibly retaliation. In other words, Russia may be willing to go to war to get Ukraine back. That remains to be seen but may be likely. The EU and the US certainly appear as though they would rather lose Ukraine than go to war to win it back.

 

 

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