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Syrian Ministers Killed in Damascus Bombing

By William Tucker

A reported attack on the National Security building in Damascus has killed three top Syrian ministers and wounded several others. Unfortunately, none of the information surrounding the reported attack can be verified. Two groups did, however, claim responsibility for the attack – the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Lord of the Martyrs Brigade. State run media did confirm an attack took place and stated that Gen. Daoud Rajiha, the defense minister; Gen. Assef Shawkat, Bashir al-Assad’s brother in law and top security chief to the regime; and Gen. Hassan Turkomani, a former defense minister were all killed in the attack. Rumors are spreading that other ministers were killed in the attack, but perhaps the most perplexing aspect of this reported attack is the lack of any visible damage to the National Security building. A bodyguard to one of the ministers is alleged to have placed an explosive device in the meeting area, but again, this information cannot be verified. Conspiracy theories are spreading that suggest al-Assad was behind the blast as a way to ensure that other insiders do not defect by threatening their safety.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter who was behind the attack. If it was an opposition group, then it shows that Assad cannot protect those closest to him. If it was an inside job, then the incentive to remain by Assad’s side has just evaporated. What really matters is that armed opposition groups are waging an assault on Damascus and support among Assad loyalists is collapsing. If this support continues to collapse, and the opposition continues its push, the possibility of an coup coming from within the regime diminishes as the individual fight or flight response takes over. The desire to ensure the interests of the minority Alawites in a post-Assad government would equally diminish, thus raising the possibility of protracted sectarian violence. If members of Assad’s inner circle were to make a move it would have to happen sooner rather than later. We should get a better idea of the situation on the ground over the next few days, but it is clear that Assad’s grip on the country is continuing to weaken.

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