AMU Homeland Security Intelligence Middle East Opinion

Iran Nuclear Agreement Scheduled Start Is January 20

Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

The White House: “Today’s agreement to implement the Joint Plan of Action announced in November marks the first time in a decade that the Islamic Republic of Iran has agreed to specific actions that halt progress on its nuclear program and roll back key parts of the program. Beginning January 20th, Iran will for the first time start eliminating its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium and dismantling some of the infrastructure that makes such enrichment possible.”

“Frequent inspections” from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are also a part of the deal. So long as Iran follows the plan, over the next six months the P5+1 (the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China) will implement “modest” relief in the form of lifting partial sanctions.

“Imposing additional sanctions now will only risk derailing our efforts to resolve this issue peacefully, and I will veto any legislation enacting new sanctions during the negotiation.”

“With today’s agreement, we have made concrete progress.”

The White House maintains that “unprecedented sanctions and tough diplomacy helped to bring Iran to the negotiating table.” Unfortunately, the reality could be that Russian and Syrian bridge played an even larger role. The successes of the Russian-led chemical weapons ban treaty process stalled a US military strike intended for Syria’s Bashar al Assad regime. The Syrian civil war and the rising of al Qaeda there has stayed America’s hand in distributing weapons to the Muslim Brotherhood, while they are being infiltrated by more radical Sunni variant of Islam. Therefore, the combination of a trust relationship was started. Iran no doubt saw their moment and pondered: ‘If they can deal with our Syrian brothers the Assad regime, they can maybe deal with us too.”

It did not hurt that the new democratically elected Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani sought a diplomatic way out. It is far less hypocritical for the US from this perspective. Consider that the Iranian hardliners were booted out of office for moderate reformers that would now work closer with Washington and Europe to secure national gains. And while the Ayatollah still has the ultimate say regarding nuclear policy in the Islamic Republic, there is much less effrontery in the style and character of the new diplomacy. Guile in the new Iranian approach is off course to be tested further for any validity in reason and a hope of abstinence in light of nuclear weapons.

Israel remains vehemently against the Agreement. Pessimists continue to hold that it makes the US-led position weak. They can site the recent diplomatic gestures towards Iran from the perspective of the West just before the unprecedented economic sanctions; the military build-up in the Gulf; the US and Israeli pressure and covert war or the chain of Security Council resolutions demanding that Tehran forsake all reprocessing and enrichment operations.

Further still: What happens after the six months? Is there another concession to be made?

These criticisms fall short of a working alternative. This Agreement places the US and the international community officially back in Iran and more accessible to their reformed leadership. Most importantly, the entire agreement is a gradual step for communication and credibility. Iran must ask itself if nuclear weapons are worth more than gaining trust and support from the US and the world as a future friends or remaining isolated and on the unwanted list.. It must consider that Saudi Arabia has for a long time been fashioning and lavishing itself with Westerners to reach incredible gains. After a short consideration, does Iran want to remain rouge or come out of the shadows?

Knocking at the gates of their republic are the Sunni extremists that want to shut down their operations in Syria and Iraq and annihilate them all. An ever encroaching Saudi Arabia on the Syrian and Iraqi battlegrounds pushes North and East. Saudi Arabia can temporarily, but foolishly, afford to piggy-back Sectarian jihad and insurgency gains. Iran cannot. They need new allies and cash.

Comments are closed.