Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
In Syria- chemical weapons inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) have abolished six of over 20 sites and have verifies 11 of them. The Civil War is changing. With the hesitancy to support the “rebels,” and the continued support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, President Assad continues to make gains, driving the resistance into Turkey and other border states. With the humanitarian crisis of over 6 million homeless Syrians (mostly women and children- an estimated 80 percent) and reported starvation; fatwas that allow the eating of cats; or the constant change of hands of city districts or villages, the condition of Syria is deteriorating- more out of increased jihad, terrorism and Assad’s neglect for his own people than a war of military rebels against Syria’s security services. The border states are more heavily strained and will be plagued by Islamic militancy and acts of terrorism as Assad expels some of them who temporarily regroup or take harbor there instead- choosing softer targets for the cause. The problem in Syria remains one of Assad and terrorism, not one or the other. But some hope of international cooperation that includes Russia, Iran and China is positive and will most likely be better than greater international division.
In Iran- talks in Geneva around the state’s nuclear program might be a win for both the world and their country. It is too early to get ones hopes up for certainty. Even Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister preconditioning his audience, warned that “the result is better than in Almaty (talks held in April) but does not guarantee further progress. There could have been better cooperation.” But if the negotiations are conducted at the ‘essential needs of the state level’, Iran may see greater reason and the West may see greater lenience. Sanctions for greater nuclear program transparency and a guarantee on not developing weapons grade uranium. Even with a little fallout, Iran is still looking like a better future tourist destination for the West than Russia.
In Russia- report failure to launch. There is no change for the better outside of an accelerated strategic diplomacy and successes in increasing the Bear’s descent into the Central Asian Republics and the Middle East. Internally, more human rights abuses increase at a daily rate. Xenophobia becomes more divisive; a Dutch Green Peace ship is seized last week and the crew is charged with piracy for 15 years in a Russian prison cell!
Russia’s brutalities are many times tit-for-tat offenses against their perceived enemies- sometimes and mostly of equal measure and retaliation. A Dutch diplomat is attacked by ‘political’ muggers. Russia’s man in the Netherlands was beaten just before by police: ‘We will show them who beats who,’ was their reply- even it means attacking an innocent man. But many other diplomats in Russia are constantly harassed and watched also by government agents, including from the US.
The Russian government also incites or uses a semi-fascist style of crowd nationalism to target ‘undesirables’ or to send messages to individuals, groups or even countries. It can use a team of thugs or the instruments of state; it can use favorable interpretations or arbitrary execution of laws, a posthumous trial and so on.
The biggest problem remains Russians crusade of shutting down all forms of Western soft-power access, targeting or expelling non-profit organizations, now harassing, monitoring and beating diplomats and brutally cracking down on internal political threats or strong opponents. Such behavior can only be described as state sponsored hooliganism at home and abroad. Russians are bullies to us, but how do we Westerners appear to them?
We must seem like the weak and the reluctant ‘lucky’ powers on the planet- those spoiled rich kids on the block, who, through no justice of self-efforts alone, but exploitative acts by sly criminal dogs- are ripe for a good whipping the Russian authorities. That sounds very much like the Socialist Soviet Republic sentiment, even if they have abandoned the collective.
However the Russians do in fact view Westerners, they are certainly in a dangerous transition to reverse liberalism of almost every meaningful principle and promote a new type of Russian pseudo-liberal, social nationalism, around the Putin personality perspective. The image of the man, his country, his friends (in power) and “the enemy” are never a good combination in any way shape or form.
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