The last few weeks have been a headache for Venezuelan strong man Hugo Chavez. Perhaps the most immediate challenge to his uncontested leadership in Caracas is not the political opposition, but rather the decaying of the national electrical infrastructure. This is not to say that everything until this point has been going smoothly for Chavez. On the contrary, inflation is rising, the national debt is out of control, and food is becoming increasingly scarce. In typical dictatorial fashion, Chavez has resorted to targeting his political opposition instead of focusing on the problems at hand.

Unfortunately for Chavez the opposition movement is once again gathering steam; albeit without a strong central leadership, but this could change. With the loss of power to much of the country the traditional center of support for Chavez, the poor, may turn on him and embrace the opposition. Currently, it appears as if Chavez understands this and has asked Cuba to complete its obligation to upgrade Venezuela's aging power grid. To facilitate this deal Cuba has sent Ramiro Valdes, one of the last remaining original members of Fidel Castro's initial push to topple the Batista government in Havana. According to Douglas Farah, a well known terrorism expert, Valdes is known for working with non-state actors and suppression of the political rivals.

The presence of Valdes in Caracas is an indicator that Chavez views his revolution as being in trouble and is seeking outside assistance. With persistent rumors of terrorist sponsorship, both past and present, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for Chavez to employ groups such as FARC for domestic strong arm tactics to help prop up his damaged regime. Chavez has survived these tests in the past, but whether he can continue to do so in the face of rising unpopularity remains to be seen.

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Features scheduled programming that showcases expert faculty in the emergency management, law enforcement, and health care industries.

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By William Tucker

Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

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By William Tucker
Whenever the U.S. carries out a drone strike in Pakistan's restive border areas rumors are quick to follow. Such is the case with the current leader of the Pakistani Taliban Hakimullah Mehsud. The U.S. struck two sites in Northern Waziristan on the 13th and 14th of January targeting the TTP leader only to have Mehsud release two audio tapes confirming his survival, but the rumors of his death still continue. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Pakistan do not have reliable intelligence assets in the area leaving the answer to the questions of known terrorist leaders' welfare elusive. As Professor Hesterman pointed out in her post on January 22nd, the intelligence gap is well known. This gap forces those of us that rely on open sources to wait for confirmation from the Taliban as to the current status of Mehsud.View image

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By William Tucker

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing, intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Osama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks, and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new message, bin Laden had the following to say:

"In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama. May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point, U.S intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape, while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and released the following statement: "This phrase, 'Peace be upon those who follow guidance', appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked."

This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden. However, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the Al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to severe falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an unusually high number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK's no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. In fact, the Director of National Intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, expects another attempt in the next three to six months. Al-Qaeda may be taking hits worldwide, but they remain a force to be reckoned with.

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By Irvin Varkonyi, Adjunct Professor
American Public University System

In the wake of the tragic earthquake in Haiti, the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN) is working to identify relief needs together with major humanitarian relief agencies.

ALAN was formed through the collaborative efforts of Logistics associations including the American Society of Transportation and Logistics, Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, APICS, the Association for Operations Professionals, and others. ALAN works closely with US Government agencies such as FEMA and DHS as well as International Organizations such as the United Nations.

Continue reading "Logistics Plays a Crucial Role in Haiti Response and Recovery" »

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By William Tucker

In my previous post, I stated, The government of Haiti has a difficult time enforcing the writ of the state in the best of times and nearly ceased functioning in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. Haiti has had a troubled past to say the least, and is currently playing host to a UN peacekeeping contingent to help manage a country that has been divided all too frequently.

Continue reading "Haiti: the UN's Role in Emergency Management" »

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By William Tucker

It has now been several weeks since a catastrophic earthquake destroyed much of Port-au-Prince Haiti and while the international response was rapid, at least it appeared that way to an outside observer, the relief efforts were really hindered by lack of coordination. As is often the case, the U.S. Military took the lead on the logistics end which eventually required taking control of the airport and repairing the main port of the Haitian capital to ensure that supplies moved into the disaster area as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, the U.S. was roundly criticized for this action. This post will not deal with the international wrangling that followed this criticism, we'll leave that to the pundits, rather we will instead focus on the need for the incident command system to be implemented in international crisis responses to better serve the affected region and limit the jurisdictional tug of war.

In the U.S., arguments over jurisdiction are common in response to a crisis, and responding internationally further complicates the issue. The government of Haiti has a difficult time enforcing the writ of the state in the best of times and nearly ceased functioning in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. This, of course, brings to light several issues that must be addressed for future international disaster response. Who serves as an incident commander when the government of the afflicted nation ceases to function? What about security concerns? Can the United Nations assume a governing role and coordinate a disaster response?

Throughout the week we'll address these questions and hopefully lead into a thought provoking discussion.

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In a live webcast February 17, Capt. Wendy Lawrence, (USN, Ret.) Professor of Space Physiology at American Public University, and Dr. Jim Reilly, Dean of the School of Science and Technology, will discuss their personal experiences of Living in Space.

Topics discussed will inlcude:

• Living and working onboard the International Space Station
• Long-term effects of living in space has on the human body and mind, including challenges such as bone and muscle mass loss.
• Traveling in space - the journey from liftoff to re-entry
• How education will shape the future of the U.S. space program and exploration of interplanetary space

Additionally, this live webcast will include a question and answer session. For more information about the event, visit http://www.studyatapu.com/web-cast/space.

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By Jenni Hesterman, Counterterrorism Expert

Counter Terror Forum

The Center for a New American Security released a report today entitled "Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan".

Here is the opening statement and it is an attention grabber:

"Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy. Having focused the overwhelming majority of its collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, the vast intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which U.S. and allied forces operate and the people they seek to persuade. Ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects and the levels of cooperation among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers - whether aid workers or Afghan soldiers - U.S. intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision-makers seeking the knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage a successful counterinsurgency."

In the report, Major General Michael Flynn, the Deputy Chief of Staff of Intelligence for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is critical of U.S. intelligence agencies and the overall effort in Afghanistan. The BBC picked up on this report with headlines like: "US spies in Afghanistan are clueless, says intelligence chief"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6976278.ece

The release of the report, the recent bombing of a CIA outpost in Afghanistan and associated counterintelligence failures, and the inability of U.S. agencies to "connect the dots" on the Christmas Day airline bombing attempt has put intelligence and law enforcement agencies under scrutiny.

I am interested to hear your comments on this report, and the events of the last few weeks. Are we resource-constrained? Are the cultural differences between agencies insurmountable? Is information shared, traded or withheld?

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By Jenni Hesterman, Counterterrorism Expert
Counter Terror Forum

Augustin Roberto "Bobby" Salcedo was a school board member and assistant high school principal. Salcedo, 33, was abducted and killed by gunmen while visiting his wife's family in Mexico (Gomez Palacio) for the holidays. He was found dead Thursday in the northern state of Durango by Mexican authorities, his brother Carlos Salcedo said. Salcedo was abducted while he and his wife had dinner. Five other men were abducted at the same time and sadly, all were brutally executed.

Continue reading "Kidnapping on the Rise: California Asst Principal Abducted and Killed in Mexico" »

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By Jenni Hesterman
www.counterterrorforum.com

I found this very interesting interactive product on the AP website. One map illustrates the extent to which Mexican cartel activities have pushed northward into the U.S. and highlights areas controlled by the cartels in Mexico. If you click on a specific cartel, a window pops up with additional info on the cartel's leadership, etc. Other maps on this site show drug trafficking routes, the gun trade and cartel related deaths.

Continue reading "Mexican Drug Cartels - Coming to a Neighborhood Near You" »

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Dec. 16, 11:00 am - 12:00 pm ET, American Public University System (APUS) will be hosting Insights into the Current Situation and a Midstream Planning Reassessment an H1N1 emergency planning webcast that will cover the current threat, how the current knowledge affects planning and how the plan needs to be revised. In addition, the guest speakers will discuss what systems are working and lessons learned.

Guest speakers include:

• Anthony Mangeri, Professor, American Public University System, School of Public Safety and Health
• Michael Cornell, Director of the Center for Emergency Preparedness, Owens Community College
• Nancy Mangieri, Epidemiologist at Bergen County Department of Health Services

For more information, visit http://www.studyatapu.com/web-cast/h1n1/index.htm.

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By Professor Jenni Hesterman, Counterterrorism Expert
(source: Information Security Resources)

Last Thursday, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee opened hearings on the Fort Hood tragedy.

One of the topics on the agenda is the rising domestic terror threat. But this alarm was sounded months ago, in Apr 09, when DHS released their report entitled Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment.

The report was heavily covered in the news, but only for these statements:

"Rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to exploit their skills and knowledge derived from military training and combat."

and:

"The possible passage of new restrictions on firearms and the return of military veterans facing significant challenges reintegrating into their communities could lead to the potential emergence of terrorist groups or lone wolf extremists capable of carrying out violent attacks."

DHS was called out by veteran's groups, Congress, et al. Janet Napolitano had to apologize for it.

The pundits thought it was somehow political - a complete insult to our hardworking GS employees who have been at their desks, analyzing threats for decades.

The sad part -- the statements are exactly on target. Veterans will be recruited due to their skill set.

There has been firearms and ammo "hoarding" and returning veterans may have issues that lead to violent acts.

Timothy McVeigh was a military veteran sworn to protect and defend the very country he attacked. And due to the veteran controversy, the rest of the report was ignored.

In the meantime, we've had several high profile domestic terror issues in our country.

Najibullah Zazi, an al Qaeda sympathist and now confirmed operative, was arrested for conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction in our country.

The FBI infiltrated two separate domestic terror plots.

The subjects tried to deploy the dummy devices purchased from agents-one outside a federal courthouse in Springfield, Ill and another in a Dallas skyscraper.

And it has come to light that two North Carolina men under arrest since July on international terrorism charges were also planning to kill U.S. military personnel.

Anarchists stormed Pittsburgh, causing fear among the citizens and casting new light on their anti-government agenda.

David Headley from Chicago, formerly known as Daood Gilani, was recruiting terrorists abroad to conduct operations.

And Nadal Hasan opened fires into a crowd of unarmed citizens (not combatants) - on the former sanctuary of a military base.

We shouldn't be surprised by these events. The DHS report was an absolute gem - it was actionable intelligence.

For the first time, we had current analysis and it was in the hands of our civilian populace, which could be a powerful force multiplier in this fight -- if educated about the threat.

The report was pure and unfiltered. It wasn't routed through every last agency for comment (and watered down accordingly).

It is a shame the reaction in our country centered around two very true and factual statements, instead of the shock and concern about the rising threat among us.

Thanks to the overreaction, I am afraid we will never see a report like that again in the public domain.

Here is a link to the entire report, I highly suggest you take a look: http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf.

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The Philadelphia University Disaster Medicine and Management Program and the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response are teaming up to present a workshop designed to teach how to manage local disasters caused by global terror or natural causes using real scenarios re-enacted on site.

The exercise will be held January 26, 2010. Registration is $150. That includes participation in the workshop, networking events, handouts, CD-ROM of materials, completion certificate, and refreshments.

To register, or for additional information, contact Annetta Solarski solarskia@philau.edu.

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Do you know what you would do if disaster strikes? Spike TV's new original series Surviving Disaster, led by Navy SEAL Cade Courtley, vividly takes viewers through catastrophic scenarios and arms them with the knowledge needed to survive the unthinkable. Courtley tackles worst-case scenarios and equips viewers with the practical information needed to save their own lives and the lives of their loved ones.

Full episodes are available online.

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To identify dangerous people, the Transportation Security Administration has stationed specially trained Behavior Detection Officers at 161 U.S. airports, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale. The officers, who can be anywhere from the parking garage to the gate, try to spot passengers with an unusual level of nervousness or stress.

Read full article from National Terror Alert

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