AMU Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

The Making of Egypt’s Interim Government

Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

After the military deposed the democratically elected Mohamed Morsi two weeks ago, Interim President Adly Mansour is already selecting his cabinet. The position of Vice President was restored and winner of Nobel Peace Prize Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei was appointed.

The government represents what is believed to be the larger majority interests of Egypt—those of national secularism versus former President Morsi’s Islamists and their salafist allies. During his brief stay as president, Morsi separated himself from the Egyptian people, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC). He took too many political risks and the military had warned him and his Freedom and Justice Party about their tactics of concentrating too much power and neglecting the others.

The new “Tamarod” (Arabic for “Rebel”) group claimed that they obtained 22 million signatures for Morsi’s removal. This is likely an exaggeration, but still enough evidence exists to suggest a majority opposition against the Muslim Brotherhood’s political priorities and performance. Maybe Morsi had 30 percent of Egypt as hardcore followers and maybe another 20 percent were once in support of him over the secular nationalists but that has all changed with rekindled massive protests that rivaled last year’s overthrow of Mubarak.

A largely liberal cabinet of Mansour will likely address the more tangible issues of Egypt’s economic difficulties until elections can be held. Morsi had neglected these for religious undertakings. The stock market rose when Morsi was removed. Backing from the foreign states is also flooding in. Arabian states have pledges billions in grants, loans and oil.

While political targeting of the Muslim Brotherhood is intensifying, like the freezing of assets of Islamists, arrests of Islamist leadership and detention of ex-President Morsi in an undisclosed location, a new cabinet is being formed. Three women were appointed by Mansour to form a part of the 33 member cabinet.

Interestingly, Morsi’s pick for Interior Minister, Mohammed Ibrahim, remained in place. Perhaps they are making another overture that they are not engaging in a crackdown on peaceful political Islamists. After the “massacre” of military and protestors clashed on July 8, at least 42 protestors and one soldier was killed. The military claims it was self-defense to fire into the crowd and the Brotherhood cried out that it was deliberate. In any case it was excessive, so the appearance of justice must remain.

Why detain the ex-President and opposing leadership? The SCAF is likely treating the Islamist leadership as an enemy of the state and public security. If Morsi is killed he becomes a martyr and if he is released from detention, he rallies the people and forms a second government. Effectively, SCAF is taking back the any power that it gave Morsi and the Bortherhood leaders.

As before, the political faction not in power (the Islamists) are refusing to cooperate or participate at all in the political process. Interim President Mansour’s cabinet does not include one single Islamist. Protests continue from supporters of Morsi during Ramadan. Violence has been limited in the Cairo but the Sinai remains highly volatile. A large minority of the state remains in defiance and lacks representation and as before, political detentions are taking place. Calls to violence by Muslim Brotherhood members have also been numerous.

The US has gestured not to remove military funding, provided that the SCAF reignites a democratic process, uphold the peace, increases representation and hold elections. The US refuses to take sides in the on-going revolutionary power struggle but wants elections sooner rather than later.

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