Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
There is a potential cultural/territorial/religious genocide taking place in the Central African Republic (CAR). The situation is predominantly one of Muslim nomadic cattle herders versus the 80 percent Christian and Animist farmers.
The state has lost all central power with the disintegration of the Michel Djotodia’s Seleka Alliance and the fragmentation into militias and warlords.
About 400,000 people have fled their homes and villages amidst raids, murder, torture, rape, disease and starvation.
A UN Security Council draft resolution is underway with France taking a lead role. Last Tuesday, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that they are raising their troop presence there from 400 to 1,400. The six month mission would be coordinated with the African Union troops. There are 2,500 regional African troops within the CAR.
To secure a population of 4.6 million Central African Republicans, going by a formula of strict minimal force requirements ratio of 3 to 1000 troops to civilian population would require the commitment of around 14,000 soldiers. Even if a peacekeeping force of 10,000 troops eventually got involved, it is hardly a realistic number. Additionally, apart from the violence, a humanitarian mission to protect over 400,000 internally displaced or refugee civilians emigrating from CAR is critical within the crisis of rising political instability.
Located in a highly unstable region of Africa, CAR is surrounded by Chad, South Sudan, the Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Aside from France, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recognized the perils of CAR and this month backed the idea of a UN peacekeeping force to prevent the instability from spreading to surrounding states and attempt to quell it within CAR. Ban backed a force of 6,000 troops and 1,700 police officers and potentially another 3,000 UN troops.
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