By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent for In Homeland Security
Syrian opposition forces have claimed that the Syrian Air Force has increased the number of sorties it carries out each day from the average of 12-20 to over 200. Reports from the Syrian opposition, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, and various media outlets claim that the majority of the airstrikes have been carried out in the western portion of Syria against a wide variety of rebel targets. One province in the east, Deir al-Zour, was likewise targeted as the Assad regime continues to battle the Islamic State in the area. The number of casualties resulting from these strikes – civilian or otherwise – is not currently known. This is unsurprising given the scope of the current air war waged by the Syrian government. Sources within the Syrian government did claim that they had destroyed two aircraft that had fallen into the hands of the Islamic State, but they continue to search for more. Furthermore, the Assad regime claimed to have supplied arms to Kurdish forces in Kobane. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been any independent verification of either claim, and given the erroneous claims from the government in the past, it would be prudent to remain skeptical for the moment.
The Syrian air war against militant rebels and civilians alike has been ongoing since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, however the rapid increase of sorties in the past two days has been noteworthy. In response to the uptick in tempo, the Syrian Observatory posited that the increase may be related to the US and coalition desire to train and arm Syrian opposition movements to combat the Islamic State. Assad would see this as an eventual threat against his regime as the new weapons and training could easily be used against his regime or interests. The Syrian regime could also be looking at better positioning itself for any possible future agreement to end hostilities. Though any agreement is a ways off it would be in the interest of the Assad regime to prepare for the eventuality. The conflict in Syria and Iraq is certainly complicated and each player in the region is doing their best to protect their interests and past demands could shift or be discarded altogether. The increase in airstrikes against Syrian rebels may well fit into both a short and long term paradigm. For now we can look to how this will affect the anti-IS coalition and if it will result in a more aggressive posture against Assad.
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