AMU Homeland Security Opinion

Hundreds of Thousands Protest China-Taiwan Trade Deal

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

A demonstrator counts 500,000 protestors in strength; the AP counts over 200,000 and the police estimate only 100,000 for Sunday. On March 24, protestors were kicked out of Taiwan’s Parliament offices by authorities using water cannons.

Going with the AP figure, hundreds of thousands are vehemently occupying parliament in Taiwan for two weeks and today, after the debate and passage of a China-Taiwan trade agreement that will allow greater purchases of their indigenous services sector.

They are chanting: “Fight for democracy. Retract the service trade pact.”

China has long outstripped the “made in Taiwan” or even the “made in Japan” production status in the US and the greater world. Taiwan has become a service oriented economy since (making up almost three-quarters). Long gone are the “Taiwan miracle” with consistent growth rates by GDP of over 9 percent or 7 percent per year. Rates now found in states like China. But Taiwan is far from out. GDP growth jumped to almost 12 percent in 2010 but dropped to almost no growth in 2012 and presently GDP growth is about slowed to a meager 2.95 percent.

Beijing is presently Taipei’s biggest trading partner.

Contenders claim the new deal threatens to create even more economic dependency and the purchase of their largest service companies. It therefore is a threat to their local employment, economy as a matter of greater Chinese leverage and political identity as the separate rulers and heirs of greater mainland China.

The soft power maneuvers from Beijing could also be seen from the vantage point of Taipei political leadership as a move of necessity— the competition and survival of Taiwanese service industry against regional contenders and an appeasement to China. Their argument would be one of interdependence that trade liberalization empirically demonstrates.

However, the trade agreement cannot fully be intended to weaken Taiwan. In reality it only opens up 80 mainland Chinese services to Taiwanese compared to the 64 Taiwanese sectors that China can purchase. Moreover, China already has the advantage for some time and they do stand to benefit financially. But China, if it begins a clandestine commercial take-overs of industries from banking, to supermarkets and taxis and transports could literally shut-down Taiwan at will or in the face of a military stand-off or spat between them.

Such actions of Beijing encirclement of the island state also get little frowns and perhaps international cheer; meanwhile, its military posturing or aggressive maritime actions between larger rival like Japan or smaller ones in the South China Seas, benefit Beijing little. It does place China in a more advantageous political position in that they will hold more direct ownership of Taiwanese corporations and therefore influence into Taipei politics. It does potentially threaten Taiwanese independence in actuality.

President of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou has just yesterday assured the strong student-based spearheaders the demonstrations that future agreements will be more specific and scrutinized. He and his national Party promised a thorough review last year but the agreement was fast tracked and pushed through, according to open news sources.

President Ma insists that the services pact is vital to Taiwan interests. Since 2008, Ma has increasingly warmed relations with Beijing but dissenters fear Taiwan will become a vassal like Hong Kong in the long run. Just decades ago until now, Taiwan and China faced off through constant crises in the Straits and military exercises as a show of force.

Still, Taiwan’s days as a serious competitor economically, politically or military with China are completely over. The new approach in stable relations seen by Ma is through economic deals like this. The problem will be with Taiwan’s internal political grievances and resistance that for now appears to be marginalized.

Nevertheless, the more concessions Taiwan gives China, the safer it is on the surface from China and the less safe it is on the streets as political opposition grows. At the same time, the more of Taiwan China consumes the less independence it will have from the mainland underneath the surface.

There are potential breakthroughs here politically, however. If Beijing continues to hold the view of Taiwan as a “laboratory democracy” it may be a prospective model of future democracy in the mainland; especially as the two get closer and Beijing sees the advantages and the successes of a politically stable Taiwan. After all, if the Chinese ever riot in the millions, they will want their rioters to be as passive as those in Taiwan and they will want their political opposition to be likewise, structured with a modicum of civility.

Ensuring Taiwan political stability during this process and Beijing political reform could be weaved into a larger US-China [US-China-Taiwan] foreign policy or at least regional calculus.

 

 

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