AMU Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

Saudi Arabia Going ‘Rogue’

Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

It was only a matter of time before the Saudi Dynasty was forced to officially part with a Western vision of the Middle East and yield to its own domestic political situation. It is forced to side with the more radical internal realities brewing underneath the surface. Human rights, women’s rights, democracy- all of these are a threat to Saudi Arabia, but now even more since the Arab Spring. They have effectively made their choice. The West is unwilling to oversee any more delay of liberal progress in Saudi Arabia and the alliances and geopolitics in the region are shifting around the conflict epicenter, in Syria.

Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry: “Accordingly, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, based on its historical responsibilities towards its people, Arab and Islamic nations as well as towards the peoples aspiring for peace and stability all over the world, announces its apology for not accepting membership of the Security Council until the council is reformed and enabled, effectively and practically, to carry out its duties and responsibilities in maintaining international peace and security.”

The Saudi’s remain fixed in the sand over their support for the most extreme Syrian rebels but the US and EU are not so sure anymore, even with or what constitutes moderates. They have decided to utilize the instruments of international power beyond their hemisphere in negotiations like the UN resolution banning chemical weapons. But for the Saudi’s, they remain in opposition to Western objectives and democratic values.

In Syria, for example, the Saudis oppose the moderates, were upset there was no military strike and discard the idea of the Geneva II. In the case of Iran, they are opposed to any better relations- in some ways siding with the Israeli position. As for the UN, Saudi Arabia just turned down an appointment to the Security Council that shocked the General-Secretary as much as it did the world. That was there way of saying, ‘the heck with you. You turned your back on us in Syria.’

The refusal to join the UNSC might have been the first sign of their departure from the Western world for the foreseeable future. The second sign was through an intelligence official. The Saudi Kingdom now plans to ‘punish’ the Americans by limiting contact with them over Israel-Palestine, Syria and Iran, according to their intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Yet the Saudis are really drifting apart.

Is this a bad thing? Yes and no. It would be great if they were on-board and more understanding of the principles of a political solution and the ousting of the Assad government peacefully at the table. Obviously, they now have to worry about tens of thousands of fighters they have funded and supported to wage jihad, turning on them for shutting it down.

What does it mean for the US if bilateral relations suffer with the Saudis? For counterterrorism and counter international jihad, it might seem like a big loss or a supernova impact. But to get to this point, the divorce between the US and Saudi Kingdom was long in the making. The fact is, it is okay to see the world differently. It is not okay to see the world ‘fundamentally’ differently. Neither state will be one abandon their own political value system or national interests. Point in fact, Saudi is backing groups so similar to al Qaeda that they are indistinguishable in either ideology or purpose and willing to use methods of terrorism if it will enhance their objectives.

In the past, the US-Saudi relationship was set on a convenience of Cold War terms and then energy trade dependence and then to some degree a security cooperation dependence; especially over the last decade. Those years are history. The two states have irreconcilable differences. They can appear as friends but they hold radically different systems of governance, interests and visions of the Middle East.

Internal power struggles of who will ascend to the throne, domestic politics of religious extremism and two recent reports just released by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International blasted the Kingdom with abuses- which upset them just before the decision to drop out of the UN. Moreover, the US and the UN are inactive and useless, to the Saudis- they can no longer be used as vessels of their state interest. Instead, they are more likely to build their colonized and controlled body of Muslims of all sects called the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The OIC has 57 Muslim state members which the Kingdom seeks to empower and there find a greater identity.

Keeping the Saudis in power was only a US priority to prevent something worse in American foreign policy and to secure vital energy resources and to ‘hope’ for a bright liberal future. Instead, the US and Saudi Arabia made gains on trade and the Kingdom got wealthy. But as time past, the Saudis did not get better politically and the US did not push them very hard politically- mostly economic in strategic focus. The royal house continued to appease demands from the most extremist religious elements. At the same time they appeared to be making concessions to Westernism in small increments socially or with human rights, creating a sort of hybrid of modernity and salafist Islamic push. But the Arab Spring was the first real catalyst and now Syria.

International relations and internal realities will most likely keep Saudi Arabia on a far different course no matter what happens with short term diplomacy or concessions. While the West slowly forgets Syria began as a result of President Bashar al Assad’s brutality attacking peaceful demonstrators calling for his removal, Riyadh will not forget; and they will not be able to stop the international jihad against Assad’s Alawite Shia base. The bigger worry looming in the background will be the regional power shifts and the power of anti-Western regional institutions within Central Asia.

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