By Dr. Stephen Schwalbe
Program Director, Political Science at American Public University
On December 28, 2011, Kim, Jong-Un became the third Supreme Leader in North Korea’s dynastic succession of Kim’s, starting with Kim, Il-Sung in 1948. At 30 years old, he became the world’s youngest leader of a country. Being relatively new to the position, Kim needed to prove himself to the domestic stakeholders within North Korea (such as the military) and to foreign powers including South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.).
To do this quickly he started an international crisis where Kim, Jong-Un could emerge as a strong leader, able to stand up to world powers. The crisis began on December 12, 2012, with the launch of a three-stage intercontinental missile allegedly to put an artificial satellite into orbit to commemorate the 100th anniversary of Kim, Il-Sung’s birthday. Following the launch, the North Korean National Defense Commission made the following proclamation to the world: “We do not hide that we will launch a series of satellites and long-range rockets and carry out nuclear tests in the next higher level new phase of the struggle against the United States, the sworn enemy of the Korean people.”
On March 7, 2013, North Korea threatened the U.S. with a “pre-emptive nuclear attack.” The next day, the North Korean government announced that it was withdrawing from all non-aggression pacts with South Korea; that it was closing all the joint border crossings with South Korea; and that it was also cutting off the hotline to South Korea.
On March 20, 2013, the North Korean government sponsored a massive cyberattack against South Korea. This was followed ten days later by a declaration of war by North Korea against South Korea. Media analysts then noted that it was unusual for the North to be at war with the South while the Kaesong Joint Industrial Region was still operating normally. By April 3, 2013, North Korea closed entry to the Kaesong Joint Industrial Region to the South Koreans. To conclude the crisis, North Korea launched six short-range, guided missiles within three days in June into the Sea of Japan.
With the manufactured crisis concluded, a sense of normalcy coon returned. By early July, the hotline was restored and the Kaesong Industrial Region was reopened.
We have seen this display of brinksmanship by North Korea all too often, beginning with Kim, Il-Sung, then his son Kim, Chong-Il, and now Kim, Jong-Un. The specific events are just a variation of the same theme.
North Korean leadership can be likened to petulant child behavior. The normal attributes of petulance include querulous, ungracious, capricious ill-humor, and a bad temper. It seems whenever North Korea needs world attention or humanitarian aid, it starts a crisis that it hopes will end with free food and/or energy deliveries from the West.
China is North Korea’s sole benefactor, providing food and oil to keep the Kim regime in power. North Korea serves as a pawn for China to play in international affairs as needed. For example, if there were issues in Taiwan, China could counter international involvement with provocations by North Korea. As well, China is not interested in having a unified Korea, which would likely be a democratic country with strong ties to the U.S.
It is essential that the North Korean dynastic leadership continually prove itself to its domestic stakeholders to sustain its legitimacy. With the continued backing of China, North Korea has the capability to create an international crisis whenever needed. As such, we have witnessed only the beginning of North Korean-initiated crises under Kim, Jong-Il.
About the Author:
Dr. Schwalbe, Program Director of Political Science at American Public University, retired from the Air Force in 2007 as a colonel after 30 years of active duty service. He has a Bachelor of Science degree from the Air Force Academy; a Master’s degree in Public Administration from Golden Gate University; a Master’s degree from the Naval Postgraduate School; a Master’s degree from the Naval War College; and, a PhD from Auburn University in Public Policy.
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