By William Tucker
Several news reports have made the claim that Egyptian security forces have stepped up their presence in the Sinai Peninsula as a result of the increased presence of al-Qaeda militants. Each of these reports appears to stem from a recent television interview with an Egyptian security official that made the claim. In a rebuttal, the governor of Northern Sinai immediately refuted the claim that security forces are battling al-Qaeda, but he did not give a specific reason for the increased security presence. Although the claim of 400 al-Qaeda militants operating in the Sinai is dubious, it is true that al-Qaeda has been trying to gain a foothold in the peninsula for years. Furthermore, this claim serves the political purpose of both Israel and Egypt in the wake of recent political uncertainty.
As al-Qaeda’s insurgent coalition fell apart in Iraq many of the better trained militants left the country for Africa. Iraqi intelligence and the intelligence services of several African countries expressed alarm at this trend as it meant skilled militants may give indigenous insurgencies a boost in capabilities. Indeed, attacks, often referred to as the hallmarks of al-Qaeda, occurred in Northern and Eastern Africa which has since tapered off. As Egypt is going through slight political change, it is certainly possible that some militants have relocated to the Sinai to make contact with al-Qaeda affiliates in Gaza and Egypt proper. With the recent announcement that the Rafah crossing is going to remain permanently open, the presence of al-Qaeda will present a problem, and an opportunity, for Egypt and Israel.
The closed nature of the Gaza Strip, and the intransigent nature of the Hamas led government in the territory, has been problematic for intelligence collection. Now that the border is open, the small al-Qaeda affiliates will have room to maneuver and make contact with their brethren elsewhere. Hamas has repeatedly tried to keep a lid on al-Qaeda in Gaza, but with the crossing into Egypt now open al-Qaeda’s presence will become more problematic for all governments in the area. But there is the other side of the coin to consider. With communications comes the probability that they will be intercepted and with coordination comes increased visibility. Opening the Rafah crossing may well improve the intelligence collection abilities on al-Qaeda groups in the area. And of course with a militant threat, Egypt will claim a need for continued military assistance from the U.S. Israel on the other hand, can demonstrate that meeting a key demand from the U.S. on negotiations with the Palestinians opens the nation up to other, more complex threats.
Map of Sinai: National Geographic
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