By William Tucker
In September of last year I presented a webcast entitled A Nuclear Middle East. While the presentation and accompanying paper are still salient, it is time to revisit the section that touches on Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon capability. Fortunately, new information has made its way into the press from two reliable sources – the IAEA and a former CIA double agent in Iran. Over the past few years the IAEA has grown increasingly frustrated by the cooperation offered by Iran. In 2009, the UN agency leaked portions of an internal document that was rather alarming in that it presented, in detail, non-civilian experimentation within the Iranian nuclear program. In May of this year that document, which has since been updated, was made public. The release of this document would seem to indicate that the ambiguity of Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon has been removed.
Further information about Iran’s nuclear program has been revealed at a steady pace over the last two weeks by a former CIA spy within the IRGC. Reza Khalili, author of the phenomenal book A Time to Betray, has been reaching out to his contacts in Iran. As a result Mr. Khalili has presented timely information on the nuclear program’s progress and the role of several nations helping Iran in its pursuit. Perhaps the most important piece of information is the report that China has supplied machinery for tooling the warheads in preparation for mating with a nuclear device. In the AP article that first disclosed the IAEA’s findings regarding Iran’s nuclear program it was mentioned that Iran was working on building a warhead for its existing missile arsenal that was “most likely nuclear.” These two reports from two different sources offer confirmation of Iran’s intentions.
In my paper from last fall I stated, “looking ahead to fall of 2011 and into 2012 we can expect that Iran will have at least two simple fission-type nuclear weapons based upon designs similar to those used by North Korea.” The previously mentioned reports, along with news that Iran has ‘cold tested’ nuclear device components show that my assessment is still relevant. The only piece that Iran is missing is the highly enriched uranium. In a recently published report for the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Gregory S. Jones, from RAND Corporation, stated that Iran is about two months away from enriching enough uranium for its first nuclear device. If Mr. Jones is correct in his assessment then it is possible that Iran will be one short step from its long sought after nuclear weapons capability.
Although Iran appears to be moving steadily toward its goal, the Supreme Leader felt it necessary to accelerate the nuclear program. This information was obtained by Mr. Khalili and presented in an emergency report to the U.S. Congress. The aforementioned information points to Iran having a nascent nuclear capability in the short term – which falls into the time frame included in my original analysis. While the media has been steadily reporting on Iran’s nuclear program over the last few weeks, politicians in Washington have been noticeably silent on the issue. Their collective silence is rather strange with the 2012 campaign season well under way. In the past these leaders have stated that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable. Now it appears that a nuclear Iran is inevitable.
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