Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
The momentum of containment against China by the US, and primarily by Japan, may be boiling over much sooner than anticipated. Containment of China beyond the East and South China Seas is short-sided. China is finally pushing back against the ever expansive Japanese assertiveness. What to do next for the US, after the breech, is where we are at right now.
China announced an air defense zone yesterday in which they claim they have a right to fly over disputed territory and that if a plane is shot down it will constitute an act of war. Perhaps their long-term concern is securing military and economic access by flooding the skies and waters as their national needs lead them to project outward for greater resource acquisition.
The PRC Ministry of Defense stated that: “It is a necessary measure in China’s exercise of self-defense rights. It has no particular target and will not affect the freedom of flight in relevant airspace.”
The scarier portion from the website was: “China will take timely measures to deal with air threats and unidentified flying objects from the sea, including identification, monitoring, control and disposition, and it hopes all relevant sides positively cooperate and jointly maintain flying safety.”
This is a warning that they will chiefly target drones and discourage military aircraft. It is effectively a self-proclaimed extension to its increasing anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) operations. A set of rules drafted by China are intended to dictate procedures of all foreign aircraft entering this zone. They have, as of Saturday, sent fighters to patrol the skies above the disputed territories. Aircraft entering this zone will not truly have the “freedom of flight” any more than a Chinese citizen as the genuine freedom of speech.
Japan has beaten China to take the seas and the islands it wants under direct possession. For now China hopes to take the high ground in the skies. The Chinese have mimicked Japan’s strong use of Coast Guard ships to patrol the disputed islands. This last week they have sent in the Coast Guard around the Senkaku Islands, which were nationalized by Japan last summer in a purchase from a private Japanese citizen. The US position is that the Japanese have administrative control but that does not necessarily mean ownership. Talk of another Sino-Japanese War between these two is not a joke. Each side is pushing the boundaries.
The new development here is that each player is making its own new rules and expecting the other to play by them. Moreover, there is no compromise or alternative to the zero-sum position. What could be bursting with alternatives is by both sides becoming a nationalistic and military display of power. The US favoritism and backing of Japan, who will takes a larger share of geopolitical power by the minute, will eventually become a third-player in the region with limiting negotiating power.
The US should work more with the UK, Australia, New Zealand and others to balance things out. Engaging China in more bilateral, rather than a multilateral setting would also be favorable; especially to a pinned nation-state.
Chinese military expenditure and technology continues to expand at an accelerating rate. They have heavily invested in stealing US stealth and drone technology. The J-20, the J-31 and now an alleged stealth combat drone called “sharp sword” all really demonstrate one thing- the effectiveness of their espionage programs against the USA. Their main obstacle which keeps them behind their rivals is not so much a factor of time as it is a lack of an innovative culture, such that the modern and developed Westernized nations possess. They are able to rob, reverse-engineer and purchase from all over the world the most modern military technology they cannot yet indigenously produce.
Japan receives weapons and security assistance from the US. Do not be surprised if North Korea starts acting up again in response to the security climate of souring Sino-Japanese relations. The DPRK is very much China’s diversionary Pit-Bull.
China wishes to be relevant. Japan thinks they have a legitimate purchase of the Senkaku/Diao Yu Islands. The battle will continue until China fills the Pacific waters with a million boats and the skies above with a million planes.