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July 23, 2010 - 19:50

The Strategic Importance of the Gulf Coast

By William Tucker

riversall.gifToday's post will have a different flavor in comparison to my posts of the past few months. For the regular readers of In Homeland Security you will notice the first posting - hopefully the first of many - by AMU professor Dr. Carol Pollio who has been dispatched to the Gulf to aid in the oil spill cleanup. Dr. Pollio's article provides us with an interesting opportunity to discuss the strategic importance of the Gulf coast to the United States.

Continue reading "The Strategic Importance of the Gulf Coast" »

July 20, 2010 - 21:25

Top Secret America: Separating the Good from the Bad

By William Tucker

TSA.jpgStarting yesterday and running throughout the week, the Washington Post is running a series of articles entitled Top Secret America. The purpose of the article is to ostensively discuss the growth of the US intelligence community and the reliance on private contractors in the post-9/11 world. The authors claim that the series is two years in the making and relies heavily on first hand interviews and substantial research. In reviewing the first two articles it is easy to see that the series does indeed have an agenda, but many aspects of the content should not be dismissed. One such claim is that the US has 854,000 people with a top secret clearance. This number, if correct, is far too high. Unfortunately, the authors do not cite a source nor do they separate active clearances - those that still have needed access - from those whose access has been terminated. Regardless, this number should be investigated by the government. As far as the bad goes, the authors give locations of facilities - government and private - that conduct top secret work. This information is unnecessary for the claimed purpose of the articles and puts the lives of these people at risk. I strongly urge everybody to read these articles and leave your impressions in the comments section.

July 16, 2010 - 23:18

A Car Bomb in Mexico

By William Tucker

bomb mexico.jpgSeveral media reports out of Mexico today are claiming that the Vicente Carillo Fuentes cartel detonated a vehicle borne improvised explosive device in Ciudad Juarez. The reports thus far are all over the map and have given an accurate account of what transpired. Although some of the tactical details are beginning to emerge, this post will instead focus on the bigger picture.

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July 14, 2010 - 23:01

Intelligence Gone Wrong: Why the Analysts Underestimated Al-Shabaab

By William Tucker

"If Fazul Abdullah Mohammed continues to operate as he has in the past it is highly likely that he will be able to command the smaller al-Shabaab force in a more efficient manner than the complex alliance supporting the TFG. It is also highly likely that he will have multiple external operations planned against countries and elements supporting the TFG when and if the offensive takes place."
- William Tucker, In Homeland Security, March 13, 2010

"If al -Shabaab is indeed responsible for the attacks - as their leadership has publicly claimed - it would mark the group's first successful attack outside of Somalia and could portend future external attacks in Africa and beyond."
- DHS Intelligence Note, DHS Office of Intelligence & Analysis, July 12, 2010

Continue reading "Intelligence Gone Wrong: Why the Analysts Underestimated Al-Shabaab" »

July 13, 2010 - 22:07

National Security Implications of the BP Oil Spill

By William Tucker

The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is now in its 84th day. This spill has consumed many resources, has cost a substantial amount of money, and may have political repercussions in the near future. This comes in the middle of a global economic crisis and two wars in Asia which have already stretched US resources to their limits. This begs the question - how will this spill impact US national security? The answer is complex as the US has fought wars and dealt with tough domestic issues in the midst of global uncertainty before. Ultimately the oil spill will be a transitory thing, but in the short term its impact will be felt far beyond the borders of North America as the US struggles to meet yet another challenge. Strangely the response and impact on US national security will not come from Washington, but rather from competing nations that will use the many distractions the US is facing for their own designs.

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July 5, 2010 - 20:15

Insurgent Submarines Become more Sophisticated

By William Tucker

New Sub.jpgIn the last several years the media has picked up on the trend of drug smugglers, and even some terrorist groups, constructing and employing small submarines. On July 4, the DEA reported that they tipped off the Ecuadorian government about the presence of yet another sub being constructed in a jungle shipyard. Previous submarines that had been seized were only capable of semi-submersible travel while this new sub was capable of traveling fully submerged. The DEA described this new breakthrough as a quantum leap in the capabilities of the drug runners.

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June 27, 2010 - 15:38

5 Americans in Pakistan Sentenced to 10 Years in Jail

By Jenni Hesterman
Originally posted at Counter Terror Forum

The five American citizens from the Washington, D.C. area who traveled to Pakistan to join radical Islamists in their quest for jihad were convicted Thursday on charges of plotting terrorist attacks on Pakistan soil. They were sentenced to 10 years in prison. The men, aged 19-25, left behind a farewell video for their families in December when they departed the U.S.

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June 18, 2010 - 20:42

Russia, United Kingdom - Persistent Insurgencies

By William Tucker

Two unrelated, yet interesting, events occurred today in the world of terrorism. The first was the killing of a counterintelligence officer of Russia's FSB in Dagestan. The second event was an attempted car bombing of a police station in Northern Ireland. As stated, these are unrelated events with regards to perpetrators and targets, but they are interesting because they demonstrate that two well established first world nations have been unable to end a dangerous insurgency taking place within their respective borders. The United Kingdom has been fighting Irish groups, in one form or another, for over 800 years. Russia on the other hand has been dealing with the expansion of Islamic separatists in the Caucasus region since perhaps the Arab invasion of Persia. The actors today are not direct remnants of the original struggle, but they do show how long these issues can exist. These issues provide the U.S. with a yard stick of how long domestic and international insurgencies can last. This is especially important as the U.S. is still a comparatively young nation with far flung interests. Although the U.S. is still young its longest running conflict is still very much alive today. In 1801, Tripoli declared war on the U.S. and Washington's interest in the Middle East has not waned, nor is it likely to. In the meantime interests will clash and insurgencies, even in powerful nations, will persist.

June 17, 2010 - 14:43

Al-Shabaab Consolidating Power

By William Tucker

Somalia_map_states_regions_districts.jpgIn any geographic location, whether it is a nation-state or region, people will compete for the resources available, and militant groups are no exception. In the case of Somalia multiple groups compete for the sparse resources and of course they fight for power as well. It doesn't matter that two militant groups have the same ideology, tactical, or strategic goals - if they occupy the same region they will compete. This competition is often over territorial control, funding, weapons, training, and the occasional support from a sympathetic nation-state. Each of these elements is readily apparent in Somalia. As a failed stated, Somalia is rife with Islamic militants, criminal groups, and pirates all fighting for power against each other and the fledgling Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

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June 2, 2010 - 20:06

Washington's Challenge in the Great Game

By William Tucker

hero_wsr-cloture_LJ-0062 (2).jpgThe last few months have presented quite a challenge to the Obama administration. The domestic uptick in terrorism plots, the Korean crisis, Iranian sanctions, the Afghan war, the Iraq drawdown, and now the Israeli-Turkish spat are all consuming the foreign affairs agenda of the administration not to mention the BP oil incident and the Sestak issue in domestic affairs. Any Presidential administration will be presented with many challenges and it is unlikely that each one can be addressed with the time and effort that is needed. Typically this is where administrations either shine or fade depending on the leadership provided. If the administration is overwhelmed, and fades as a result, political uncertainty follows. Political uncertainty in the U.S. would not be confined to American borders, but would be felt globally.

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May 31, 2010 - 22:22

The Israeli Raid and the Turkish Position

By William Tucker

In the pre-dawn hours of May 31, Israeli commandos of the Shayetet 13 special operations unit boarded several vessels that were attempting to bring aid supplies to the Gaza Strip. Israel warned the organizers of the aid flotilla that they would not be allowed through the blockade Israel currently has placed on Gaza. In hopes of heading off what was shaping up to be a crisis for the Israeli government, Israel offered to take the aid into Gaza so long as it was handled by the military. This offer was refused and the crisis Israel feared has now come to fruition.

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May 26, 2010 - 20:15

YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High

By William Tucker

US_Department_of_Homeland_Security_Seal.jpgABC News is reporting that a recently released DHS Intelligence Note is stating attempted terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland in the last 9 months has surpassed the number of attempts in any previous one year period. For the loyal readers of In Homeland Security, and my previous blog the World of Terrorism, you will note that this has been an ongoing topic of mine going back to September 2009 with the most recent posts falling within the last month. Since that time we have seen the tempo of attempted attacks continue to increase while our capability to thwart these plots has diminished due to mission fatigue.

Continue reading "YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High" »

May 24, 2010 - 22:02

Jamaica under Siege: Implications for the U.S.

By William Tucker

The Associated Press is reporting that the running gun battles that touched off in Jamaica a few days ago are growing in intensity. The violence began when the ruling party in the Jamaican government dropped its objections to the extradition of drug kingpin Christopher "Dudus" Coke to the U.S. Jamaica is a nation of endemic poverty that allows criminal elements, especially in the drug trade, to flourish. Because of Jamaica's geographic location in the Gulf of Mexico it is an ideal jumping off point for moving illicit products into the U.S. In addition to the legitimate economic activity of tourism, drug money that flows into the island nation is reinvested in legitimate economic endeavors making government action against the drug kingpin a difficult undertaking.

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May 21, 2010 - 23:12

More on the Multiple Terror Plots against the U.S.

By William Tucker

CIA Director Leon Panetta and National Security Adviser Jim Jones recently traveled to Pakistan to discuss the threat posed by the Pakistani Taliban to the U.S. homeland. For those that follow the In Homeland Security blog and the readers from my former World of Terrorism blog you will likely recognize the ongoing threat posed to U.S. interests from Pakistani militants that I have discussed in the past. In regard to my past statements on the Pakistani Taliban it appears as if the recent trend in reporting and information being leaked by the U.S. government seems to validate my earlier analysis. The volume of threats posed to the U.S. homeland has been steadily increasing since last fall and show no signs of abating. The U.S. has been relatively fortunate that the attempted terror plots directed against American cities has been rather amateurish; however it is only a matter of time before someone gets it right. Because of the strain that has been put on the U.S. security establishment the need for the vigilance of the American citizenry cannot be understated.

CNN article: 'Reason to believe' Pakistani Taliban plotting to strike U.S.

Fox News Poll: U.S. Has Been Lucky in Preventing Terrorist Attacks

May 19, 2010 - 22:16

The Taliban's Strategic Problem

By William Tucker

On May 17 the Taliban struck an ISAF convoy in Kabul killing six soldiers (5 American, 1 Canadian) and 12 civilians. Today, the Taliban followed that attack with an assault on Bagram Airbase killing a U.S. contractor and wounding five soldiers. The second attack was a tactical failure for the Taliban which resulted in the death of ten of the attackers before they could detonate their suicide vests. In any kind of war attacks and counterattacks occur with regularity meaning that these attacks do not carry any real strategic or tactical value alone, but when taken together they show the Taliban still possess the ability to strike targets in and around Kabul. These attacks, successful or not, provide the Taliban with a propaganda victory.

Continue reading "The Taliban's Strategic Problem" »

May 17, 2010 - 21:41

Al-Qaeda in Yemen Issues New Threat

By William Tucker

NA-BD159_GITMO_G_20100103192100.jpgThe emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Nasir Abu Basir Al-Wuhayshi, released a new statement recently decrying the decision to either kill or capture Anwar al-Awlaki. Al-Awlaki is the radical cleric that has been linked to several of the 9/11 highjackers and more recently to the failed Christmas day bombing attempt on a commercial aircraft. He is also well known for his support of the shooting spree that took place at Ft. Hood. Recently, the Obama administration has allowed the intelligence community and the military to directly target al-Awlaki although he is a U.S. citizen because of his extensive links to terrorism.

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May 14, 2010 - 20:15

Canada Tracking Over 200 Terrorism Suspects

By William Tucker

500px-Canadian_Security_Intelligence_Service_logo.svg.jpgIn a news report that flew under the radar, Reuters reported that the head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) told a parliamentary committee that his organization was currently tracking over 200 individuals with suspected ties to al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. From a Canadian perspective this is a substantial number. Although Canada is a large country land wise it only has a population of just over 33 million and an intelligence apparatus numbering about 2500. As I discussed in Wednesday's post terrorist groups use multiple names to disguise their activities and confuse law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Taking the report that Canada is tracking over 200 individuals it certainly looks as if CSIS has its hands full. Investigating terrorism, like criminals or foreign intelligence officers, takes a tremendous amount of man power. When we are in a phase in which terrorist activity is on the upswing it won't take long before people begin to get stretched and mistakes will be made.

May 13, 2010 - 23:48

Mitigating the Next Successful Terrorist Attack

By William Tucker

Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote an interesting piece urging Americans to prepare for the next terrorist attack that succeeds. It is an unfortunate fact of life that terrorism is an ongoing phenomenon despite our best efforts at fighting overseas and hardening targets here at home. In spite of these efforts terrorists still seek to strike the U.S. homeland as occurred May 1st with the attempted bombing in Times Square. In that event it was not law enforcement or intelligence that disrupted the attack, but rather the incompetence of the would-be bomber. In other words the U.S. dodged a bullet.

When the next attack occurs and succeeds it is vital that life go on as soon as possible. This frequently occurs in the face of suicide bombers in Israel and the more recent attack on the Moscow subway system. The Moscow rail reopened the afternoon after the attack allowing people to go about their lives all the while dealing a psychological blow to the terrorists that launched the attack. Terrorists seek to disrupt as much as they aspire to kill and propagate their agenda. Moving back to a sense of normalcy removes the effectiveness of these weapons. This is not to say that periods of mourning should be ignored, but rather the U.S. needs to foster resiliency when facing a terrorist threat in a similar fashion that is seen following a natural disaster. We can't stop every disaster, but we can certainly mitigate the effects.

May 12, 2010 - 21:28

Tempo of Attempted Terror Plots Keeps Rising

By William Tucker

Back in September 2009 I warned on my old World of Terrorism blog that the increase in attempted terror attacks against the U.S. was rising at an alarming rate. I followed that warning with another in January noting that the tempo was unusually high. In both posts I reminded my readers that we must keep our eyes open for something bigger on the horizon and since that time we have had the mass murder at Ft. Hood, Texas and the more recent bombing attempt in Times Square. My words from September 2009 have become increasingly relevant:

"Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture."

Continue reading "Tempo of Attempted Terror Plots Keeps Rising" »

May 11, 2010 - 19:23

Move to Designate the Pakistani Taliban a FTO

By William Tucker

Several U.S. Senators wrote Secretary of State Hillary Clinton requesting that the Pakistani Taliban be added to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Earlier I noted the difficulty in doing so; however this does not mean I am opposed to the action. It is certainly something that could be done, but this would be an empty gesture at best. The U.S. is already targeting the multiple elements of the Pakistani Taliban and has used various avenues to attack funding of terrorist groups including those aligned with the Taliban. Part of the problem with designating the TTP a FTO is the fractious nature of the group making identification of individuals affiliated with the group nearly impossible. Taking the step to designate the TTP may have some benefit, but other steps are needed including disrupting support from foreign intelligence services.


May 9, 2010 - 21:37

The Strategic View of Terrorism

By William Tucker

One of the maxims of counterterrorism professionals is the belief that terrorism does not occur in a vacuum. Students of political violence may recognize the statement, but the description of this statement often varies depending on who is queried. I take a very general point of view and often define the maxim as simply meaning support. Terrorists need some form of support if they are to be successful and this doesn't always mean state sponsorship, although for the purpose of this post that is the topic we will be following.

Terrorism doesn't occur spontaneously. Those individuals or groups that decide to engage in political violence must learn the craft or they will fail quickly. It is also important to remember that just because an attack is successful doesn't mean that a single tactical advantage will transform into a strategic victory. Take for instance the Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. In the simplest terms Kaczynski was anti-technology and preferred to act alone. Because of this it took time for him to create a mail bomb that was effective and even longer for a bomb to actually kill someone. In the end Kaczynski was a failure because his ideas did not motivate a larger trend nor was he able to cause enough havoc to capitalize on. Lone wolves can be dangerous, but they hardly have the ability or effectiveness to garner the attention of foreign intelligence services for recruitment.

Continue reading "The Strategic View of Terrorism" »

May 8, 2010 - 00:16

Problems Designating the Taliban Movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

By William Tucker

Several Days ago Professor Jenni Hesterman authored a piece entitled The Taliban: Time to Make it a Designated Terror Group discussing the need to finally designate the Taliban as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in the wake of the failed Times Square bombing. Indeed, it seems quite strange that the Taliban have not been added to the list since elements of the movement have perpetrated terrorist acts against civilians in Pakistan and Afghanistan. There are several reasons that the Taliban have not been added to the list, but each of these reasons flow from a single point of failure; the Taliban is not an organization.

Continue reading "Problems Designating the Taliban Movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization" »

May 5, 2010 - 20:34

Iranian Espionage in the Gulf States

By William Tucker

Iran race for regional supremacy_Page_27_Image_0001.jpgSeveral months ago I stated that Iranian intelligence activities would become more aggressive in the face of increased sanctions. Since Iran has still refused to comply with the UNSC and other concerned nations the regime believes, albeit privately, that some sort of military action may be taken to halt the program. Whenever a nation feels a substantial amount of pressure, such as an increase in sanctions, they will inevitably resort to increased intelligence activities to discern the intentions of their adversaries. In Iran's case they will certainly be conducting surveillance on U.S. military installations in the Persian Gulf region, and possibly domestic targets should armed hostilities take place. Iran is well known for its support of militant groups throughout the Middle East and Africa.

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April 29, 2010 - 23:45

The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents

By William Tucker

070411_EFP_vmed_530a.widec.jpgThe Pentagon released a report today on the status of the conflict in Afghanistan. The report, entitled Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, contained what would be expected in any military report; however there was one nugget in particular that caught my attention. In a section containing bullet points on the insurgency's strengths and weaknesses one of the claimed weaknesses is an over-reliance on external support. Recently, a Taliban commander stated that the movement had received advanced training and supplies which accounted for the increased operational capacity of the insurgency. In a report released by the Pentagon earlier this month it was claimed that weapons seized from insurgents in Afghanistan contained Iranian markings and recent manufacture dates. Taken together the Taliban are claiming that Iranian support has allowed their insurgency to continue. If the report released today is to be believed, then it follows that the loss of Iranian support could seriously damage the Taliban.

Continue reading "The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents" »

April 28, 2010 - 21:48

Lampooning Muhammad and Special Police Protection

By William Tucker

The New York City Police Department has stepped up security outside the office building of the television network Comedy Central after receiving threats over a South Park Episode depicting the Muslim prophet Muhammad in a bear suit. Death threats are a common occurrence for many television networks and all other forms of media that provide content that some groups may deem offensive. In November 2004, Theo van Gogh was murdered for his portrayal of women in the Islamic faith in the short film Submission. Furthermore, in 2005 a Dutch newspaper printed several cartoons criticizing Muhammad that led to massive riots throughout the Middle East resulting in the deaths of over 100 people and destruction of Dutch embassies in Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Some media outlets have become so concerned over the prospect of violence that they have refrained from printing materials that could be controversial.

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April 26, 2010 - 22:39

Al-Shabaab Fights Pirates, AQAP Fights British Diplomat

By William Tucker

somalia-map.jpgTwo events today provide the opportunity to discuss al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the symbiotic relationship between the two terror groups. Coming first out of Yemen was news that a suicide bomber attempted to strike the British ambassador's vehicle while he was driving to work. According to reports the Ambassador took great lengths to vary the route he took to work, but because of traffic congestion the bomber was able to get close enough to detonate near the Ambassador's vehicle. Yemeni officials have said that the bomber was the only casualty in the attack.

Continue reading "Al-Shabaab Fights Pirates, AQAP Fights British Diplomat" »

April 23, 2010 - 21:20

Iran Conducts 'Prophet 5' War Games in Persian Gulf

By William Tucker

Iran Strait of Hormuz 2004.jpgThe Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is holding their regular war games, but this time the focus is on the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke in the Persian Gulf through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows and is a major artery into Iraq for U.S. military operations. Should a military attack occur against Iran's nuclear sites the clerical regime has threatened to use several different measures at its disposal to close the strait. In this exercise the IRGC is using naval, ground and air forces to demonstrate that they maintain some capability to carry out this threat. Unlike Operation Praying Mantis, a short naval engagement between Iran and the U.S., Iran is likely to engage U.S. warships in asymmetric warfare using small speed boats laden with explosives. The Iranian military also has several batteries of surface to surface missiles in the area that are capable of striking U.S. targets in the vicinity including the 5th Fleet in Bahrain. Ultimately the U.S. Navy is far superior in military capability and can mitigate this threat, but any traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz can have severe economic repercussions worldwide.

Continue reading "Iran Conducts 'Prophet 5' War Games in Persian Gulf" »

April 22, 2010 - 15:27

South Korea Blames North for Sinking of Warship

By William Tucker

korea1_1621175c.jpgThe South Korean warship Cheonan was struck by external explosives, possibly torpedoes, when it sunk on March 26 of this year. Part of the ship was recently salvaged and according to investigators there is no doubt that the explosion occurred outside of the vessel making the occurrence of an accident unlikely. According to North Korean defectors, the attack on the Cheonan was personally ordered by Kim Jong-Il in retaliation for a naval skirmish that occurred in 2009. If the reports from these defectors and South Korean intelligence are accurate this places Seoul in a difficult position.

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April 19, 2010 - 19:47

Al-Qaeda in Iraq's Two Top Leaders Killed

By William Tucker

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced earlier today the elimination of the two top leaders of the al-Qaeda movement in Iraq. They were Abu Ayyub al-Masri, leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic State of Iraq. During the U.S. surge both men, primarily al-Masri, were able to launch attacks and survive the constant hounding by U.S. Special Forces. According to news reports both men were killed in the same safe house in Thar Thar region of Anbar province. According to the Long War Journal an additional 16 individuals were arrested following yesterday's raid.

Videos after the jump

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April 18, 2010 - 21:59

Taliban Reinforcing Presence in Kandahar

By William Tucker

The Associated Press held an interview with a Taliban commander claiming that the insurgent movement was moving additional troops and planting IED's in anticipation of a NATO offensive in Kandahar this summer. The commander, known only as Mubeen, claimed to have the support of the local population in the southern Afghan city which is dominated by the Pashtu. It is possible that his claim is correct as the Taliban movement has long called Kandahar home. In any counterinsurgency campaign the struggle is not limited to combat, but rather focused on the struggle to gain a populations trust. In Kandahar this will be an uphill battle for NATO forces.

In most asymmetric battles the indigenous force can often wait out the occupying force, or the locals can engage in low level warfare in an attempt to move up the time table. That being said, both NATO and the Taliban have a problem. NATO must eventually leave while the Taliban have been significantly weakened and there is guarantee that they possess the strength to retake the country once NATO withdraws. The Kandahar offensive will provide an interesting metric that the future of Afghanistan can be measured against.

April 15, 2010 - 23:22

Syria Transfers Scud Missiles to Hezbollah

By William Tucker

Nassrallah, Assad, Ahmadinejad1.pngU.S. and Israeli intelligence services have confirmed that Syria transferred several Scud 'B' missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is certainly a strange development, and as such, we'll take apart the implications. But before we get to the military aspect it is probably best to discuss the rationale of the al-Assad regime in Damascus for taking such a provocative step knowing full well that western intelligence agencies would pick up on the transfer.

Syrian President Bashir al-Assad came under fire from the west following the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri because all indications pointed to Syrian complicity. As a result the U.S. removed its ambassador to Syria and has only recently considered reestablishing full diplomatic ties. In the years following the assassination several nations, most notably France and Turkey, attempted to use engagement rather than isolation to change Syria's behavior. While this did help to initiate peace talks between Israel and Syria, Damascus has chosen to remain a rogue actor and state sponsor of terrorism. This is partially because in the midst of engagement Syria kept taking provocative actions only to have the engagement effort intensify. In essence, Syria was able to support terrorism without punishment and kept pressing the west for concessions before Damascus would change its behavior.

Continue reading "Syria Transfers Scud Missiles to Hezbollah" »

April 13, 2010 - 16:46

Israel Warns of Terror Attacks in the Sinai

By William Tucker

sinai-750.jpgThe Israeli prime minister's anti-terror office issued a statement today urging all Israelis to leave the Sinai Peninsula immediately because of credible information regarding attempts by terrorists to kidnap Israeli citizens. The PM's anti-terror office has a standing warning against visiting the Sinai; however many Israeli's simply choose to ignore their government on this issue. The Sinai is usually a hotbed of terrorist activity by Palestinian groups and other anti-Israeli militants, and as such we should take this warning seriously as the Sinai is a popular tourist destination for many westerners.

In 2004, the Tala Hilton Hotel, a popular resort for Israeli and western tourists, was attacked by Palestinian militants resulting in 34 dead and many injured. With tensions between Palestinians and Israeli increasing as of late it is possible that the most radical of the Palestinian movement may choose to attack tourist destinations again. Furthermore, the Egyptian government has had its hands full with Hezbollah terror cells operating on the peninsula as well. In the near future the political environment in Egypt will be a cause of concern because of upcoming elections and an aging President it is possible that political instability could become a real issue in the region.

Map credit: National Geographic

April 12, 2010 - 19:54

Target: Anwar al-Aulaqi

By William Tucker

Aulaqi.jpgBy now you've probably heard that the White House has approved the targeting of Anwar al-Aulaqi by both the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command and the CIA. Al-Aulaqi is a U.S. citizen with ties to two of the 9/11 highjackers, the Ft. Hood shooter Nidal Hassan, and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the man who attempted to bomb a plane this last Christmas. Some Americans are concerned that the President has allowed the targeting of a U.S. citizen by the military and the CIA without due process. While this is a legitimate concern that has been written about at length in the media it does not address why this information was made public to begin with.

When planning an intelligence operation it is usually unwise to broadcast your intentions unless the broadcast is part of the mission. With the targeting of al-Aulaqi this reasoning is unclear, but it has resulted in a response from al-Aulaqi's tribe in Yemen. It is possible that the purpose behind making the U.S. intentions public is to force al-Aulaqi to respond, thus allowing intelligence a chance at narrowing down his location. Al-Aulaqi is a public figure that is known to actively preach jihad to the younger Muslim generation and with him in hiding al-Qaeda's recruiting efforts could be hurt. It is also possible that U.S. intelligence is attempting to drive a wedge between al-Aulaqi and his tribe by threatening this targeting action. Al-Aulaqi is also not an experienced militant which means that without someone in Yemen providing him shelter he could easily make a mistake leading to his demise.

April 2, 2010 - 23:32

30 State Governor's receive Threatening Letter's

By William Tucker

According to the FBI, about 30 Governor's representing both major political parties have received letters demanding that these politicians leave office in three days or be removed. The group that sent the letters calls itself the Guardians of the Republics and claims via its website its intention to restore America through nonviolent means. Furthermore, the group claims to have the support of high ranking officials in the U.S. military in carrying out these goals. While these claims by domestic extremists are nothing new (in fact, they are identical to most of the known anti-government groups operating in the U.S.), they do deserve examination.

Continue reading "30 State Governor's receive Threatening Letter's" »

April 1, 2010 - 15:11

Iranian Nuclear Scientist Defects to U.S.

By William Tucker

Amiri_703556a.jpgIranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri has reportedly defected to the U.S. following a mysterious disappearance in Saudi Arabia last year during the Hajj. Prior to his defection, Amiri had worked on the Iranian nuclear program at Malek Ashtar University in Tehran which is run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is likely that Amiri has provided valuable intelligence to the U.S. on the Iranian nuclear program, but revealing his defection so publicly comes with several pitfalls that may impact intelligence collection on the Iranians in the future.

Continue reading "Iranian Nuclear Scientist Defects to U.S." »

March 30, 2010 - 18:34

More on the Moscow Bombings

By William Tucker

The Times of London is reporting today that the Russian FSB is investigating whether Monday's bombing of the Moscow Metro is related to the killing of Said Buryatsky, the spiritual advisor to Dokka Umarov, the Emir of the Islamist Caucasus Emirate. Furthermore, Russian authorities are concerned that 21 members of the Black Widows are operating in Russia and planning their next strike. With these announcements it appears that the Kremlin is preparing the public for future operations in the Caucasus.

This presents a problem for Moscow. During the Second Chechen War, Russian intelligence set up a political apparatus that balances the more powerful clans in Chechnya by spreading political and military power among them. Any major operation in Chechnya could put this arrangement at risk if Moscow moves too quickly. In an attempt to avoid this it is likely that the FSB will focus on eliminating Umarov understanding that he will be replaced. This is fine with Moscow so long as the resulting infighting among the clan's remains confined to the North Caucasus.


March 29, 2010 - 15:35

A Railway Bombing in Moscow

By William Tucker

The zone of military operations will be extended to the territory of Russia. Praise be to Allah, the past year has shown us, and also to all who had some doubts, to Putin and Nurgaliyev (Russian interior minister -KC) that the Brigade of Martyrs, Riyad-us-Saliheen, has been really recreated and is in action. We witnessed many special operations by this Brigade during the last year. The Martyrs' Brigade is replenished with the best among the best of the Mujahedeen and if the Russians do not understand that the war will come to their streets, that the war will come to their homes, so it is worse for them. Blood will no longer be limited to our (Caucasus) cities and towns. The war is coming to their cities. If Russians think the war only happens on television, somewhere far away in the Caucasus where it can't reach them, Insha'Allah (God willing), we plan to show them that the war will return to their homes. Therefore, the zone of military actions will be extended to all Russia, Insha'Allah, and I hope that this year we, Insha'Allah, with Allah's help, could expect successful operations.

Caucasus Emirate's Emir Dokka Abu Usman via Kavkaz Center on 3 February 2010

_47552808_moscow_blasts_466.gifDuring rush hour this morning two suicide bombers struck the Moscow subway killing 38 and wounding over 60. The first attack occurred just before 8:00 a.m. local time at Lubyanka station with the second attack occurring about 40 minutes later striking Park Kultury station. Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Federal Security Services (FSB), said terrorists from Russia's North Caucasus may have been involved in the attacks. Adding to this, Vladimir Markin of the Prosecutor's Investigative Committee stated that two female suicide bombers were suspected of the attack. Some news outlets are claiming that the heads of the bombers have been recovered which will help in identification if this is indeed accurate.

Continue reading "A Railway Bombing in Moscow" »

March 25, 2010 - 14:31

Is Cuba Still a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

By William Tucker

Each year the U.S. State Department is required by Congress to revise and update the State Sponsors of Terrorism listing. Those countries currently on the list include Cuba, Iran, Sudan, and Syria. The nations of Iran, Sudan and Syria are easily justifiable for inclusion on the list, but Cuba's presence stands out. Cuba was first added to the list in 1982 for supporting Marxist terror groups throughout Latin America, but according to the U.S. government this support has since ceased. Currently, Havana plays host to some individuals designated as terrorists by the Spanish and Colombian governments which has strained relations with both countries. Other than acting as an intermediary between militant groups and the besieged countries, Cuba no longer supplies arms or money to groups engaged in terrorism. The U.S. intelligence community supports this position.

Continue reading "Is Cuba Still a State Sponsor of Terrorism?" »

March 24, 2010 - 21:52

Saudi Arabia Disrupts Terror Plot - Massive Arrests

By William Tucker

Oil Gas Fields Map.gifSaudi Arabian security affairs spokesman Mansour al-Turki announced today that the Kingdom had arrested 113 militants - half of which are Yemeni. According to the KSA government, the militants were divided into three cells with two cells planning suicide attacks against oil and gas infrastructure. The Saudis did not come out and identify al-Qaeda by name, but they did use language typical of government officials that indicate al-Qaeda was indeed behind the plot. The size, scope and ambition of the plot show that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is still determined and capable of launching attacks regionally.

That being said there are other elements that need to be explored. For instance, the KSA government stated that in addition to the Yemenis involved in the plot individuals from Bangladesh, Eritrea and Somalia were also arrested. This is an interesting development because in the past two years al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been working directly with al-Shabaab in Somalia sharing information and cooperating in training and recruiting. Furthermore, the government of Eritrea has been accused of supporting al-Shabaab to counter Ethiopian influence with other Somalia militant groups. Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffered a large setback today the larger al-Qaeda network in the region is hardly a spent force.

Map credit: U.S. Department of Energy

March 22, 2010 - 23:00

Navy Warns of Al-Qaeda Threats to Yemeni Waters

By William Tucker

The Office of Naval Intelligence is once again warning that al-Qaeda intends to strike out at ocean traffic in the waters between Yemen and Somalia. Threats to waterborne traffic in the waters off Yemen are not new and the Navy reissues warnings to all sea traffic in the area when chatter picks up. In fact, a similar warning was issued about six months ago over the same region. What makes this warning stick out is its timing. Al-Qaeda in Yemen has suffered several setbacks as of late, especially coming on the heels of the failed Christmas day airline bombing, and it is not a stretch to believe that they may launch an attack to stay relevant. We must keep in mind that Somalia piracy has been effective even with a large international naval presence operating in the area. Furthermore, these pirates have managed to highjack ships by pulling their skiffs next to the target vessel in order to board - a similar tactic used to hit the USS Cole in 2000 and the M/V Limburg in October 2002.


March 21, 2010 - 21:47

Taliban Execute American 'Spies'

By William Tucker

Several media outlets are reporting that the Taliban have executed four American spies. The bodies of the suspected spies were found in the village of Mir Ali in North Waziristan accompanied with the note stating that, "Spies are spies, and they will come to the same fate as these men. Do not spy for America." It is not news that the Taliban are executing individuals they suspect of spying, but it does give us an opportunity to discuss why the Taliban suspect they have spies in their midst.

Continue reading "Taliban Execute American 'Spies'" »

March 20, 2010 - 00:07

Sudan: A New Cease-Fire Agreement

By William Tucker

Darfur_map.jpgOn March 18, the Sudanese government signed a cease fire agreement with another rebel group of the Darfur region marking yet another step toward détente among the multiple factions fighting in Sudan. Although a cease fire has been signed the multiple conflicts in Sudan will not come to an end any time soon. The Darfur region is home to several rebel groups while Southern Sudan is controlled by a secessionist movement. These challenges are complex and will not be solved overnight as the history of this conflict has seen numerous cease fires and peace agreements broken.

Sudan still faces challenges from the international community as the African nation has been used to smuggle arms to non-state actors in the Middle East along with the nations of Chad and the Central African Republic. Additionally, the Sudanese President, Omar al-Bashir, is still wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. While we can be pleased that attempts are being made in the interest of peace in Sudan, enthusiasm must be tempered as the nation still has a long way to go.

March 17, 2010 - 23:05

Terrorism and International Relations often make Strange Bedfellows

By William Tucker

I am often asked about claims in the media of Iranian support for al-Qaeda and Venezuelan support for Hezbollah and how it's possible for these politically different elements to work together. While these questions are important they are hardly the only representative relationships that exist between elements that are so different on paper its hard to believe that they would cooperate on anything. The short answer as to why these nations and terrorist groups cooperate is not so much about ideology, but rather the pursuit of a common, short term goal.

Continue reading "Terrorism and International Relations often make Strange Bedfellows" »

March 15, 2010 - 23:22

A Strange Twist in the Capture of Baradar

By William Tucker

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.jpgWhen news broke of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture one month ago the operation was hailed as a successful collaboration of Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, and yet not everyone was please with the outcome. The AP is reporting today that the arrest of Baradar infuriated Afghan President Hamid Karzai because he was working with Baradar towards holding a peace summit between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. If this report is accurate then it raises numerous questions.

U.S. policy has stated on many occasions that negotiating with reconcilable elements of the Taliban was necessary for NATO's withdrawal. Understanding this it stands to reason that there was a breakdown in communications between the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghan governments; or the U.S. and Pakistan new about Karzai's arrangement and chose to ignore it. Because of the close work between the Afghan and U.S. governments it is unlikely that the U.S. did not know that Karzai was speaking with Baradar. On the other hand it is possible that the U.S. and the Pakistanis thought Baradar held information on the whereabouts of high ranking Taliban and al-Qaeda thus forcing both nations to go around Karzai. Given the numerous arrests that followed in the wake of Baradar's detention this scenario seems plausible. Right now I am working with limited information; however I will continue to follow this as it could impact Afghan - U.S. relations.

Photo credit: NY Times

March 13, 2010 - 01:27

Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm

By William Tucker

Fazul Mohammed.jpgIn the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm" »

March 11, 2010 - 19:56

Bali Bomber Dulmatin Killed in Indonesia

By William Tucker

On March 9 Indonesian security forces killed Dulmatin, a leader of Jemaah Islamiyah and the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing. Dulmatin's death was confirmed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono a day later. This successful raid by Indonesia's elite counterterrorist unit detachment 88 is one more in a string of arrests and killing of Jemaah Islamiyah operatives. Dulmatin was certainly a big fish (the U.S. had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head), but while Jemaah Islamiyah is being ripped apart a new group called al-Qaeda Indonesia is just getting started. Two weeks ago a video surfaced on the internet from the new group requesting that all Indonesian Islamist groups should cooperate in the fight to implement Sharia. The connection of this new group to bin Laden's al-Qaeda or the threats against shipping in the Malacca Strait is unknown at this time.

March 10, 2010 - 16:13

More Sectarian Violence in Jos, Nigeria

By William Tucker

Un-nigeria.jpgThe city of Jos, Nigeria is experiencing violence between Christian and Muslims once again in what appears to be a continuation of fighting that began in January. Since fighting in this city is frequent it is unclear what set off this bout of violence, but what we do know is that aid organizations have given body counts of over 600 since the fighting began in January. I discussed one possible reason back in February:

Nigeria is once again suffering violence between Christians and Muslims in the central city of Jos. The Nigerian constitution requires a power sharing between members of the two faiths, but with the Muslim President currently in Saudi Arabia undergoing treatment for a heart condition without an accurate picture of his status things are getting tense. The Christian Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, has been given ceremonial powers to act as President, but many Muslims view this suspiciously. Further complicating matters is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared an end to a ceasefire agreement with the government. The Niger Delta is the region where Nigeria harvests most of its crude oil.

Nigerian President Umaru Yaradua has since returned to his country, but has not resumed his role leaving Jonathan as acting President. While we don't have a clear connection between national political issues affecting regional violence we cannot rule it out either.

Map credit: United Nations Cartography. Text in red is mine.

March 6, 2010 - 00:53

Going from Bad to Worse for Hugo Chavez

By William Tucker

Terrorism experts have long lamented the support for terrorism provided by the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the lack of condemnation from the United States. Earlier this week a Spanish Judge accused Venezuela of actively supporting the Basque separatist group ETA. This is, of course, in addition to accusations of supporting FARC in Colombia, which was verified by Interpol, and support for Lebanon's Hezbollah. Furthermore, a Venezuela defector, who also happened to be Chavez's personal pilot, fingered Caracas for supporting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Continue reading "Going from Bad to Worse for Hugo Chavez" »

March 2, 2010 - 16:45

Arrest Warrant Reissued for Muqtada al-Sadr

by William Tucker

Muqtada al-Sadr.jpgThe Iraqi government has reissued a 2004 warrant for the arrest of Muqtada al-Sadr for the 2003 murder of Majid al-Khoie, another Shiite cleric who had just returned to the holy city of Najaf. The original warrant was shelved as part of a cease-fire deal between U.S. forces and several Shiite militias including al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. With national elections slated to take place March 7 the timing of this really calls into the question the purpose behind reissuing the warrant. In the past when threats against al-Sadr were made his followers would often react with mass protests which often turned violent. It is likely that the ruling party did issue this warrant for political gain in the run-up to next weeks election, but in doing so they risk increasing the possibility of violence between different sects and political movements.

February 28, 2010 - 23:02

More Trouble in the Caucasus

By William Tucker

Caucasus_region_1994.jpgWhen the Soviet Union fell apart many nations that had not known independence in over a century were forced to create political and economic systems without a connection to Moscow. The areas that suffered the most were the Caucasus and Central Asia due to the redrawing of borders under the reign of Josef Stalin. Stalin's purpose was to mix ethno linguistic groups thus preventing any one group from becoming too powerful and causing trouble, but without the power of the red army maintaining stability an outbreak of war in several regions was inevitable. The wars of mid 1990's that occurred in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are a prime example of this.

In recent years Turkey and Armenia have been engaged in normalization talks, but this move has made Azerbaijan nervous. The struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan began shortly after ethnic Armenians in the autonomous oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh passed legislation declaring their intention to unite with Armenia. The government in Yerevan pledged their assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh and a wider war between Armenia and Azerbaijan began. Although the war was ended via a cease fire brokered by Russia in 1994 the dispute was never settled.

Lately Azerbaijan has focused on upgrading their military and is threatening war to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but Russia and Turkey will do everything they can to prevent another conflict. The Caucasus is a sensitive area for Russia specifically and has been used as a lever to cause problems for Moscow in the past. With Russia pushing back against western interests in several areas it is not a stretch to expect the same to happen again. In any case activities in the Caucasus bear closer scrutiny.

Map credit: U.S. State Department

February 23, 2010 - 23:23

The Curious Assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh

By William Tucker

The assassination of Hamas senior commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh has made international headlines. In this article I explain the rationale behind the killing as well as an abbreviated timeline of events.

Continue reading "The Curious Assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh" »

February 16, 2010 - 00:30

Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line

By William Tucker

Authors note: I wrote this article in early October 2009. My purpose in posting it here is to give some background information on the Iranian nuclear standoff. As things move to a crisis point I will post relevant information here.

The vast majority of information available to the public on the Iranian nuclear program has been speculative at best and contradictory at worst. Perhaps the most confusing document came out in late 2007 in which the U.S. intelligence community declared that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapons program and instead was wholly focused on energy production. It was my contention at the time that this statement was not one made in fact, but rather published for reasons of political expediency. At the time the Bush administration was struggling to come up with a strategy for a deteriorating situation in Iraq and was looking to Iran for help stabilizing the situation. Though this attempt failed the ensuing troop surge managed to bring a tense stability to Iraq and by extension a means by which the U.S. could begin to draw down the troop presence. Because of a recent revelation by the Obama administration this previous analysis holds true.

Continue reading "Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line" »

February 10, 2010 - 22:20

New Sanctions, Same Problem

By William Tucker

The Obama administration has levied new sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or more specifically, Gen. Rostam Qasemi and four subsidiaries of a construction firm that he operates. This action is not unprecedented, and in fact was initiated under executive order 13224 which President Bush signed two weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks to obstruct terrorist funding. Furthermore, the U.S. officially designated the IRGC as a "specially designated global terrorist" in 2007 following allegations of Iranian support for insurgents in Iraq.

While the original purpose of targeted sanctions against IRGC entities was to discourage foreign nations and businesses from working with Iran for its ties to terrorism, they have now become a tool for pressuring Tehran from continuing work on its nuclear program. The new sanctions may make for good press, but they are hardly expected to yield results. The reason for this is the sanctions are only binding to U.S. persons and businesses, leaving foreign nations the ability to fully cooperate with Iran on any number of business opportunities. As the world's largest economy the U.S. does have the ability to wield its massive buying power to pressure other countries to prevent them from doing business with Tehran, but this action is not guaranteed to work and could very well work against Washington's interests.

In the immediate future the U.N. Security Council will take up the topic of imposing international sanctions against Iran, but once again success in this action faces serious challenges. For international sanctions to be passed all permanent members of the Security Council must vote in favor of implementation, but with diplomatic ties between the U.S., Russia, and China strained at the moment this is unlikely to happen. Although these sanctions are new the same problems exist in implementation making the other options for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, such as military action, more likely.

February 8, 2010 - 23:08

Another Test for Hugo Chavez

By William Tucker

The last few weeks have been a headache for Venezuelan strong man Hugo Chavez. Perhaps the most immediate challenge to his uncontested leadership in Caracas is not the political opposition, but rather the decaying of the national electrical infrastructure. This is not to say that everything until this point has been going smoothly for Chavez. On the contrary, inflation is rising, the national debt is out of control, and food is becoming increasingly scarce. In typical dictatorial fashion, Chavez has resorted to targeting his political opposition instead of focusing on the problems at hand.

Unfortunately for Chavez the opposition movement is once again gathering steam; albeit without a strong central leadership, but this could change. With the loss of power to much of the country the traditional center of support for Chavez, the poor, may turn on him and embrace the opposition. Currently, it appears as if Chavez understands this and has asked Cuba to complete its obligation to upgrade Venezuela's aging power grid. To facilitate this deal Cuba has sent Ramiro Valdes, one of the last remaining original members of Fidel Castro's initial push to topple the Batista government in Havana. According to Douglas Farah, a well known terrorism expert, Valdes is known for working with non-state actors and suppression of the political rivals.

The presence of Valdes in Caracas is an indicator that Chavez views his revolution as being in trouble and is seeking outside assistance. With persistent rumors of terrorist sponsorship, both past and present, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for Chavez to employ groups such as FARC for domestic strong arm tactics to help prop up his damaged regime. Chavez has survived these tests in the past, but whether he can continue to do so in the face of rising unpopularity remains to be seen.


February 4, 2010 - 11:19

An Uptick in Attempted Terror Plots

By William Tucker

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing, intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Osama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks, and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new message, bin Laden had the following to say:

"In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama. May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point, U.S intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape, while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and released the following statement: "This phrase, 'Peace be upon those who follow guidance', appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked."

This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden. However, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the Al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to severe falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an unusually high number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK's no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. In fact, the Director of National Intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, expects another attempt in the next three to six months. Al-Qaeda may be taking hits worldwide, but they remain a force to be reckoned with.

February 3, 2010 - 12:04

Logistics Plays a Crucial Role in Haiti Response and Recovery

By Irvin Varkonyi, Adjunct Professor
American Public University System

In the wake of the tragic earthquake in Haiti, the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN) is working to identify relief needs together with major humanitarian relief agencies.

ALAN was formed through the collaborative efforts of Logistics associations including the American Society of Transportation and Logistics, Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, APICS, the Association for Operations Professionals, and others. ALAN works closely with US Government agencies such as FEMA and DHS as well as International Organizations such as the United Nations.

Continue reading "Logistics Plays a Crucial Role in Haiti Response and Recovery" »

February 2, 2010 - 13:28

Haiti: the UN's Role in Emergency Management

View from a U.S. Air Force Global Hawk of the damaged Presidential Palace in Haiti (Photo Courtesy - DoD)By William Tucker

In my previous post, I stated, The government of Haiti has a difficult time enforcing the writ of the state in the best of times and nearly ceased functioning in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. Haiti has had a troubled past to say the least, and is currently playing host to a UN peacekeeping contingent to help manage a country that has been divided all too frequently.

Continue reading "Haiti: the UN's Role in Emergency Management" »

February 1, 2010 - 11:31

Haiti: Emergency Management in Third World Nations

haiti_shake_map.jpgBy William Tucker

It has now been several weeks since a catastrophic earthquake destroyed much of Port-au-Prince Haiti and while the international response was rapid, at least it appeared that way to an outside observer, the relief efforts were really hindered by lack of coordination. As is often the case, the U.S. Military took the lead on the logistics end which eventually required taking control of the airport and repairing the main port of the Haitian capital to ensure that supplies moved into the disaster area as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, the U.S. was roundly criticized for this action. This post will not deal with the international wrangling that followed this criticism, we'll leave that to the pundits, rather we will instead focus on the need for the incident command system to be implemented in international crisis responses to better serve the affected region and limit the jurisdictional tug of war.

In the U.S., arguments over jurisdiction are common in response to a crisis, and responding internationally further complicates the issue. The government of Haiti has a difficult time enforcing the writ of the state in the best of times and nearly ceased functioning in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. This, of course, brings to light several issues that must be addressed for future international disaster response. Who serves as an incident commander when the government of the afflicted nation ceases to function? What about security concerns? Can the United Nations assume a governing role and coordinate a disaster response?

Throughout the week we'll address these questions and hopefully lead into a thought provoking discussion.

January 22, 2010 - 19:51

New Report Critical of Intelligence Agencies and Efforts in Afghanistan

By Jenni Hesterman, Counterterrorism Expert

Counter Terror Forum

The Center for a New American Security released a report today entitled "Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan".

Here is the opening statement and it is an attention grabber:

"Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy. Having focused the overwhelming majority of its collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, the vast intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which U.S. and allied forces operate and the people they seek to persuade. Ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects and the levels of cooperation among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers - whether aid workers or Afghan soldiers - U.S. intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision-makers seeking the knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage a successful counterinsurgency."

In the report, Major General Michael Flynn, the Deputy Chief of Staff of Intelligence for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is critical of U.S. intelligence agencies and the overall effort in Afghanistan. The BBC picked up on this report with headlines like: "US spies in Afghanistan are clueless, says intelligence chief"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6976278.ece

The release of the report, the recent bombing of a CIA outpost in Afghanistan and associated counterintelligence failures, and the inability of U.S. agencies to "connect the dots" on the Christmas Day airline bombing attempt has put intelligence and law enforcement agencies under scrutiny.

I am interested to hear your comments on this report, and the events of the last few weeks. Are we resource-constrained? Are the cultural differences between agencies insurmountable? Is information shared, traded or withheld?

January 4, 2010 - 20:02

Kidnapping on the Rise: California Asst Principal Abducted and Killed in Mexico

By Jenni Hesterman, Counterterrorism Expert
Counter Terror Forum

Augustin Roberto "Bobby" Salcedo was a school board member and assistant high school principal. Salcedo, 33, was abducted and killed by gunmen while visiting his wife's family in Mexico (Gomez Palacio) for the holidays. He was found dead Thursday in the northern state of Durango by Mexican authorities, his brother Carlos Salcedo said. Salcedo was abducted while he and his wife had dinner. Five other men were abducted at the same time and sadly, all were brutally executed.

Continue reading "Kidnapping on the Rise: California Asst Principal Abducted and Killed in Mexico" »

December 14, 2009 - 01:55

Mexican Drug Cartels - Coming to a Neighborhood Near You

By Jenni Hesterman
www.counterterrorforum.com

I found this very interesting interactive product on the AP website. One map illustrates the extent to which Mexican cartel activities have pushed northward into the U.S. and highlights areas controlled by the cartels in Mexico. If you click on a specific cartel, a window pops up with additional info on the cartel's leadership, etc. Other maps on this site show drug trafficking routes, the gun trade and cartel related deaths.

Continue reading "Mexican Drug Cartels - Coming to a Neighborhood Near You" »

August 19, 2009 - 18:15

IMPLICATIONS OF AMERICAN JIHAD CELL ARRESTS

By Aaron Richman
Co-Director at Targeted Actionable Monitoring Center

A series of publicized arrests in recent weeks have emphasized the threat of self-radicalized or independent jihadists - specifically including Western converts to Islam - coming together in operative cells. One aspect of extreme radicalization is training and possible armed action by Western Muslim fundamentalists in jihadist war zones such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Israel, Bosnia, etc.

Continue reading "IMPLICATIONS OF AMERICAN JIHAD CELL ARRESTS" »

July 7, 2009 - 09:04

Scenario for a North Korean Nuclear Assault

By Miller J. Wilson

With North Korea admitting to weaponizing nuclear materials, continuing to perform missile tests, and threatening nuclear war if their ships are searched, the US is in a difficult position. Both Japan and South Korea are obvious targets for an attack and with US forces spread thin it would be nearly impossible to use US forces to defend either nation without pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq to fight in Korea.

Continue reading "Scenario for a North Korean Nuclear Assault" »

June 22, 2009 - 13:50

A Resilient Industrial Base Relies on Human Capital

By Irvin Varkonyi
Originally published in NDTA Defense Transportation Journal, April 2009

The Value of Human Capital

The nation has met the harsh challenges of protecting our national security, weakened by the tragedies of terrorism, natural disasters and low priorities of infrastructure protection, with an immense response at all levels of Government and the commercial sector. This response called on its citizens, whether they are the President of the United States, a night watchman at a semi-conductor factory or a university professor of supply chain management to not only exert maximum effort to protect each other but to recognize the value of human capital to detect, plan for, mitigate, respond and recover from disasters. Such action can make the difference in protecting our Defense Industrial Base, the loss of which, or severe weakening, would compound our weakness in maintaining national security.

Continue reading "A Resilient Industrial Base Relies on Human Capital" »

June 17, 2009 - 07:55

American al Qaeda Operative Adam Gadahn Alive; Releases New Video

By Jenni Hesterman

As SahabSpeculation of his death in a January, 2008 Predator strike in Waziristan has now been inarguably refuted: Adam Gadahn is alive and talking in his new 40 minute video entitled "Let's Continue our Jihad and Sacrifice."

He's been riding the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorist List for year, following indictment in the Central District of California for treason and material support to al Qaeda. The charges are related to Gadahn's alleged involvement in a number of terrorist activities, including providing aid, comfort and services to al Qaeda. The State Department's Rewards for Justice Program is offering up to $1 million for information leading to his arrest.

Continue reading "American al Qaeda Operative Adam Gadahn Alive; Releases New Video" »

June 10, 2009 - 18:43

The Realities of Covert Action Review and Approval Process

By Miller J. Wilson

William J. Daugherty makes some good points in his paper but I would have to disagree with him. The review process for covert actions fails on many levels and for many reasons. Some of these reasons include the sheer number of people who are briefed about actions, the lack of punitive actions against Congressmen/women who leak information, and the belief that somehow it is impossible that an action could not be taken without a Presidential Finding or Congressional approval. I shall discuss each point and why it causes the review process to fail below.

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May 15, 2009 - 10:54

Is A/H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic Over????

By Miller J. Wilson

Over the past few weeks we have seen the general public's concern about the H1N1 virus go from the verge of panic to almost nothing. The reason for this is that despite the increasing number of cases reported there have been few deaths outside of Mexico and so the average person is beginning to believe that the worst is over, but is it?

Continue reading "Is A/H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic Over???? " »

May 5, 2009 - 13:55

Preventing Radicalization

By Miller J. Wilson

One of the best ways to fight Jihad is to prevent the radicalization of people. If you have read any of the RAND reports then you will know that Jihadists are pretty much self- recruited after they have become radicalized.

Continue reading "Preventing Radicalization" »

May 1, 2009 - 15:39

The Effectiveness of Gitmo and the Terrorist Detainee Program

By Miller J. Wilson

For everyone out there that keeps screaming for Guantanamo Bay to be shut down and that our interrorgation tactics, including waterboarding, are ineffective here are 8 plots that have been stopped because of Guantanamo Bay and our interrorgation tactics.

Continue reading "The Effectiveness of Gitmo and the Terrorist Detainee Program" »

April 30, 2009 - 11:39

H1N1 Influenza Virus (Swine Flu) and the Effects on National Security

flu1.jpgBy Miller J. Wilson

With the outbreak of the H1N1 virus spreading throughout the globe and threatening to become a pandemic virus one must wonder what the effects will be on the security of nations around the world. An Associated Press report projects an estimated of 90 million ill and 2 million deaths in the US and some British experts claim 120 million deaths world-wide should H1N1 turn into a pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic.

However, the potential cost in health is limited compared to the potential threats to National Security and economy.

Continue reading "H1N1 Influenza Virus (Swine Flu) and the Effects on National Security" »

February 18, 2009 - 15:36

Surviving A Nuclear Attack

Disaster-medicine expert Irwin Redlener gives a talk on how humanity might survive natural or human-made disasters.

December 31, 2008 - 07:52

Al Qaeda is Eyeing MySpace, Facebook, Friends Reunited, PalTalk

By Shelley Smith
Originally published Feb. 2, 2008

Great Britain's Security Service MI5 requested its British troops to remove personal details of themselves off popular social networking sites like Facebook, MySpace and Friends Reunited due to discovering that they were being monitored by Al-Qaeda operatives. In the January, 2008 Free Republic article, 'Al-Qaeda eyes MySpace Pages', Gordon Thomas writes about the concern expressed by the MI5 chief Jonathan Evans in a document titled 'Personal Security'. Evans asks for security service personnel to be aware of the monitoring and gathering of personal details that can be formed into intelligence used to launch terrorist attacks against their colleagues, or family members.

Though access to many of these social websites may be for members only, all one needs to register is an e-mail address. Al-Qaeda operatives are using hundreds of false accounts to access personal information. And what are they finding?

Thousands of military and security personnel who have posted detailed information about themselves, their careers, personal pictures and family members, date of birth, locations of where they are living, photos of colleagues and weapons.

In the United States Islamic extremists are utilizing technology. Radical Muslims are attempting to bring Islamic religious law into the United States and had murdered a New Jersey man and his family. Others have been victims by operatives systematically tracking individuals through PalTalk.com and other websites. An individual who lives overseas had his computer hacked to obtain his photograph, his real name and the city where he lives, while other individuals are having their personal information being exchanged through extremist websites in order to facilitate harm. With this new wave of activities it is important to maintain OPSEC.

The U.S. Department of Energy, Computer Incident Advisory Capability (CIAC), who conducts Cyber Security programs, has posted the latest Vulnerability Bulletins to share with U.S. interagency personnel.

Source:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1953538/posts

www.JihadWatch.com

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=42633

http://www.ciac.org/ciac/bulletins/s-151.shtml

http://www.securityfocus.com/bid/27493/discuss


December 16, 2008 - 08:17

Kidnapping and Piracy Escalation Alarms International Community

By Jenni Hesterman
Originally published September 22, 2008

Simon Maina / AFP-Getty Images. A Canadian Navy sailor boards a U.N. World Food Program cargo ship as it enters Somalia waters. The ship was accompanied by an anti-pirate escort as it carried food aid.

If you travel or work internationally, take heed--kidnapping and piracy are the hottest new fundraising tactics for criminals and terrorists. You are worth more to the kidnappers than you may realize. And although kidnappings are mostly reported in areas of conflict, unrest or already experiencing terrorist activity, the steep revenues associated with this crime will no doubt attract nefarious profit seekers around the globe.

Continue reading "Kidnapping and Piracy Escalation Alarms International Community" »

December 11, 2008 - 08:41

Nanotechnologies Will Enhance Counterterrorism Abilities into the 21st Century

By Shelley Smith

20th century commentators on nanotechnology may have to take a back seat as law enforcement, the military, and Homeland Security address the realistic challenges of battling terrorism issues in the 21st century using “breakthrough technologies.”

Continue reading "Nanotechnologies Will Enhance Counterterrorism Abilities into the 21st Century" »

November 19, 2008 - 16:25

Positive Results for Drug Treatment Reducing Crime, But not against Knife Crime

By Shelley Smith

The National Treatment Agency for Substance Abuse (NTA) is publishing a research paper produced by researchers at the Manchester of University’s National Drug Evidence Centre, whose findings confirm the widely-held belief that rehabilitation programs do work for drug abusers who receive treatment. The results from the study show that through’ first-line’ treatment to stabilize the drug users produced fewer offenses from being committed. In the article “Drug treatment cuts crime”, 17, November 2008, by Louise Hunt, the study shows that drug treatment for drug addicts, cuts crime to almost half when they are in the drug treatment programs.

Continue reading "Positive Results for Drug Treatment Reducing Crime, But not against Knife Crime" »

November 6, 2008 - 16:13

Terrorist Postgraduate Students Pose to Infiltrate UK Top Labs

By Shelley Smith

In April, 2004, Jamie Wilson broke the article Terrorism prompts call to vet research. The British scientific community’s had warranted concerns of scientific research and discoveries that could potentially be carried out through harmful applications towards the development of biological weapons that could be used by bio-terrorists and rogue states.

During that time, Professor Brian Eyre, of the Royal Society Committee on scientific aspects of international security was concerned for a need of more rigorous regulations and improved exercise of judgment on research that could be used to create bio-terror weapons.

Continue reading "Terrorist Postgraduate Students Pose to Infiltrate UK Top Labs" »

October 31, 2008 - 13:18

Citizen Complacency is the Weakest Link in Homeland Security Infrastructure

By Shelley Smith

Norman Rockwell - Salute to the Flag

In May 2008, Anthony L. Kimery wrote an article Emergency Preparedness Complacency Worries Readiness Authorities that brought attention to the problem of Americans continued complacency towards the ongoing national security issues of terrorism.

Today, American citizens are taking for granted those officials, law enforcement, and other agencies who maintain resistance to complacency and who work diligently to stay ahead of the harm that could befall the United States and weaken its’ infrastructure.

Continue reading "Citizen Complacency is the Weakest Link in Homeland Security Infrastructure" »

October 29, 2008 - 10:18

Women Jihadists Suicide Bombers are Increasing in Numbers

By Shelley Smith

Female Warriors.

The announcement of the Taliban planning a 20-year war in Afghanistan and the international questions of whether the United States developing policies to match the current issues as strategically right, will not stop a troop drawdown and extra brigades being sent to Afghanistan. On the other hand nor will the increase of troop involvement in Afghanistan cause a halt to suicide bombing recruitment, and those who carry it out to inflict damage and cause civilian and military casualties and death.

Continue reading "Women Jihadists Suicide Bombers are Increasing in Numbers" »

October 23, 2008 - 09:24

Awaiting New Law Against Smugglers, Mini-Submarines Used in Trafficking

By Shelley Smith

Drug smuggling submarine seized by the U.S. Navy.

As news broke of the strategic drama of smugglers hauling Cuban boat people to Mexico to avoid the U.S. Coast Guard who have reduced illegal human trafficking in the Florida Straits, Mexican and Cuban officials agreed to return illegal Cuban immigrants back to Cuba who came onto Mexican shores illegally for fear such trafficking would induce more and varied criminal activities.

Continue reading "Awaiting New Law Against Smugglers, Mini-Submarines Used in Trafficking" »

October 20, 2008 - 16:19

Christian Proselytizing and Changes in Hindu Anti-Conversion Laws Ignites Further Violence Overseas

By Shelley Smith

Iraqi Christians are increasingly isolated (file photo) (epa)

Retaliation and violence towards Christians in regions of the Middle East and in India has increased and is spreading. The Taliban, other fundamentalist terrorist groups, and Hindu extremists are using acts of violence against Christian religious groups and others to convey their message of intolerance of Christian proselytizing and other conversions to continue their acts of terrorism and limit religious freedoms. This has lead to property destruction, physical violence, kidnapping, and death to Christians and other innocent people.

Continue reading "Christian Proselytizing and Changes in Hindu Anti-Conversion Laws Ignites Further Violence Overseas" »

October 14, 2008 - 09:17

Kidnapping for Profit on the Rise: Don’t Be a Victim

By Jenni Hesterman

A Korean woman is released after being held hostage by the Taliban for 6 weeks. AP photo

As discussed in my September 22nd blog, if you travel or work internationally, you are a potential target for criminals and terrorists who want to raise funds by putting a price on your life.

The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) is the primary clearinghouse for all data related to citizens killed, injured or kidnapped as a result of terrorist activity. The NCTC’s most recent report shows trend data from 2005, 2006 and 2007 concerning “noncombatant” kidnappings. Data shows that there has been a slight increase of kidnappings abroad, not just in Iraq and Afghanistan, but in other areas of instability, such as Africa and Central America.

Continue reading "Kidnapping for Profit on the Rise: Don’t Be a Victim" »

October 7, 2008 - 11:21

Russian Warships, Venezuelan, Cuba & FARC Secret Training Camp -What’s Next?

By Shelley Smith

There have been serious implications revealed by officials, critics, and former participants that the Venezuelan government in cooperation with Cuban military advisors and Columbian guerrillas are operating a secret Venezuelan paramilitary training camp.

Continue reading "Russian Warships, Venezuelan, Cuba & FARC Secret Training Camp -What’s Next?" »

October 3, 2008 - 09:14

Drug Czar Calls Marijuana Growers Dangerous Terrorists

By Shelley Smith

Across the United States illegal marijuana plants are being grown in national forests, public lands, agricultural fields, jungles of Hawaii, and on drug buyers purchased private farm lands and other. Drug dealers are overtly and covertly purchasing vineyards as is depicted in the article “Drug dealers turn Wash. vineyards into pot farms”, by Shannon Dininny, August 9, 2008, which demonstrates how the drug dealer and pot growers take a vineyard and convert it into a marijuana operation.

Continue reading "Drug Czar Calls Marijuana Growers Dangerous Terrorists" »

October 1, 2008 - 14:27

NASA Glory Launch Includes Citizen’s Names in Space to Orbit for Years

By Shelley Smith

Graphic image that represents the Glory mission (courtesy of Nasa Science)

NASA is scheduled to launch the “Glory” satellite into space from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, during June 2009, and has invited members of the public to submit their names to fly around the Earth for an Earth’s atmosphere collection. The Web site where people can place their names in orbit for years to come is on the “Send Your Name Around the Earth.”

Continue reading "NASA Glory Launch Includes Citizen’s Names in Space to Orbit for Years" »

September 30, 2008 - 09:17

Coast Guard is Essential to Meet the Challenges and Threats to U.S. Maritime Security

By Shelley Smith

Photo by PA2 Sara Francis/courtesy U.S. Coast Guard

From Homeland Security the American Forces Press Service article Coast Guard Essential to Victory Against Terrorism, May 21, 2008, by Gerry J. Gilmore, denotes Vice President Cheney speaking to members of the Class of 2008, at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. “The Coast Guard will be essential to the fight, and the Coast Guard will be essential to victory against terrorism.” Cheney said. “In its five years as part of DHS, the Coast Guard has undertaken the largest commitment at port security operation since the Second World War.”

Continue reading "Coast Guard is Essential to Meet the Challenges and Threats to U.S. Maritime Security" »

September 2, 2008 - 08:49

The Drug War Expands to Western Africa

By Jenni Hesterman

The area of concern with Guinea-Bissau is highlighted in red. (Wikipedia)

The Department of Defense will soon take on a new role: countering the expanding drug trade in Western Africa. The new initiative is outlined in the FY 2009 defense authorization bill, House Resolution (H.R.) 5658. Section 1024 of the bill provides funding for counter-drug equipment in the Republic of Ghana, the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, and the Republic of Senegal, in addition to the nations of the Western Hemisphere, central Asia, and the Caucasus. Additionally, the Senate Armed Services Committee is concerned by the rapid growth of illegal drug trade in the region and has directed the State Department and the Department of Defense to jointly prepare "a region-wide, counter drug plan for Africa, with a special emphasis on West Africa and the Maghreb."

Continue reading "The Drug War Expands to Western Africa" »

September 1, 2008 - 08:50

New Study Highlights U.S. Cities at Greatest Risk for Terrorist Attacks

Map

The risk for terrorist attack is plotted using data from the study. Red identifies urban areas of highest risk, yellow is medium risk, and green is lowest risk. (Credit: Walter W. Piegorsch)

By Jenni Hesterman

A leading statistician and environmental risk expert has published a landmark report that rates 132 U.S. cities on their vulnerability to terrorist attack using a newly-developed statistical method. In the study, entitled “Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents”, Dr. Walter W. Piegorsch, a professor at the University of Arizona, calculated the susceptibility of urban areas to attack by assessing socio-economic factors, natural and environmental hazards, and the city’s infrastructure. Critical industries, ports, railroads, bridges, tunnels, water/sewage systems and the age and fragility of the existing infrastructure were also considerations. Demographics were evaluated, as a way to predict the impact of an attack on the populace, and to assess the likely response of residents.

Continue reading "New Study Highlights U.S. Cities at Greatest Risk for Terrorist Attacks" »

August 31, 2008 - 09:11

Afghanistan Now the World’s Leading Supplier of Cannabis

A soldier of the International Security Assistance Force walks past a cannabis field that Taliban militants used for cover in the Kandahar province.(Credit: Robert Bronwen, AFP Getty Images)

By Jenni Hesterman

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) recently released its 2008 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, which shows that Afghanistan not only provides 90% of the world’s supply of opium, but is now also the top supplier of cannabis, the source of marijuana and hashish. Approximately 70,000 hectares (173 acres) of the crop were cultivated in 2007, as compared to 50,000 hectares in 2006. Estimates show yet another increase in production in 2008. The UNODC Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa summed up the challenge by stating: “Thus, today, Afghanistan has become the world's biggest supplier of two drugs: the most deadly one (heroin), and the one most commonly used (cannabis).

With unwanted Taliban (and world) attention on poppy production, farmers are increasing their cannabis plantings. According to the UN, nearly three quarters of the farmers in the southern Kandahar province will plant cannabis this spring. Despite the fact that cannabis crop is less lucrative than poppies, cannabis farmers make $30 per day, which is five times as much as harvesting wheat. Cannabis is easier and less expensive to grow, and there is increasing demand by users in neighboring countries. Although both drugs are banned by Islam, cannabis appears to be more acceptable than opium. It is converted into “cigarette-tees”, which are widely available for purchase in local markets throughout the region.

The escalating cannabis crop in Afghanistan has several implications. The overall U.S. commitment to counternarcotics in Afghanistan is about $500 million a year, and although a portion of the funds go toward hindering narco-trafficking, the bulk is spent on poppy eradication efforts. In fact, the 2007 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released by the State Department, does discuss hashish seizures by officials, yet doesn’t mention cannabis crop production in Afghanistan as a focus area. Addressing this issue on the ground will likely require additional money and manpower, or the diversion of resources from the poppy suppression efforts.

At the tactical level, Taliban fighters have been known to hide in the marijuana fields. Plants can grow up to 10 feet and provide a thick, dense cover not easily penetrated by thermal devices. Cannabis foliage is hearty and moist; as discovered in other eradication efforts, it does not burn easily. Once ignited, the resulting smoke has an ill effect on humans and animals in the vicinity, thus impacting those beyond the area of operations.

Finally, the increased cannabis production could affect many innocent civilians. Established drug trading routes in the region are expected to burgeon, and villages along the routes have been warned by officials to expect increasing activity by traffickers, law enforcement, and possibly the Taliban.

About the Author
Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism specialist. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies.


August 27, 2008 - 14:27

Mobile Payments a New Way for Terrorists and Criminals to Move Money

By Jenni Hesterman

The State Department recently issued its latest International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, detailing activities of countries involved in the drug trade and outlining U.S. policy and activity in the fight against the manufacturing and distribution of illegal narcotics. Released by the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, the report includes a new section entitled "Mobile Payments--A Growing Threat", which outlines the ways technology may be exploited by nefarious groups to obscurely launder, move and store cash. Mobile payments, also known as “m-payments”, “proximity payments”, or “micropayments”, are point-of-sale cash transactions made through a mobile device such as cell phone or personal data assistant.

Continue reading "Mobile Payments a New Way for Terrorists and Criminals to Move Money" »

August 14, 2008 - 08:21

A Total and Unmitigated Defeat? NATO, Russia and the Georgian Crisis

Map

Written by Joseph B. Varner and Joseph C. Ben-Ami
Originally Published in Canadian Centre for Policy Studies

In the debate over the Munich Accord in 1938, Winston Churchill pointed out what he called “the most unpopular and most unwelcome thing,” that what was being represented as a victory for peace and diplomacy was in fact “a total and unmitigated defeat”. The same thing might be said of NATO diplomacy over the past 12 months.

Continue reading "A Total and Unmitigated Defeat? NATO, Russia and the Georgian Crisis " »

July 11, 2008 - 08:12

Olympic Games Just Weeks Away: Has China Mitigated the Terrorist Threat?

同一个世界同一个梦想 (One World, One Dream) Official Symbol and theme of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad

By Jenni Hesterman

In a rare show of transparency, China revealed today that it has detained 82 suspected terrorists since January that 'allegedly plotted sabotage against the Beijing Olympics,' the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing the police chief in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang region that borders Central Asia. As the August 8th opening ceremony approaches, the Chinese government has stepped up warning of a domestic terror threat emanating from the region, fueled by Muslim extremists.

Continue reading "Olympic Games Just Weeks Away: Has China Mitigated the Terrorist Threat?" »

June 23, 2008 - 08:25

SOCA: The UK’s Answer To Intelligence-Based Law Enforcement

SOCA Seal

By Jenni Hesterman

It is estimated that organized crime costs the UK in excess of $40B per year. In response to this significant national security and economic threat, the government established SOCA (Serious Organised Crime Agency) in 2006. This unique organization is an intelligence-led agency with law enforcement powers. In short, SOCA serves as a link between strategic efforts to fight organized crime and the work of law enforcement at the tactical level.

Continue reading "SOCA: The UK’s Answer To Intelligence-Based Law Enforcement" »

June 5, 2008 - 08:46

Supreme Court Ruling Makes Money Laundering Tougher to Prove and Prosecute

By Jenni Hesterman

Supreme Court (file photo)

In a landmark decision on Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned 2 money laundering cases, redefining the statute and increasing the burden of proof needed to prosecute the crime.

One of the pivotal cases involved Humberto Cuellar of Acuna, Mexico. On July 14, 2004, Cuellar was driving erratically on State Highway 77, about 100 miles from, and heading toward, the Mexican border. His vehicle had no license plate and he was driving 30 MPH below the speed limit, which caught the attention of law enforcement officers who judiciously initiated the traffic stop. Cuellar was nervous, so officers continued their investigation and discovered a bundle of cash in Cuellar’s pocket that smelled of marijuana.

Continue reading "Supreme Court Ruling Makes Money Laundering Tougher to Prove and Prosecute " »

May 16, 2008 - 08:25

Suicide Bombing Prevention: Source Cultivation Key

By Jenni Hesterman

LTTE suicide bomber Dhanu with a wood necklace minutes before killing former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi on May 21, 1991.

Officials in Israel are speaking openly about their recent success hindering suicide bombings that caused their country incalculable psychological and economic damage. Although the U.S. has been spared this particularly brutal and effective means of terrorizing the populace, law enforcement must be ever vigilant of the threat of suicide bombing in public areas such as shopping malls, amusement parks, sports venues, restaurants and hotels. Lessons learned by Israel and other countries combating suicide bombings are certainly applicable and worthy of analysis by all engaged in the war on terror.

Continue reading "Suicide Bombing Prevention: Source Cultivation Key" »

May 9, 2008 - 09:29

Somali Waters: When Will Kidnapping for Profit Lead to Kidnapping for Jihad?

An aerial photo from France's military shows gunmen aboard the yacht Le Ponant last month. Pirates seized the vessel off Somalia's coast, taking 30 crew members hostage. A French warship was tracking the yacht, but Prime Minister Francois Fillon said he hoped to avoid using force.)

Strategic analysis by The Institute of Terrorism Research and Response

A recent upsurge in piracy in waters near Somalia, with 31 ships seized in 2007, has led the International Maritime Bureau to advise merchant ships against approaching closer than 200 nautical miles from the country's coast. The acts of piracy have been criminal in nature and have garnered pirates handsome sums of ransom money for their efforts.

Continue reading "Somali Waters: When Will Kidnapping for Profit Lead to Kidnapping for Jihad? " »

May 8, 2008 - 13:35

1 Year Update: Revisiting the Fort Dix Plot

From left, Serdar Tatar and Dritan, Eljivir and Shain Duka are accused of planning an attack at Ft. Dix, New Jersey.  (picture courtesy of Time Magazine)

By Jenni Hesterman

On May 7, 2007, a lengthy federal investigation culminated with the arrests of six men accused of planning attacks at Fort Dix and possibly other military installations in New Jersey. According to the indictment, which was the result of a 16 month operation by the FBI and the Joint Terrorism Task Force, the men conducted multiple surveillance runs, purchased AK-47s and M-16s, and attempted to procure a rocket propelled grenade launcher to “increase the number of killings.”

Continue reading "1 Year Update: Revisiting the Fort Dix Plot" »

May 6, 2008 - 13:27

Global Security Brief

A daily, open source, around the world tour of international security-related news.

By Professor Joseph B. Varner

Continue reading "Global Security Brief" »

Brace Yourselves - the Russian Bear is Stirring

President-Elect of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev

By Joseph B. Varner

So the Russians have elected Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor, Dimitri Anatolyevich Medvedev, as President. Is anyone really surprised? Although there may not have been any voter fraud to speak of, there is little question that the process itself was rigged. The whole campaign was carefully staged to give Medvedev such an enormous advantage that his defeat was virtually impossible.

Continue reading "Brace Yourselves - the Russian Bear is Stirring " »

May 5, 2008 - 13:11

Much At Stake at NATO Summit

By Joseph B. Varner

Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper

The great American theologian and anti-slavery activist James Freeman Clarke once quipped that a politician thinks of the next election; a statesman the next generation. If that is so, then on the international scene at least, Stephen Harper is quietly establishing his credentials as a statesman.

Continue reading "Much At Stake at NATO Summit" »

April 22, 2008 - 14:20

Secretary Chertoff Wants You to Read This

Map

(Credit: DHS Leadership Journal)

By Jenni Hesterman

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff believes that a significant story regarding the terror threat has been mostly overlooked by the press…and he’s right.

About 18 months ago, transportation officials announced worldwide restrictions for carrying liquids on domestic and international flights. Not much could be said at the time about the threat, and frustrated travelers, airline and security personnel all questioned the basis for the directive. A case playing out this month in a London this courtroom finally provides the long awaiting answer.

Eight men are currently on trial for conspiring to smuggle explosive agents on board seven international flights in August 2006, all originating at Heathrow Airport in London, with destinations in North America. The group planned to detonate the devices mid-flight, halfway across the ocean, "in the name of Islam".

The explosive devices were to be fashioned from a mixture of hydrogen peroxide bleach and Tang powdered drink, which provides citric acid. This mixture which would then be carried onboard the flight in plastic bottles, disguised as sports drinks or soda. Once airborne, the remaining component (a common device which I will omit from this posting) would be added to the liquid, forming a powerful explosive device. Court-appointed scientists used the material to create a sample blast, which was so powerful that it destroyed the video camera capturing the event.

The plotters targeted full flights to achieve maximum loss of life. The first flight in the sequence of seven targeted flights was to take off at 2:30pm for San Francisco, and the last just 1 hour and 41 minutes later, a 5:11pm flight bound for Chicago. According to British officials, who had been watching the group for months, the plot was disrupted just 2 weeks from execution.

Only 1 month prior to their arrest, the group paid roughly $240K in cash for a flat in East London to use as a meeting place and laboratory for assembling the devices. The flat contained not only the ingredients and instructions for the bombs, but several suicide martyrdom tapes calling for jihad, and expressing individual motives for planning the attacks.

The self-professed leader of the group, Abdulla Ahmed Ali, said that Osama bin Laden was his inspiration for the pending attacks, and also stated “the time has come for you to be destroyed”. On the tape, he boasts that “body parts will decorate the streets”, and that he wanted to join in holy war to “punish and humiliate” nonbelievers. Another defendant, Uma Islam states “this is revenge for actions by the USA in the Muslim lands, and their accomplices, such as the British and the Jews” and “this is a warning to the nonbelievers that if they do not leave our land, there are many more like us, and many more like me, ready to strike until the law of Allah is established on this earth”. Waheed Zaman professes that "America and England have no cause for complaints. I am warning these two nations death and destruction will pass upon you like a tornado."

One of the men, Assad Sarwar, who is suspected of links to extremists in Pakistan, wasn’t going to be an actual suicide bomber--he had other deadly ambitions. His briefcase was recovered in the woods behind his house with a computer memory stick containing information about attacks on other U.K. targets, such as power stations, oil refineries, and a major gas terminal.

Today, a tape was shown to the court showing the men shopping for the bomb ingredients at B&Q, Ikea and Tesco stores in London. Despite the overwhelming evidence, all 8 men deny the charges against them. The trial is expected to continue for several more weeks before the jury renders its verdict.



About the Author
Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism specialist. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies.

February 28, 2008 - 08:12

UK Terror Recruiter Convicted

By Jenni Hesterman

On February 26th, a British court convicted 50 year-old Mohammed Hamid of directing terrorist training camps in the country, and providing instruction to several of the men involved in the July 7 and 21, 2005 bombings in London. Although the terrorists that executed these attacks have already been prosecuted, officials diligently pursued those who inspired and trained them. Hamid, who refers to himself as “Osama Bin London”, was viewed as the most prolific recruiter of radical Islamic fundamentalists in the United Kingdom.

Evidence produced in his case included testimony that Hamid told his followers that the 52 deaths in the bombings in London on July 7, 2005 (also known as the 7/7 attacks), were "not even breakfast to me”. Immediately following those bombings, Hamid sent a text message to one of 21/7 bombers he groomed, Hussain Osman, stating: “Assalam bro, we fear no one except Allah. We will not change our ways, we are proud to be Muslim and we will not hide. 8pm Friday at my place be there food an talk AL-QURAN". Hamid conducted regular Quran study sessions at his home, where he used verses from the religious text to support his radical ideology and prepared the men to undertake acts of violence. An MI5 listening device placed at Hamid’s home captured several of these sessions on tape, and was submitted to the jury as evidence for their consideration. Hamid is also on a videotape, widely circulated to the press, exhorting the virtues of suicide bombings and stating that he sees nothing wrong with killing of innocent civilians during these attacks.

While Hamid was conducting training at the Kent Islamic School, an undercover police officer taped a particularly inciting speech, which the jury used to convict him of soliciting to murder. An accomplice at the training facility, Atilla Ahmet, who told the men he was the "number one Al-Qaeda in Europe", pled guilty to soliciting to murder before the trial began. Video tapes from the camp show trainees preparing for hand-to-hand combat.

Hamid’s conviction comes on the heels of a controversial report released by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a prestigious London defense think tank, on February 15th. The paper, entitled “Risk, Threat and Security: The Case of the United Kingdom” states that the United Kingdom lacks a “coherent and comprehensive mechanism for the analysis of risks and threats” and that multiculturalism has led to a loss of “self confidence”. Perhaps most pejorative, the report states that the United Kingdom is now considered a “soft touch”, not only impacting the strength and security of the country, but increasing its vulnerability as a terrorist target.

Sources:
'Osama bin London' Is Convicted in British Court
Transcript: '7/7 Bombing Not Even Breakfast for Me'
Top Terror Recruiter Found Guilty
CNN Video: UK Terror Camp Verdict
RUSI Journal


About the Author
Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism specialist. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies.

February 6, 2008 - 07:37

CIA Warns Public Utility Companies Of Cyber Attackers, U.S. Government Holds “Cyber Storm” War Game

By Shelley Smith

Cyber attackers have been able to infiltrate sophisticated public utility companies and government computer systems. CIA top cyber-security analyst, Tom Donahue, stated at a trade conference in New Orleans that intrusions were made through the Internet and that cyber attackers have hacked into computer systems of foreign utility companies. One case resulted in a power outage affecting multiple cities. The trade conference was attended by 300 U.S. and international security officials from the government and from electric, water, oil and gas companies.

It is still an unknown and under investigation as to who or why these attacks were done. The United States electricity grid continues to be vulnerable to such outages by potential cyber attacks. Cyber extortion is a growing threat that has been coming mainly from outside of the Nation. Each year cyber intrusions have cost an estimated $20 billion worldwide. The speed of malicious cyber attacks have increased dramatically in recent years assaulting the Nation’s information networks and critical infrastructure interdependencies that are composed of both private and public institutions of energy, finance, banking, transportation, telecommunications and human services.

Historically, global critical infrastructures were physically separate systems with little interdependency and operated without a threat. Now the interdependencies and interconnections pose as a threat to society. The attackers are difficult to track due to disguising themselves through multiple computer networks and other means. Presently, they are believed to be launched from computers of foreign government or military.

Now this complex inter-linkage creates a dimension of vulnerability due to the significance of cyber threats and their possible consequences. The National Cyber Response Coordination Group headed by the departments of Justice and Homeland Security have been meeting theses challenges by conducting mock disasters and confronting officials through a “Cyber Storm” war game that tested the nation’s hacker defenses. In February 2006, HLS ran the exercises from a broad list of suggested real-world scenarios with the help from the Pentagon, Justice Department, CIA, National Security Agency and others. Imaginary criminals included hackers, bloggers, reporters and other. Duped simulated reporters were misled into spreading believable but misleading information to worsen the scenario for the public and financial markets to point out where the expectations of capabilities of strengths and weaknesses were. Another war game, “Cyber Storm 2” is planned to take place in March.

Though the exercise had no impact on the real Internet terror experts still remain concerned over Al Qaeda’s increasing present and their use of the internet as a means to spread their message and for recruiting.

Sources:

Department of Homeland Security

U.S. Department of Justice

Transportation Security Administration
Trains, Bloggers are Threat in Drill

Infrastructure Interdependencies and Homeland Security

Progress, Challenges in Securing the Nation's Cyberspace




About the Author

Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on national and international law, foreign affairs, criminal justice systems and the psychology of criminal behavior. Smith is currently working toward a B.A in Intelligence Studies with a focus on analysis and terrorism at American Military University.


January 17, 2008 - 08:35

Copper and Other Metal Thefts Could Weaken Homeland and Domestic Security Infrastructures

By Shelley Smith

Copper theft has reached an epidemic level that is not only affecting the United States, but is international, creating immense global havoc.

As of January 11, 2008, the London Metal Exchange reported that copper prices continue to climb because of the heavy demand from China. The price shot up $50 from Thursday’s closing price and by Friday was quoted at $7,240/7,250 (U.S.) per ton - an eight percent rise.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy the theft of copper and losses to businesses hovers around $1 billion and is having a major impact on commercial businesses and farms. The increase in copper theft has disrupted the flow of electricity, slowed down construction projects, and knocked out irrigation networks across the United States.

Amtrak has suffered a number of copper thefts from its repair shops and locomotive engines. This can cause a threat to national security by disrupting day-to-day services that can produce outages or prevent vital communications, possibly endangering the safety of the public and railway passengers. From January 2006 through March 2007, electric utility companies in 42 states had reported 270 copper thefts, causing millions in maintenance repairs within the United States.

Other metals that thieves are attracted to are the shiny metal plating belonging to the platinum family and other. On a national security level there is the concern about theft of other minerals and the minerals rhodium and palladium that is used to coat switches and for nuclear bombs.

Overseas, many states are feeling the same effects of copper thievery and the theft of aluminum. Thieves are going as far as taking the spouts and gutters from buildings and churches and copper sculptures from parks and tombstone decorations.

With copper rates soaring due to the demand from China and other fast-growing Asian countries, the stored elements in wire and other products have created a booming black market. Self-styled dealers freely buy and sell scrap that is obviously stolen. A most extreme case was in Russia in Khabarovsk in Eastern Russia. Russian scrap metal thieves stole a 200-ton metal bridge in a night-time raid that was part of the only road leading to a local heating plant.

In a race to deter this type of crime, Hungary and South Africa are setting examples of having to restructure laws, legislation, and law enforcement approaches in efforts to deter these crimes.

Also, the Zambian president, Levy Mwanawasa is considering tapping into the higher copper prices by increasing tax revenues from the mining sector.

In the United States to help deter copper and aluminum theft, a partnership was developed between the National Crime Prevention Council (NCPC) and the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). The ISRI has developed an online Theft Alert System, which sends e-mail notifications to scrap dealers about reported thefts by law enforcement agencies. Information can be found at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/what/whatsnewarchive.html.

As new state bills and laws are being considered to tighten control on copper and metal theft, it has been suggested metal theft sentencing be changed from a misdemeanor to a felony. On January 1, 2008, Illinois passed a new state law that requires scrap metal processors maintain records of those individuals who sell scrap metal valued at $100 or more and that the information be made available to law enforcement.

Rather then wait for the passage of new legislation, companies and others have requested that nanotechnology be used in the battle against copper wire theft. Nanotechnology is a traceable technology and marks equipment and copper wire so it can be identified after it has been stolen. Another method is the application of data dots - spray-on microscopic labels that adhere to copper wire and other equipment.

Employees and the public should be encouraged to stay vigilant: report any suspicious activities of theft or other crimes immediately to local authorities. Safely get license plate numbers or other descriptive information about the thieves, report any burning of telephone cable or electrical wires. When away make certain to securely lock your house, outbuildings and sheds. Boost your neighborhood watch programs to include information of copper or other metal thefts. Store all tools and wire cutters and any materials containing copper in a secured building. Other common targets for copper thieves are vacant houses, buildings and apartments. Consider motion detectors and night security guards.

If you are interested in reviewing history on metals you may go to the following site: “A Short History of Metals; Copper Development Association; U.S. Mint”.

Other sources:
OCAST Reserves $1.5 million For Enhanced Nanotechnology Program

Oncor Uses Nanotechnology in Fight Against Copper Wire Theft

PSC Warns Against Copper Theft

Copper Theft Down at Puget Sound Energy

U.S. Department of Energy


About the Author

Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on national and international law, foreign affairs, criminal justice systems and the psychology of criminal behavior. Smith is currently working toward a B.A in Intelligence Studies with a focus on analysis and terrorism at American Military University.

January 12, 2008 - 10:42

Is Humankind Guided Under an Umbrella of the Battle Over the Books?

By Shelley Smith

As the Bible and the Koran continue to influence human events, can the urging of the spread of the Word spark further fierce global conflicts in the future?

President Bush is urging a push for Mideast peace to fight against terrorism and extremists who seek new weapons and new operatives to overthrow governments and attack the U.S., while public views and terrorist recruitment are still being strongly influenced by the battle over the Bible vs. the Koran

The commonality of Christians and Muslims both being the “people of the book” has turned into a marketing battle and a playing field for distortions of scripture of the Holy Books.
.
With Christianity and Islam influencing public opinion, how the Books’ scriptures are interpreted play a key role in the complexities of terrorist beliefs and actions. The Koran is the most widely read book in the Islamic world and reciting the Koran is the backbone of Muslim education. In Iran, if an Iranian becomes a human repository or “hafiz” of the book, they qualify for an automatic university degree. Reciting the Koran has been an Iranian tournament in the Islamic world that attracts hundreds of thousands of Muslims.

The tools of technology through modernization have helped spread the books of the Bible and the Koran. Christian conversion is wide spread, but Islamic expansion has mostly come about through population growth and global migration, rather than conversion.

But there is a difference between Christian missionary works and that of Muslim missionary works. While Christian missionaries work to win the souls of others and reinvigorate the faithful, Muslim missionaries work to not just reinvigorate the faithful, but encourage zealotry towards their religion and are less aimed at the winning of new souls.

The other difference that further divides the Christian and Muslims through the teachings comes through the Saudi view. Through the Saudi view they do stress the passages that affirm the Christian Gospel and the Hebrew Torah as revelations of God and a path to salvation, but insist Muhammad delivered the final revelation from God, but Christianity and Judaism lost their ability to save souls.

Wealth and globalization through the Internet, television and radio is a bonanza to both religions. Saudi oil wealth distributes approximately 30m Koran through a vast network of mosques, Islamic societies and embassies to increase the weight of Islam. With Al- Qaeda terrorist video messages now available for download from militant Web sites to help terrorist organization and their followers spread the group’s messages of their interpretation of Islam and monotheism to make international audiences more aware of their movement; this does not help the Muslim faithful who do follow the peaceful interpretation of their Islamic faith or those Muslims who work against terrorist actions or motives. As the “war on terror” has disrupted Missionary organizations, Christian and Muslims are finding it difficult to spread the word. The Muslim use of technology and internet publishing providers are making the literal translation of the Koran uncomfortable for the Muslims. Then too, many American’s are lacking in both the understanding of Christian and Islamic biblical knowledge. As the Muslims prefer to read the Koran in the original Arabic, many Muslims find it is difficult to understand and illiteracy rates are high throughout the Muslim world. Then there is the problem of the production of counterfeit Korans that are designed to plant doubt in the minds of Muslims as some Christian groups try to convert Muslims. Also, within this uneven playing field in the U.S., Muslims can build mosques, but in Saudi Arabia and Iran the Bible is barred from distribution.

While there is a difference between getting and understanding a Holy Book there lays the problem too of the laws that rule under the Muslim religion against Christian apostasy in many parts of the world. Many Christians lack the understanding of Islamic religious law. The traditional Islamic law states to encourage the Islamic faithful to renounce their faith is a crime and the penalty for apostasy by a Muslim is death. Without an educated understanding, knowledge and an acceptable respect of each others cultures and religions, the possibility of peace and “the lamb lying with the lion” will continue to not exist. Global terrorism and related criminal activities that are correlated with religion will continue to thrive based on misinterpretation and the will not to settle differences.

Sources:
The Battle of the Books - Economist.com, Dec. 2007

Peace Plan, Iran on Bush Mideast Agenda, AP Jan 2008

al-Qaida Videos Now on Cell Phones AP, Jan 2008

The Harvest Fields: Statistics 2007 Edition


About the Author Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on national and international law, foreign affairs, criminal justice systems and the psychology of criminal behavior. Smith is currently working toward a B.A in Intelligence Studies with a focus on analysis and terrorism at American Military University.

January 6, 2008 - 09:43

Geographic Changes Occurring Around the World

By Shelley Smith

For those who are on the go and need to know or are just interested, there have been several geographic changes that have occurred as France overseas territories of Bassas da India, Europa Island, Glorioso Islands, Juan de Nova Island, and Tromelin Island were recently reorganized. The territories had previously been grouped together as Iles Eparses, also known as the Scattered Islands. Now they are constituted as a district of the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, while St. Bathelemy Island and St. Martin Island that were part of France’s overseas region of Guadeloupe are separate overseas collectives. The CIA 2007 World Factbook, and the United States Board on Geographic Names(BGN) now recognizes East Timor as Timor-Leste.

More information on foreign geography can be found through the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency from the GEOnet Names Server (GNS).

The NGA has also released to the public an updated special reference map (or reference graphic) of Baghdad, Iraq that is suitable for reference only here. Contact the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine if this graphic is available for public distribution.



About the Author
Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on national and international law, foreign affairs, criminal justice systems and the psychology of criminal behavior. Smith is currently working toward a B.A in Intelligence Studies with a focus on analysis and terrorism at American Military University.

December 17, 2007 - 10:46

'Another 21st Century Disaster Tip You Won't Hear From Officials'

David Stephenson, a leading homeland security, e-governmentand and crisis management strategist, offers up out-of-the-box ideas for surviving a disaster.

This week's tip: Using Twitter

December 10, 2007 - 16:01

'Nuclear Capacity Needed to Deter America'

Financial analyst Mustafa Domanic ruffles some feathers on today's PostGlobal blog with his commentary on Iran and their nuclear capacity. His take is that Iranians want and should create a nuclear weapons program.

Tell us what you think?

November 16, 2007 - 12:26

23 Illegal Immigrants Working in Secured Areas at O’Hare - Busted

By Shelley Smith

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested 23 illegal immigrants during the early part of November 2007, for using fake security badges issued by the Department of Aviation, to work in critical areas and on the tarmac of the Chicago O’Hare International Airport. The discrepancies were first noted in March by a U.S. Customs and Border Protection inspector and after an eight-month investigation involving federal, state and Chicago authorities they identified and busted a vulnerability that could have compromised national security.

Those illegal immigrants who were arrested were employed by Ideal Staffing Solutions Inc., who had built an illegal work force and were contracted to United Airlines, KLM and Qantas. It was found that 110 of the 134 badges issued to the illegal immigrants did not match those carriers. Twenty-one of the illegal immigrants are believed to have come from Mexico and two from Guatemala. Affidavits in a complaint that were unsealed in the U.S. District Court claimed applications for the 110 fake badges listed Social Security numbers that did not exist, belonged to other individuals and some of the numbers listed belonged to people who were deceased.

On November 14, 2007, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) Administrator, Assistant Secretary Kip Hawley, testified before the House Homeland Security Committee (HHSC) regarding TSA Security and had stated, “This is the most tested workforce that I know of in the United States, and it uses the best technology, and I have to say they are the best in the world at what they do.”

Hawley’s full written testimony before the U. S. House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on November 15, 2007, states Federal, State, and local law enforcement work together with the Federal Bureau of Investigation in Joint Terrorism Task Forces across the United States to identify and disrupt terrorist activities within the United States as U.S. Customs and Border Protection activities work to identify any potential terrorists from entering into the US.

Though the investigation continues and not all details can be revealed, the affidavits allege that Ideal Staffing informed the illegal workers they needed identification and the documents did not have to be legitimate. The company was also accused of supplying some with deactivated badges that were issued in other peoples names.

The big questions to be answered is not only how did this occur, but why were workers with deactivated badges allowed to enter secured areas of the O’Hare airport? With thousands of people passing through the airport each year and with the holiday seasons coming up, hopefully illegal activities such as these will be put into check quicker to continually improve and maintain national security and safeguard those who fly.

Other Resources, Blogs and Articles:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment/tv/orl-07nov08,0,6885887.story
http://www.ohare.com/
The Unfriendly Skies



About the Author
Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on national and international law, foreign affairs, criminal justice systems and the psychology of criminal behavior. Smith is currently working toward a B.A. in Intelligence Studies with a focus on analysis and terrorism at American Military University.

November 14, 2007 - 12:29

Terrorists Evading Detection: Too Late, Too Many

By Shelley Smith

The continual saga persists of the government not using its consolidated terrorist watch list effectively. Terrorist suspects can still pass undetected through screening processes. Homeland Security agencies and Customs and Border Protection are still encountering situations where it identified a subject from a watch list record and were processed at a port of entry, admitting them into the United States. Data from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) revealed individuals who were on the government’s “no-fly” list have passed undetected through airline’s passenger screening process and flew internationally.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) receives approximately 2,000 requests each month from individuals requesting removal of their names from the watch list that has resulted from the high rate of error highlighted in the OIG audit, the DHS is still unable to meet the goals of resolving cases within a 30 day processing time. The average processing time is about 44 days. To address these problems the Government Accountability Office (GAO), issued another report, "Terrorist Watch List Screening Efforts to Help Reduce Adverse Effects on the Public".

The challenges of clearing names from the watch list also results from the failure of different DHS offices to share information under TRIP. Travelers can be misidentified on the watch list on a domestic flight and the information not shared with Customs and Border Protection, resulting in the traveler not cleared for border crossings. In February 2007, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) established a program to consolidate the process of appeals and designed the Traveler Redress Inquiry Program (TRIP) for those who want their names removed from the list.

The Office of Inspector General (OIG) in the U.S. Department of Justice revisited the issues covered in the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Center (TXC) management 2005 audit of consolidated watch list records of names and other information of known and suspected terrorists. The redress activities identified a high rate of error (false positives) in approximately 750,000 watch list records and found deficiencies in the terrorist watch list process. The TSC efforts to resolve those complaints have improved since the 2005 audit. Since then the Governmental Accountability Office (GAO) the audit, evaluation, and investigative arm of Congress, issued a restricted version of its report, October 2007 the GAO Report “Terrorist Watch List Screening: Recommendations to Enhance Management Oversight, Reduce Potential Screening Vulnerabilities, and Expand Use of the List”.

Hopefully, these issues will be resolved soon and will re-establish for all more domesticated and friendlier skies.



About the Author
Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on national and international law, foreign affairs, criminal justice systems and the psychology of criminal behavior. Smith is currently working toward a B.A in Intelligence Studies with a focus on analysis and terrorism at American Military University.

October 29, 2007 - 11:38

Terror Attacks in U.S.: 'Not If, But When'

J.J. Green from WTOP Radio has started an intriguing series report called Terror Attacks in U.S.: 'Not If, But When'.

October 18, 2007 - 11:57

Why Aren't We Taxing Terrorism?

By Shelley Smith

Historically in the United States, applying criminal tax laws to lethal organizations is not new and many had been brought down by United States Treasury agents. Today those same resources are being applied by American law enforcement against Al Qaeda and other international terrorist groups. Understanding terrorist financing enforcement through counter terrorism enforcement is fighting political violence through legal proceedings and the rule of law. Yet there is a pending question of, why aren't we taxing terrorism?

Continue reading "Why Aren't We Taxing Terrorism?" »

October 10, 2007 - 07:46

How Terrorists Are Using Freely Accessible Internet Services

From TAM-C Analysts



Google Earth

At least one jihadist Web site, focused on terrorism in Iraq, has published a link to Google Earth, suggesting that "all the mujahideen (jihad fighters) who want to coordinate [actions] in Iraq" use the service, "with the exact city or camp," to obtain aerial photographs.

TAM-C analysts and other intelligence centers have repeatedly warned of the dangers associated with open sources of intelligence and this hyperlinking by Iraqi jihadists confirms these warnings.

Israeli security officials have also indicated this week their frustration over Google Earth having released detailed aerial photos of Israeli territory, including sensitive security facilities. This is the first time that such images have been available to the general public, although the maps used by Google Earth are several years old. An Israeli security source quoted by Ynet news service called the Google Earth development "a gold mine for terrorists."

TAM-C's domestic / eco-terror analysts have also observed the use of Google Earth by eco-terror and Anarchist groups as they plan "direct action" activities.

YouTube

In a related novel use of free resources on the Internet, jihadists uploaded an instructional video on bomb-making to the open-access video-sharing Web site YouTube over the summer. According to reports from Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor)-a private intelligence agency-U.S. authorities instructed YouTube operators to remove the video, which was in the Arabic language, but the fact that it was uploaded to an open Web site such as YouTube indicated an intention to spread the information widely. The clip demonstrated how to construct a detonator for IEDs using a remote-controlled toy.

Stratfor reports also states that U.S. authorities have identified the instructor, whose face is not seen in the video, as a 24-year-old Egyptian who was attending the University of Southern Florida. The man, Ahmed Mohamed, was arrested by police in South Carolina on August 4, 2007 on charges of possession of a destructive device.

According to the New York Times, in part as a result of the above-mentioned YouTube video, U.S. Transportation Security Administration officials will be increasing scrutiny of airline passengers carrying remote-controlled toys.



For more intelligence research and analysis such as this, visit www.terrorresponse.org

September 19, 2007 - 18:37

Secretary Michael Chertoff Blogs

Check out the blog Dept.of Homeland Security launched earlier this month. The Leadership Journal, solely authored (at the moment) by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertfoff, doesn't have many posts yet. But, it looks like he'll be a regular poster.

From the inaugural post . . .

"What This Journal Is Not

This Journal is not to be used to report criminal activity. If you have information for law enforcement, please contact your local police or FBI office or submit a tip to the FBI online.
Do not send in questions or status inquiries about your specific immigration or citizenship case or questions about your passport or visa. Contact USCIS directly regarding citizenship, and the State Department regarding international travel.

This is a thought journal, not a substitute channel for services or general questions. See "Contact Us" on www.dhs.gov, to get help from the Department and components.

Reporter questions will not be posted. Reporters should contact the Press Office through their normal channels."

August 27, 2007 - 14:15

Making HazMat a Part Of the Workplace Culture

By Bob Jaffin

What message should transport buyers and carriers take away from Sept. 11 and from the articles and comments appearing in this and other professional and trade journals?

One answer is this: We have never integrated hazmat into the workplace culture or transportation standards, and we collectively have failed to realize how necessary, and critical, security is in the workplace and on the road.

Continue reading "Making HazMat a Part Of the Workplace Culture" »

August 21, 2007 - 10:29

Two Things to Know Before You're Nuked by Terrorists

Townhall.com columnist Douglas Mackinnon cuts to the chase in this grim take on the possibility of more U.S. terror attacks.

August 16, 2007 - 13:32

Syrians Favor Working With U.S. to Resolve Iraq War

Despite powerful anti-American feelings and support for Iraqi fighters, 63% of Syrians still favor Syria working with the United States to help resolve the Iraq war.

This was a key finding from a phone poll conducted in Syria by Terror Free Tomorrow.

Read Ken Ballen's commentary piece from the Wall Street Journal.

July 30, 2007 - 15:23

Actionable Intelligence Round Up

By Aaron Richman

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.


Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Round Up" »

July 26, 2007 - 15:42

North Africa

By Aaron Richman

Tam-C native Arab language miners have come across a threat made by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) on Algeria and Morocco.

Continue reading "North Africa" »

July 23, 2007 - 10:56

Actionable Intelligence Roundup

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism. For more information about these intelligence briefings, visit


Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Roundup" »

July 12, 2007 - 10:27

Volunteers Needed

By Bob Jaffin

Tornado disasters in Iowa…ice storms in Washington…fires in California … Snow and flooding in New England. One common feature is that the local police and fire, along with the National Guard, are undermanned when responding because too many first responders are off fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Local National Guard armories have been stripped of hardware and assets in order to sustain the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, which means the first-responders are also under-equipped.

This highlights the larger issue of public service and volunteerism in this country.

Continue reading "Volunteers Needed" »

July 11, 2007 - 18:16

What Iranians Really Think

In a commentary article for the Wall Street Journal, Terror Free Tomorrow president Ken Ballen unveils significant findings of the first uncensored public opinion survey of Iran since President Ahmadinejad took office.

The survey shines a light on widespread discontent with the current system of government, the economy and isolation from the West.

Read the full article.

Related Articles and Blogs
Study from Terror Free Tomorrow (viewfromiran.blogspot.com)
Poll Results Point to Internal Dissent Over Iran's Nuke Program (kfwb.com)

July 10, 2007 - 15:26

Movie About Ibrahim Parlak in the Works

Ibrahim Parlak

Director Marc Forster (who's just been tagged to do the newest James Bond feature) has announced plans to direct a new movie inspired by the real-life experience of Kurdish immigrant Ibrahim Parlak.

In 2004, Parklak was taken into custody by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on July 29, 2004, based on his alleged past ties to the PKK, a rebel group that sought to win independence for Northern Kurdistan from Turkish rule.

Conservative political commentator, radio talk show host, columnist, and attorney Debbie Schlussel thinks the planned movie will be a total whitewash of what really took place.

Read Schlussel's take. Then tell us what you think.

"James Bond Director Whitewashes Real Terrorist, Defames ICE Agents, Tries to Influence Court"

Actionable Intelligence Roundup

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.


Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Roundup" »

July 5, 2007 - 11:59

Actionable Intelligence Briefing - July 2, 2007 to July 9, 2007

By Aaron Richman


This Intelligence report from the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response includes information from open and closed intelligence sources.

Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.


Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Briefing - July 2, 2007 to July 9, 2007" »

Regional Powerplays, Shifting Sectarian Dynamics in Iraq

Timothy Brown, a 20-year veteran of the United States Army, wrote an interesting article for the Global Politician about the shifting sectarian dynamics in Iraq. It's a bit long, but a very interesting read.

Excerpt:
The March 2003 United States invasion of Iraq, Operation Iraqi Freedom, reversed 300 years of Turkish Ottoman, Sunni based monarchial and military rule in the country. The toppling of Saddam Hussein, the Baa’th Socialist Party of Iraq, and moreover, the total evisceration of the governmental structure, set in motion the decentralizing centrifugal forces of sectarianism.

Read the entire article at Global Politican online.

June 25, 2007 - 08:12

Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 25 to July 2, 2007


This Intelligence report from the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response includes information from open and closed intelligence sources.

Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.


Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 25 to July 2, 2007" »

June 19, 2007 - 14:25

Case Study: Institute of Terrorism Research and Response

An Overview and Lessons Learned

A high alert was declared in the Jerusalem area at around 11:30am, Tuesday, March 21, 2006, after the domestic Shin Bet intelligence service received a tip-off that militants in a blue van had infiltrated from the West Bank and were planning to carry out an attack in an unknown Israeli city.

Continue reading "Case Study: Institute of Terrorism Research and Response" »

Counter-Terror Events and Alerts From Around the World

20 June 2007 London: Anti-war protests are scheduled for 10 AM in Parliament Square. This demonstration is a protest against possible future military actions aimed at Iran.
Peace Strike, the group sponsoring this event, has previously attempted to serve a citizen's arrest warrant on Great on Britain's PM Tony Blair. (Also see 23 June 2007)

22 June 2007 Quebec City: The GUERRE À LA GUERRE coalition has called for the disruption of military ceremonies that are to occur prior to the Afghanistan deployment of the Royal 22nd Regiment of Valcartier. The group has planned "a day of disruptive actions."

23 - 28 June 2007 London: An Anti-war Camp is scheduled to be conducted in Parliament Square. This unauthorized demonstration (no parade/demonstration permit has been obtained) is intended to influence incoming British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The focus of the demonstrations is the Trident nuclear submarine project, the war in Iraq, and the potential for conflict with Iran.

Peace Strike, the group sponsoring this event, has previously attempted to serve a citizen's arrest warrant on Great on Britain's PM Tony Blair. (Also see 20 June 2007). The unauthorized nature of this demonstration will likely produce street disorder as police take enforcement actions.

24 June 2007 Los Angeles: ANSWER is sponsoring a mass march for immigrant rights in Los Angeles. The theme is ". A strong and united movement for immigrant rights will bolster the overall struggle for civil rights and against racism." ANSWER events typically include mass civil disobedience.

27 June - 1 July 2007 Atlanta, GA: The United States Social Forum (USSF) is dedicated to opposing United States policies and actions within the country and abroad. They will be holding a conference in Atlanta to discuss various issues and to build an action calendar for the next year. The Forum includes "anti-imperialism" and anti-war groups. TAM-C analysts expect the USSF to focus attention on the Iraq war through legal demonstrations.

28 June - 3 July 2007 Glen Woods, Scotland: Protests targeting the Faslane Trident nuclear submarine base are scheduled. Billed as a "student camp", it will include protests and direct action.

29 June 2007 Montreal: Anarchy groups will be demonstrating their anger at the CN Railroad and their support of Indian activists who state that the railroad was built a stolen indigenous people's land.

30 June 2007 London: A Gay Pride parade is scheduled to start on Baker Street at 1 PM. This even will end with a rally in Trafalgar Square. Parade organizers expect anti-gay protests along the parade route .

30 June 2007 Leeds, UK: The World Development Movement will be holding a training/educational program at the University of Leeds. The program, aimed at anti-establishment groups from across the world, is entitled "Whose Rules Rule?" Although this is billed as an educational program, TAM-C analysts expect "anti-globalization" protests in the area.

30 June 2007 London: In preparation for protests at August's Climate Action Camp, British ecological activists are conducting a day of Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) training. The training is designed to help the activists prepare for confrontations with police and security personnel. At this time, protest leaders are being asked to use this training opportunity to conduct actual protests in the area of the construction of the International Olympic site that is being prepared for the 2012 Olympics. TAM-C researchers will continue to monitor this in an attempt to confirm that the protests will actually occur and to provide an exact location.

30 June 2007 Multiple Locations: Racist organizations are mourning the death of David Lane, the founder of the militant group, The Order, who died in prison. Racist organizations are attempting to organize a Global Day Of Remembrance And Protest For David Lane. Locations with active "White Nationalist" groups should prepare for protests and counter protests surrounding this event.

6 - 8 July 2007 Iceland: A summer of international dissent and action against infrastructure improvement in Iceland will begin 6 July 2007. These protests are aimed at the improvement of roads and the construction of a power plant that will enable the growth of industry in the island nation.

19 - 23 July 2007 Los Angeles: Animal Rights 2007, the animal rights movement's annual national conference will be taking place in Los Angeles. Speakers include representatives of extremely militant AR organizations − from SHAC (Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty) to SPEAK (the organization currently trying to shut down Oxford University's research lab [currently under construction]).

TAM-C analysts expect street demonstrations throughout this period. However, organizers are planning for demonstrations on 23 July 2007. Likely targets are UCLA's animal research labs.

Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 18 to June 25 , 2007


This Intelligence report from the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response includes information from open and closed intelligence sources.

Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.


Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 18 to June 25 , 2007" »