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By John Ubaldi
Contributor, In Homeland Security

The U.S. and its coalition partners are on the verge of defeating ISIS. But the real question is after the defeat of ISIS, what’s next for Iraq?

As the combat dust begins to settle, the United States, its allies and various international organizations must come to grips with and understand the complex civil dimensions in Iraq. Right now, the U.S. faces the “failed states” of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen.

With each country, victory is a call for more than just defeating the extremist element. The United States must factor in the extreme internal turmoil of each of these countries.

US Fails to Secure the Peace

Traditionally, the United States has defined victory as just defeating the insurgents within a country. But this approach has failed to deal with the real underlying problems, such as the sharp internal divisions and the chronic failure of each country to deal with the basic economic, security and social needs of its people.

In his study, “After ISIS: Creating Strategic Stability in Iraq,” military analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that ending ISIS’s physical “caliphate” will not be the end of ISIS or the broader threat of terrorism and Islamist extremism.

Finding a stable relationship between the central government and the Kurdish regional government presents is a critical challenge. It will also be a challenge to create a stable relationship between Sunni and Shi’ite Arabs protecting other ethnic minorities.

US Will Face Massive Internal Corruption within Iraq

Even before the ISIS invasion of Iraq, the country faced massive governmental corruption and systematic sectarian and ethnic strife under former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Currently, Iraq faces sectarian and ethnic tensions from Kurdish, Sunni Arab and Shi’ite factions; these tensions have to be addressed and resolved.

Equal consideration must be given to other competing actors in the Middle East, such as Russia, Iran, Turkey and various Sunni Arab nations. All have their own self-interests, yet all are vying for influence in this volatile region of the world.

As President Trump and his national security team contemplate the way forward, they must deal with a host of issues that will complicate the next move the United States makes.

President Obama’s Failed Middle East Strategy

The decision, or lack of a decision, by President Obama in his “leading from behind” strategy in the Middle East only emboldened Iran and Russia. Obama’s failure to enforce his much-maligned “red line” brought Moscow into the region for the first time since Russia – then the Soviet Union – was forced out of the Middle East after the 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

On Monday, the State Department certified the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear agreement. This agreement, which was signed in 2015 by the United States, Iran, the U.N. Security Council, Germany and the European Union, unfroze Iranian assets and lifted some sanctions on Tehran.

This nuclear agreement gave the struggling Iranian economy, which was in dire straits, a much-needed economic boost. As a result, Tehran was able to divert economic resources to the Shia Islamist group Hezbollah, which was in financial difficulties. The money also enabled Iran to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Along with U.S. certification of JCPOA compliance, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Tehran for its persistent efforts to destabilize the Middle East. The unfortunate aspect of the new sanctions is that they leave the United States isolated from other countries. Most of the E.U., Russia and China have stated they will not go along with the U.S. and are actively courting the Islamic Republic with increased business cooperation.

With the defeat of ISIS, the United States will have to deal with strong Iranian influence in the Middle East. Tehran views Iraq as a corridor that extends through Syria into Lebanon and to Lebanon’s proxy terror organization Hezbollah. The U.S. pullout in 2011 left a power vacuum in the region, which Iran was all too eager to fill.

Iraq Needs to Take Responsibility for Its Own Future

One difficult problem is that no outside power or element can help Iraq succeed without Iraqi leaders taking responsibility for their own country and their own actions. But Iraqis can only do so much on their own. They will need additional assistance and resources to guide them to the goal of sustaining themselves without outside assistance.

There are those who believe we should just abandon Iraq and the Middle East region. But we have seen that when the U.S. steps back from its global leadership role, chaos follows and other nefarious actors fill the power void.

The United States now has difficult decisions to make after the defeat of ISIS. Only time will tell which direction the U.S. takes.