AMU Homeland Security Opinion

Russian Infiltration Steamrolling Into Ukraine

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

Russian strategy is to legitimize a “retaking” of Ukraine from out of the EU’s grasp, in spite of their wishes. The Crimea and the certain eastern portions are the exception, where a majority are pro-Russian and also substantially, ethnically, Russian.

Since the beginning of the crisis, the Western failure has been to assume that their political victories within Kiev could defeat Russian steal and “pro-Russian” troops on the ground; whether in the form of guerrilla militias orchestrated by Russian intelligence, or Russian troops without country markings securing military installations. The proximity of Russia and Russian forces, the lack of economic, political and realpolitik involved, which the Russians cherish—all that was tossed aside for some foolish notion of the “people’s will.”

Moscow’s counter the democratic movement of protests/riots against ousted President Viktor Yanukovych, was to first engineer their own control in favorable pro-Russian regions and then secure those political gains with fortified military installments.

The Western failure to respond with the commitment of NATO troops to secure political gains within Kiev might end up being their greatest mistake, as the tension gets worse and it looks as though Russia is transition from infiltration toward possible invasion. This might be limited to eastern portions of Ukraine but they are certainly not in fallback positions. Without any real opposition aside from a few American F-16s buzzing around and a few ships, there is effectively no real military challenge in proximity.

The lack of a NATO deterrent around Ukraine and the strong play with NATO member Turkey, Russian military action continues unchecked and fallacious diplomacy makes this situation even worse. Ukraine’s forces are not match. Already there is some altercation taking place along the Crimea border and a false sense of morale.

Russia was possibly looking for a genuine way out of aggression before, as a dishonored “guest” of Ukraine, but they did not receive it. The way out would have been a more equitable share of political Ukraine. Nothing on the surface indicated any attempt at this. Without any concessions, Russia is positioned to take further bites of its own initiative or possibly eat the whole country altogether, as there is no rival military in place or showing a clear will or readiness to move against them

The Western zero-sum diplomacy from a position of perceived moral legitimacy is still weaker in the short-term than forces on the ground or nearby. The Russians are more interested in their “state possessions” within Ukraine than their people. They first wanted strategic military locations and now next they will likely target their state-owned gas facilities in the east. They also have an upcoming annexation referendum and the President of Ukraine in their pocket.

But all that aside, Russia is likely in for the bigger challenge in the long-term. Like the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation’s presence in the greater Ukrainian republic is not welcomed and even in parts where there is a pro-Russian tilt, the Moscow will likely overstay its welcome, taking more than it gives back. It i important to remember that this was not Russia’s first play. They did not want to rekindle the images of the Red Army in former Soviet republics. Now they have.

In the short term Western economic and political sanctions imposed against Russian for their open show of hostilities will eat away at Moscow more than they will the US. New alliances will form on Russia’s part out of necessity with even more unsavory states. Their ultimate instability will not be in the West’s best interests.

As for the EU, they will need to find alternatives to natural gas, which will be costly. It is uncertain how long the Europeans can hold out if tough sanctions escalate; especially the most gas dependent member states. Russia supplies about 30 percent of their natural gas in total and is reported to supply around 10 percent of their overall energy needs.

The Crimean referendum to join Russia is scheduled for tomorrow.

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