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By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent for In Homeland Security

Last week there were rumblings that the U.S. had become aware of a semi-specific threat against its embassies in the Middle East and some parts of Africa. By the time the weekend rolled around the National Security Council in the White House had concluded it would be best to shutter the embassies for few days, then ultimately decided to leave them closed for the entirety of this week. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, “given that a number of our embassies and consulates were going to be closed in accordance with local custom and practice for the bulk of the week for the Eid celebration at the end of Ramadan, and out of an abundance of caution, we’ve decided to extend the closure of several embassies and consulates.” Psaki did add that the extensions were not due to the emergence of any new threat information, however. What prompted the threat in the first place was an intercepted communication between al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the head of the al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula located in Yemen, in which Zawahiri gave “clear orders” to al-Wuhaysi to carry out an attack. Bear in mind that this information was leaked to the press by an unnamed source, but thus far the information that has made its way to the public seems scripted. In other words, the multiple media reports and quotes from the various unnamed sources are almost identical. Either the media et al is getting this information from the same source, or the leak was deliberate.

The publicity revolving around this story has garnered speculation from the political fringes that the threat was fabricated to bolster the defense of the NSA data collection programs. This claim really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. So far, the support for the NSA programs, and the dissent, hasn’t fallen on party lines. Such disunity belies an effective defense supposedly initiated by the White House. Furthermore, the intercept, if it did indeed occur as has been reported, was between two non-U.S. citizens operating in foreign nations. Collecting information from foreign sources regarding a suspected foreign attack would generally be seen as a poor defense of domestic surveillance. Naturally, the consistency in the information that was leaked to the press could be construed as worrisome since it demonstrates the U.S. ability to intercept the communications of al-Qaeda leadership, but keep in mind that the U.S. ability to do this has been known publically from some time. Furthermore, the information in the intercepted communication does not include the time, method, or location of the attack. Al-Qaeda likely understands that their communications are being intercepted and is using different methods of communication to conceal the more salient parts of their planning.

All this said it still seems odd that the U.S. would close 19 embassies on such a vague threat. It is true that little would be lost during the closure as they would be closed most of the week anyway, but with so many closed it could suggest that the U.S. believes that al-Qaeda has the assets in place, the capability to launch such a sophisticated attack, the financial means, and the weaponry needed to successfully attack such hardened targets. Quite frankly, this just doesn’t wash. Though AQAP has proven to be an adept actor, it has not shown that it has the ability to strike in many of the host nations where some of the embassies were closed. The capability of Al-Qaeda’s prime leadership in Pakistan to launch an attack outside of the AF/PAK theater is certainly questionable. It seems that there must be more to the threat than has been made public. It is possible that the embassies are using the threat and the end of Ramadan as a way to mask security reviews of the facilities, or other operational activities, but to say that this communication between al-Zawahiri and al-Wuhaysi was sufficient seems a little farfetched. If al-Qaeda does have assets ready to strike an embassy or embassies in the near future, as the U.S. government is worried that it may, then al-Qaeda will likely still have those same assets in place once the embassies reopen. The disclosure may have allowed the U.S. to put public pressure on certain host nations that have lax security and ensure that they are taking the threat seriously as well. With much of the threat originating out of Yemen this makes the concern more understandable.

Beyond the threat from al-Qaeda there are other reasons the U.S. may be concerned. Terrorists have successfully attacked U.S. embassies in the past after reliable intelligence was gathered and new security measures were put in place. A determined attacker can be marginally successful against even the most sophisticated security measures, however. Al-Qaeda’s attacks in Africa in 1998, the Hezbollah attacks on the U.S. embassy in Beirut, more recent attacks by protesters in Egypt and Yemen, and of course the recent Benghazi attack on the U.S. consulate come to mind, but there are other incidents that are worth considering. Most are familiar with the attack on the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979 as part of the Iranian revolution, but that success inspired other mob attacks in Pakistan and Libya that are not as widely remembered. As can be expected, local intelligence officers took advantage of the chaos and raided the embassies of their secret documents. Though there are mass demonstrations in the region, notably in North Africa, it is possible that al-Qaeda, or another actor, could use the chaos as coverage for their activities. Though there are many unanswered questions regarding this recent intelligence we can expect that Washington truly is acting out of an abundance of caution even if the intelligence is less than perfect.

By William Tucker

Guinea has agreed to release a shipment of military arms bound for Mali following an inspection by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The arms shipment was held up because ECOWAS was still mediating in the crisis between the Malian military and the civilian government. The transfer of power to a new unity government back in August helped clear the way for international assistance.

By William Tucker

Christopher Stevens, the U.S. Ambassador to Libya, was killed yesterday, along with three others, during an attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. Initial reports suggested that the attack was related to the protests that took place in Egypt over a film portraying the Muslim prophet Muhammad in a poor light; however eyewitness reports state that the attackers did not come from the group of protesters outside.

By William Tucker

The Yemeni military has claimed via its website that former Guantanamo inmate and deputy emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Said al-Shihri was killed in an airstrike in Yemen’s Hadramawt province. This report has not been independently confirmed and al-Shihri has been reported dead on several occasions. Few details were given about the airstrike or how al-Shihri was identified.

By William Tucker

Spanish authorities have arrested three men for allegedly planning a terrorist attack against Gibraltar or the European mainland. Unfortunately, not much information about the alleged plot has been disclosed to the press other than some information on the individuals and the areas they had visited. The names of the accused have not been officially released, however two are described as having come from Russia.

By William Tucker

Back in March 2011, I had written an article on the reported presence of al-Qaeda militants fighting against the Qaddafi regime after U.S. intelligence indicated that “flickers” of al-Qaeda were seen among the rebellion. Keeping true to form with the rest of the Arab Spring uprisings, the same concern is being expressed in regards to the situation in Syria. Unlike Libya, however, the presence of al-Qaeda is more pronounced.

By William Tucker

A suicide bomber struck a police academy in Sana’a Yemen killing eight and wounding another 15. As of this writing al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack; however AQAP has made numerous threats against the Yemeni government in response to the counterterrorism operations that have been ongoing since May. Furthermore, the tactics and target of today’s attack strongly suggest that AQAP was involved.