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September 2, 2010

Suicide Bombers Strike Shia Procession in Lahore

By William Tucker

lahore_shiablast_608.jpgOn Wednesday three suicide bombers stuck a Shia procession commemorating the martyrdom of Hazarat Ali killing 31 and injuring scores more. The attack comes during a massive humanitarian crisis resulting from major flooding throughout the country. In response to the attack many of the mourners attacked a local police station for failing to prevent the bombings. The Shia's that were targeted make up a sizeable minority in Pakistan and are often targeted by the Sunni majority. In recent years groups such as the TTP and other Sunni militants have launched attacks attempting to exploit this division in Pakistani society. In spite of the flooding, Islamabad has continued its tepid offensive against militants along their shared border with Afghanistan. The Lahore bombing may have been the militants response to the continued military operations. With one-fifth of the nation under water this recent spate of violence couldn't have come at a worse time.

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September 1, 2010

Ethiopia Reenters Somali Fray

By William Tucker

The Kenyan Daily Nation is reporting that Ethiopian troops have twice crossed into Somalia along with Somali troops that are loyal to the TFG in Mogadishu. The details of these incursions are limited, but do show that the Ethiopian government is concerned about the al-Shabaab offensive against AMISOM and the TFG. Combat in Mogadishu has moved closer to the presidential palace which was recently struck by al-Shabaab mortars killing four Ugandan soldiers. For its part, Uganda is requesting US assistance and funding to move an addition 10,000 Ugandan troops to Somalia. We may not have a clear picture of the situation on the ground in Mogadishu, but the concern expressed by the Ethiopian and Ugandan governments show that the situation is growing steadily worse.

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August 30, 2010

The Limits of Intelligence and the Excess of Conspiracy

By William Tucker

Moscow rules number one - assume nothing.

General Yuri Ivanov, deputy head of Russia's powerful military intelligence agency (GRU), died while swimming in Syria several weeks ago. According to the few reports available in the media his body was found four days later by Turkish fishermen. This is a strange incident for several reasons such as timing, lack of details in the press, his presence in Syria, and the length of time between his going missing and body recovery. Let's look at these in reverse order for no other reason than to be confusing.

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August 29, 2010

Seventh Day of Major Fighting in Mogadishu

By William Tucker

Since the declaration of 'major war' against AU and TFG forces in Mogadishu, al-Shabaab forces continue to advance towards the presidential palace and other government strongholds. AllAfrica.com reported yesterday that the Mekka-al-mukarama road between the presidential palace and the airport had been shut down by al-Shabaab forces. Thus far casualty estimates are around 80 civilians without any casualty numbers provided by the belligerent forces. Although al-Shabaab seems to be steadily advancing there has not been any word from AU peacekeeping nations on resupply or even an allowance to counterattack. It appears as if things are rapidly heading south in the besieged Somali capital.

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August 27, 2010

CIA Steps Up Operations in Yemen

By William Tucker

15shadowwarmap-popup-v2.jpgThe Washington Post ran a story this past Tuesday declaring that the CIA and the Pentagon were looking to increase their presence in Yemen to counter the threat posed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. In the last few years the US special operations forces have conducted training of Yemeni forces and participated in several raids. In light of the bombing attempt on a US bound aircraft last December, the CIA has become increasingly concerned about AQAP's capabilities. Furthermore, the radical cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi, who is now hiding in Yemen, has inspired several plots against the US homeland in the last few years.

Operating in Yemen does pose several challenges because of the Saleh governments support for some al-Qaeda elements. Saleh has been known to use al-Qaeda to target his political rivals and cries foul when they reciprocate. The Yemeni President then blames any attack against his interests on al-Qaeda and uses these incidents to try and get more funding from the US. For intelligence operations to have any success they must try to operate independently of Yemen's intelligence community to avoid being used as pawns in Yemen's domestic issues. Like many Middle Eastern countries Yemen is fractious making any sort of operation difficult to begin with, but not necessarily impossible.

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