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Target Bad Russia

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

The Russian Federation’s challenge—take on the civilized world with not even half the strength of the U.S.S.R.

Moscow’s support for political assassinations in Britain and Europe, the nationalization of its industries, a complete lack of the rule of law within Russia and present abuses in Ukraine are all finally exploding to the surface. They were once held back for many years to keep a corridor of peace and kick-start further political and economic growth between Russia and the world since the 1990s. Now the truth may be the most powerful weapon against the prodigy of an “evil empire.”

Every day there seems to be some more dirty laundry and a diving Russian international image. Here are some of the present reactions to President Vladimir Putin’s criminal state:

Reinvestigation of Litvanenko in the UK. Scotland Yard has taken up the case of Alexander Litvinenko on request of the widow of the former KGB man who fell out of favor with Putin. Litvinenko became a critical dissident of the regime and direction the country was headed, defected to London and was poisoned with radioactive polonium in his tea in 2006. Traces of the unique polonium act like an invisible fingerprint that can be found in the Russian embassy, apartments of suspected killers and other places of meeting or travel of the actors involved. The case for murder has not officially been proven yet in court or public hearing. The matter was regrettably kept quiet for matters of higher diplomatic ties, intelligence and agenda. UK Home Secretary Theresa May indicated that the case would reveal the “truth” of whether Russia was behind Litveninko’s death.

As a member to the Energy Charter Treaty, Russia is subject to the rulings of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands. The Court of Arbitration has just ruled in an international tribunal regarding the hostile government actions against Yukos Oil, Inc. and its shareholders. The Court ruled that Russia pay shareholders $50 billion for intentionally overtaxing and illegally expropriated their assets 10 years ago. Naturally, the major shareholders received no compensation and the controversy of a decade centered around one of the most powerful men in Russia at that time, the largest Yukos shareholder, a Mr. Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia will be appealing the decision.

The latest EU economic sanctions target broad Russian sectors (energy, banking and defense). The previous sanctions, imposed by the 28 state unions affected only specific Russian and Ukrainian players of influence who were involved in Crimea and aiding the separatists. The sanctions are to be renewed within three months and do not include previous contracts (e.g., the French Naval helicopter carrier contract).

New U.S. economic sanctions imposed jointly with the EU, in addition to the previous sanctions also targeted the same sectors of industry. “If Russia continues on this current path, the costs on Russia will continue to grow,” President Barack Obama said, laying out a clear policy of economic squeeze.

International condemnation is encircling a villainous state. New IMINT evidence released by the U.S. government shows Russia breaching Ukrainian sovereignty with heavy artillery fire from satellite images.

Actions too slow to come out before the downing of Flight MH17 had little choice after that tragedy. Russia’s response continues to be one of strange denial and support of pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, amassing more pressure. It has decided to take on the U.S., the EU and much of the world on the air and through minor policy measures of political and economic retaliation so far. One latent fear is that this could change as they take economic measures against the EU, who have more than 10 times more trade with Russia than the U.S. and an average 50 percent or more energy dependency on Russia (i.e., oil and natural gas combined). The energy supply varies greatly with some states only 10 percent and others almost 100 percent. They have shut this pipeline advantage off before.

Both sides want to secure this pipeline in spite of the conflict as it is essential to both. But is Russia even more dependent on Europe or are they far more vulnerable right now? Or is it out of the kindness of Putin’s heart that they have not already responded with greater action against EU economic measures taken against him and his interests in Ukraine?

The likely reason for this is that they cannot afford an economic showdown with the EU, the U.S. and other players around the world. Their country cannot afford economic warfare so they fire back with minor responses because the Russian mentality is ultimately political revenge.

Moscow, dances on a dime of public record with pledged diplomatic support in de-escalating the Ukrainian conflict. Next Russia is caught red-handed in provoking it. Indirectly, they are also responsible for supporting an unstable and clumsy ally that killed 298 innocent civilians aboard Malaysia Flight MH17.

The Kiev government has not made things any easier for any political resolution or reconciliation. Its efforts at a cease-fire and political concessions have all been promises to start a process after the other side gives-up. How could that possible work that the enemy, backed by Russia, would surrender without any sure guarantees to either player? But any guarantees would look like a total defeat for Kiev, something that they might have to accept eventually, but are at present determined to decide this on the battlefield against “terrorists” rather than a right perspective of them being ethnic-Russian separatists backed by a motherland.

It is true that a large part in the nature of the Ukrainian-Russia conflict rests on foreign intervention and international pressures aimed at Moscow. The world must continue to target bad Russia and reward good Russia.

What must also be present is EU-Kiev mentorship and staying off the big guns, so to speak. National Ukrainian humiliation of separatists and Russia downing more than 16 military aircraft is a result of charging at the border of a larger army. Operational success in Ukraine are directly proportional to the political conditions, ethnicities and loyalties of the city, the proximity to the Russian border and what looks like a Moscow issuing order for conventional deterrence and denial tactics.

For now, Russia is not finished with Donetsk and Luhansk and they are ready to trade everything or endure all punishment for it.

 

 

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