By William Tucker

After an extended fight with cancer, Hugo Chavez, the long-time president of Venezuela, has died. The rumors regarding Chavez’s health, where they originated, and how they impacted his governance no longer matter. Venezuela is now in the post-Chavez phase and this will bring a significant amount of uncertainty. Though vice president Nicolas Maduro – Chavez’s hand picked successor – has spent the day laying the groundwork for the announcement of the president’s death. This was done not only to help ease the impact of the announcement, but also to assist Maduro in solidifying power in the interim. It was no accident that Maduro expelled two U.S. diplomats and accused the U.S. of spreading rumors regarding Chavez’s health earlier today. Nor was it coincidental that Maduro surrounded himself with fellow Chavista’s in both the military and government. All of these events appear to have been carefully planned to show unity and to demonstrate the continued functioning of the government.

Following Maduro’s announcement, the Venezuelan military and police were deployed across the country. Venezuela does suffer from a high crime rate, but the more likely reason behind the deployment is the presence of opposition protesters who have taken to the streets over the past few weeks demanding clarification of Chavez’s condition. Now that Chavez’s death has been confirmed, the opposition will likely try to coalesce into a meaningful political force. This will be quite the challenge as the Venezuelan opposition has not exactly been the epitome of cooperation. Another issue to consider is the already chaotic state of government affairs. Caracas has been led by the wit and whim of Chavez whose personality was felt in every bureaucratic corner. If the Chavista model was chaotic before, it will likely become more disjointed in the near-term. Elections have been scheduled to take place in 30 days, but this has the potential to be a long 30 days.

From a regional standpoint, the political intrigue in Caracas may serve to inhibit the writ of the state in some of the outlying border areas. As the Colombian government battles the FARC insurgency, it is possible that the militants will delve deeper in Venezuelan territory to escape any government offensive. This time, however, they will be forced to do so without the support of Chavez. Sympathetic officers in the Venezuelan military may aid where they can, but without active support from Caracas, they will be limited in what they can do. For its part, Colombia may actively decide to pursue FARC militants into Venezuela should the political question in Caracas go unresolved for a prolonged period. Regardless of the FARC insurgency, Bogota will be watching its neighbor very closely.

In the midst of Venezuelan uncertainty, Cuba must be nervous. Cuba receives 90,000 barrels of free crude oil from Venezuela per day which supplements Cuba’s poor energy infrastructure. Cuba has a very poorly administered economy and any disruption in these oil deliveries could cause severe problems. Maduro is unlikely to stop these shipments, but should any political upheaval take place the shipments could be hindered by circumstances other than political will. Any disruption could also play havoc with international oil markets, and in the midst of the Arab spring, oil prices could easily spike. Essentially, Chavez’s death is hardly inconsequential, but it is the uncertainty surrounding Venezuela’s future that will potentially have a much larger impact.