By William Tucker
A report run by several media outlets yesterday carried the seemingly strange news that 25 individuals with close ties to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been arrested for practicing black magic and summoning genies. In reality this is nothing more than political cover for the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who ordered the arrests, but the implications for the government of Iran are quite profound. In addition to this report Iranian dissidents are claiming that 37 commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) were arrested last month for planning a coup. The reported plan, as conveyed by a source in the Guards, was to seize 130 government institutions in Tehran. I have not been able to verify the arrests of the IRGC commanders, but it would make sense if the Supreme Leader has decided to clean house and remove any threat to clerical rule.
The current rift in Iranian politics came about with the ascension of Ahmadinejad to the Presidency – the first non-cleric to hold the office since 1981. His political windfall was made possible by the quiet backing of the Khamenei and other hard-line clerics that were seeking a way to roll back the influence of the so-called reformers. The problem with this strategy is two-fold. First, Ahmadinejad carried a significant amount of influence outside of the clerical elite that was not accounted for, and secondly, he ran for President as a populist promising, among other things, to tackle corruption. By promising to take on corruption, Ahmadinejad would have to confront the clerics that had been in power since the revolution.
As one would expect, Ahmadinejad has taken strides to secure his position by naming many IRGC officers to his cabinet and trying to position an eventual successor. The inclusion of former IRGC officers in his cabinet has reportedly created a split among some within the IRGC. The IRGC is constitutionally beholden only to the Supreme Leader and if a split has taken place then one would assume that Ahmadinejad is actively seeking to undermine the clerical elite. This could serve to explain the reported arrests of the 37 IRGC commanders and why the Supreme Leader created yet another militia in 2009, the Haydaryan, which answers only to him.
It is widely believed that Ahmadinejad has chosen Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, his current Chief of Staff, as the successor to the Presidency. Ahmadinejad had originally intended to name Mashaei to the position of First Vice President, but was forced to relent in the face of harsh opposition. As a retaliatory measure Ahmadinejad tried to force the resignation of Heidar Moslehi, the chief of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (Ahmadinejad claimed he was spying on Mashaei for Khamenei), but the Supreme Leader ordered Moslehi back to work. As a result the President simply stopped showing up for work for two weeks thereafter. Only days after Ahmadinejad decided to return to his duties 25 of his closest aides, including Chief of Staff Mashaei, were arrested.
Khamenei is clearly on the offensive against Ahmadinejad, but the President is not without levers of his own. As President, Ahmadinejad administers the government and can clean house within any ministry he controls or divert funds away from projects important to the clerical elite. It really comes down to how far Ahmadinejad wants to push things. Since he has been President he has eventually backed down to the Supreme Leader after throwing a brief tantrum, but with this being his second term and his preferred successor behind bars Ahmadinejad could become more aggressive.
Associated Press photo: From left – Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashir al-Assad, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
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