AMU Homeland Security Opinion

Russian “Aid” Convoy Breaches Ukraine Border

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

A convoy of about 260 white Russian trucks was originally scheduled to travel from Moscow and be inspected in Kharkiv, Ukraine, before the Ukrainian authorities would permit the supplies to enter into pro-Russian separatist held territories. It was diverted south instead by Moscow and waited five days for inspection in Russia. Only some 35 trucks were ‘properly’ inspected and the inspection process has increasingly enflamed even more suspicions from both sides: Russia claiming that its critical humanitarian efforts are being stonewalled and Ukraine claiming that the mystery trucks did not really have many supplies at all and they suspect the attempt is a Trojan Horse to supply the separatist fighters with weapons.

Today, 100 trucks have crossed the Russia-Ukraine border in breach of international law, according to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. No one knows what is in the trucks for certain, except Moscow. Even the Red Cross refused to travel along with the fleet of Russian trucks because it could not guarantee the safety of its personal from all parties involved. Russia has warned Kiev against taking actions against Moscow’s ‘humanitarian’ convoy. The first line of trucks was reported to have arrived in Luhansk.

Kiev has called this breach of its borders an act of war, has asked the international community to condemn Russia, but has not taken any actions against what it cites as the latest move or provocation from Russia. The U.S. joined in threatening Moscow with more economic if it did not pull the trucks out of Ukrainian territory and planned talks with the UNSC.

President Vladimir Putin spoke with Chancellor Angela Merkel beforehand that Moscow can no longer wait and that the ethnic Russians in Luhansk and need their help. Merkel is scheduled to fly to Kiev to show her support and urge Poroshenko to call on a cease-fire.

Does Moscow hold all of the cards? The Russians, having the advantage of military superiority, proximity and an underlying ‘humanitarian’ mission can at any time now claim a Ukrainian attack on its illegal ‘peace’ convoy in white. Yet even if such attack has not been made or friendly fire occurs, they might still at any time enter the conflict with some trumped justification partly real or imagined. For all we know, the trucks have food, water, medical supplies and weapons and ammunition, and that all the drivers are Russian special forces (260 plus) that will remain and help the separatists fight Kiev. Moreover, Russia is already engaged in a war of denial with Ukraine, having a constant barrage of rocket and mortar fire from its borders in support of separatist held territories since early August.

The Moscow play of sending in a White Bishop onto the board was an interesting and well calculated move. The Western and Kiev response to delay the so-called ‘humanitarian’ fleet was indeed short-sided without a backup plan or anticipation of an obvious push. Breaching the sovereignty of another country is also a violation of international law, of course, but Russia has done this regularly for months since just after the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia

What would have been more interesting would have been a race of appearances to supply humanitarian aid in competition with Moscow’s convoy. At that point, Kiev could have claimed that humanitarian supplies were entering the rebel held territories and Moscow’s supply could be detained longer for inspection. Kiev should be trying real hard to supply the rebels with food, water, generators and medicine because there is a real humanitarian issue. Aid can be played by both sides. This did not happen. Although they did call a cease-fire, this has not been a real priority for them, unfortunately.

Since the beginning of the conflict, the UN estimates that 190,000 Eastern Ukrainians have been internally displaced while (fled to other parts of Ukraine) while 197,000 fled to Russia as well as some 28,000 also become refugees in other states. So while only 2,000 have been reported killed, over 400,000 have fled their homes and the ones that remain have electricity, food and water shortages, among other considerations because of the conflict.

Ukraine nationalists and pro-Westerners made big gains ousting Viktor Yanukovych and seizing power but it hardly needs a total victory to call a win from Russia a win. At the same time, Russia gained Crimea and a virtual hold over Luhansk and Donetsk and that is not a total loss. But while Russia might be content with partially holding the last stretch of some Eastern Ukrainian real estate, it will certainly go the extra mile to secure them.

Ukraine must “appear” to be more humane than Russia in the conflict, at the very least. This requires more humanitarian aid attempts. Russia works hard at this ‘benign’ image but it can always claim that it is not actually attacking the separatists and that fascists in Kiev are instigating persecutory measures on ethnic Russians. Kiev’s efforts to charge an enemy that is larger, more capable, better equipped and possess the high-ground without exposed flanks, appears extremely unrealistic. They will at some point be seen as the aggressors before they realize that they have gone too far and should have stopped earlier on. The virtual political annexation of a possible near-term Russian stronghold will most likely be impossible to breach militarily as Russia extends an Iron Curtain. When you can notwin the people and ground politically or militarily you lose totally.

 

 

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