By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
After annexing Crimea under a military occupation and pro-Russian militias, Moscow seizes one of the last Ukrainian military bases there. It was reported that Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed the Russian flags now flying over 189 military installations in Crimea.
After the initial mobilization of 150,000 Russian troops on alert, February 26, it has had 8,500 artillery troops involved in a “snap” military exercise ten days ago near the Ukraine border; like it did before sending troops into Ukraine. There were a reported 30,000 Russian troops in the Crimea, with Ukraine claiming that thousands have entered within the last week alone.
Russia is using a combination of conventional military mobilization, special operations forces, ethnic militias and targeting energy and military installations within Ukraine and the Crimea.
On Saturday, US NATO forces commander in Europe, General Philip M. Breedlove, warned that: “There is absolutely sufficient force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transnistria if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome.”
This would mean that Russian forces could sweep across Ukraine. Transnistria lies within Maldova, bordering Southwestern Ukraine. Transnistria is of potential interest because of a 2006 vote to reunite with Russia and has a minority of thirty percent that are ethnically Russian and maybe fifty percent that speak Russian. Moscow has 440 peacekeepers there after the 1992 cease-fire agreement between Moldova and Transnistris. Russia has other servicemen guarding arms depots.
It has been argued as well as observed that southern and eastern Ukraine is slowly being taken over by ethnic agents in place and Russian operatives through subversive or unconventional means. These are the pockets where pro-Russian sentiment runs high. It is important to remember, however, that this is Russian instigated, it is not all official—meaning, much of it is done by the separatist ethnic Russians.
General Breedlove has been trying to make the rational case of greater 28 member state NATO action in response to Russian aggression and threat posture. The present force posture of NATO is not yet in a position to counter Russia, Breedlove has advised that it at least rethink its position and readiness in light of the growing Russian threat.
This has not yet been done because Western powers have struck back through economic and political sanctions against Russia. While this may be a more effective mid-term goal, it is not enough to alter the re-assertion of stated and observed Russian military action targeted at sovereign states with ethnic Russian populations. The most vulnerable are the former Soviet republics like the Baltics.
General Breedlove: “We need to think about our allies, the positioning of our forces in the alliance and the readiness of those forces … such that we can be there to defend against it if required, especially in the Baltics and other places.”
In spite of all the cuts from Western nations and the Russian increase in defense spending, NATO is still a force to be reckoned with. By total troops, NATO had 3,370,000 service members in 2013, according to NATO’s statistics as reported by Starts and Stripes. Russia had less than 800,000.
NATO also spends a record 60 percent of the world’s total military expenditure.
Still, none of this intimidates Russia without a proper response or mobilization. Yet, the mobilization is such a delicate thing and the timing of it is also important. When? Where? How much? Is it too late? Will doing so provoke more of a response or a greater seizure of Ukraine and other ethnic Russian pockets of states?
One thing that can most likely be agreed at this point, however, is that a basic military response in repositioning NATO forces and taking Russia as a threat is now a vital priority that cannot and should not be overlooked.
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