By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
An agreement on a partial ceasefire in Syria has been reached between the U.S. and Russia according to the U.S. State Department and is meant to be implemented by Friday, Feb 26.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has echoed this statement, but added that further discussions between the Russian and U.S. presidents will take place to flesh out further details. The High Negotiations Committee (HNC), a Saudi-backed rebel coalition, has been included in the ceasefire and has until Friday at noon to approve the measures involved in the ceasefire.
Related: Syria’s Assad assures Putin in phone call on truce details
Talks were originally scheduled to take place last week, but immediately broke down due to the plethora of diverging interests in the conflict. Furthermore, the HNC wanted a ban on the targeting of civilians in Russian airstrikes; however, Moscow follows the Assad regime’s position that any rebel group not aligned with the Baathist rulers in Damascus is a ‘terrorist.’ As the last week has shown with the Russian bombings of several hospitals and schools, the definition of terrorism is broadly applied.
The current problem involves enforcing a ceasefire with multiple parties who are engaged militarily in Syria but have wildly diverging interests. It’s important to point out that multiple talks aimed at ending the Syrian war, or at least implementing a ceasefire, have failed at various points since the conflict began in 2011. Making matters worse, the inclusion of more parties to the conflict has only increased – further complicating negotiations. At this point the two main powers – Russia and the U.S. – are speaking bilaterally and cutting out other parties that have been engaged in the conflict since the beginning. As an example of this, consider that Syrian president Assad hasn’t been included in the U.S./Russia discussions.
The parties deliberately removed themselves from the diplomatic process. Terrorist groups such as al-Nursa and the Islamic State (IS) have been sidelined for obvious reasons – not that they would want to be part of the process to begin with. It’s worth discussing this because both groups are widely held by the majority of parties to the Syrian conflict to be firmly in the terrorist camp. Indeed, one of the few deals of this ceasefire made public so far allow for the military targeting of both groups during the cessation of hostilities. Several suicide attacks carried out by IS today killed 150 people clearly demonstrates why they will continue to be targeted.
Turkey’s Position
Other militant movements like the Kurdish People’s Protection (YPG) have made gains in the Syrian conflict against both Syrian loyalists and IS, but this small measure of success has prompted Turkey to launch artillery barrages against the group unless they move too close to establishing an independent Kurdish state. The YPG can accept the terms of the ceasefire, but their conflict isn’t just about Assad. It’s also about survival and keeping the expansionist IS at bay.
Related: Turkey blames Kurdish rebels, Syria for Ankara attack
For its part, Turkey sees its conflict with Kurdish separatists – whether they reside in Turkey proper or Iraq and Syria – as separate from the Syrian conflict and it’s unclear if they view the ceasefire as relating to their interests. Ankara does want to ensure that ethnic Turks in Syria are protected, but they have little recourse against Russia who has been actively targeting this sect. Turkey’s interests are conflicting and this is simply indicative of the tough environment to their south.
Assad’s Perspective
When it comes to Assad there is potential that this ceasefire may harm his interests. Russia came into the Syrian conflict less to assist Assad and more to alleviate the strain Russia was enduring elsewhere. Assad’s forces have certainly benefited from the Russian air cover in reasserting the writ of Damascus in the north of Syria, and it isn’t far-fetched to say that Assad is finally starting to win his war. But without Russian airstrikes and an inability to push into cities like Aleppo, Assad will soon find his government at a disadvantage. Assad is the closest he’s been to retaking large portions of Syria back from the numerous rebel groups and the ceasefire will put a stop to much of that. It’s likely that Assad’s broad definition of terrorism will come into play as he is forced to violate the ceasefire to maintain his position. Otherwise the advantage afforded to him from Russian support will be squandered.
Syrian Outlook: The U.S. and Russia Find Some Common Ground
Washington has been hard pressed to provide leadership in bringing the Syrian conflict to an end, but has been hesitant to do so given the lackluster interventions in Iraq and Libya. In this vein Washington will likely be more amenable to Russian demands given that Moscow may be willing to concede some ground as well. This applies particularly to Ukraine and the rapid decline of the Russian economy. Neither power has a winning hand, and the status quo isn’t exactly hurting the U.S., though it is stretching Russia.
Essentially, both Russia and the U.S. are willing to talk about Syria, and even make concessions, but it isn’t clear that they can rein in the parties to the conflict that they support. Russia backing off of supporting Assad’s forces with airstrikes certainly hurts Damascus, and Washington pulling on strings to pull back on Kurdish gains – yet again – will not be an easy task. Furthermore, Iran and Saudi Arabia are at loggerheads throughout the Middle East and neither one wants to make any concessions. Russia and the U.S. can call it a day and head home, but Iran and the Saudi’s will continue to struggle for regional supremacy out of necessity.
The complexity of the Syrian war cannot be overstated and the parties involved have too much to lose if they are forced to pull back no matter how much the U.S. and Russia, and much of the rest of the world for that matter, wants them to. This ceasefire will likely be broken if it can even be implemented at all.
What we’ll see in the coming weeks is likely to be more of the same – the same situation that has led to innumerable refugees and over a quarter million dead – if Moscow and Washington can’t make this work. These two powers made the ceasefire deal in spite of so many others, and now the onus is on them to make it a reality.
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