AMU Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

The Wider Jihadist World War

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

There is a much wider jihadist world war being raged outside the major flashpoints in Syria and Iraq by the enemy. Coordination an overall strategy against jihadist terrorism is required of a greater international counter-terrorism effort then presently, that uses more: information, diplomacy, intelligence and law enforcement programs in areas of instability. Jihadists threaten political control or significant areas of: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Somalia or Libya too.

It is important to recognize the larger goals and similar political ideological connection of international jihadists and to target all of them strategically as well as individually. Nigeria still accounts for over 10 percent of all global terrorism and Afghanistan and Pakistan combined still account for around 52 percent. Jihadists everywhere are increasingly combining religious coups and separatist agendas over the last several years, taking advantage of weak or failing states with large Muslim populations or driving an extremist wedge to create them over time. While their physical grip may be local, their aspirations and threats are transnational with wider repercussions. It is important that while the enemy is fighting a world war, the West does not get too focused on a fragmented or regional one.

The Global Terrorist Index Report is a comprehensive global study of terrorism covering direct and indirect impact of terrorism in 162 states. The following figures are taken based on that report.

The study found a high correlation between instability, illegitimacy and lack of intergroup cohesion with terrorist incidents. Meanwhile, the economic indicators such as economic growth or poverty “do not correlate” with terrorism; nor did violence. Any robust counter-terrorism attempts must therefore be directly political and targeting these political mega-themes for the greatest impact. All non-political instruments of state should be used as supplemental to these ends.

The Taliban, Boko Haram, ISIL and al Qaeda accounted for 66 percent of all claimed terrorist attacks. Possibly they make up around 100,000 active fighters , according to estimates. They are the fighters of a wider extremist reactionary jihadist revolutionary movement. In just two years, ISIL went from a group of thousands of fighters to tens of thousands. These numbers are preliminary and ranks are expected to swell as they continue to appeal to the fundamentalist, the forced recruits, the politically marginalized, the discontent, the uneducated and the thrill seeker.

More than 90 percent of terrorism occurs in countries that have gross human rights violations.

Since 2000, 90 percent of all suicide terrorist attacks took place in Middle Eastern and North African Countries and South Asia.

In 2013, there were 17,958 people were killed by terrorism. The report notes that while terrorism is on the rise, the victim count is far less than casualties from homicide. In 2012, around 437,000 people were victims of homicide worldwide. One is therefore 40 times more likely to be killed by a homicide than a terrorist attack. In the U.S. alone, there is a 64 percent chance of being killed by homicide than terrorism.

The concern about terrorism is more than the body count and brutality. Terrorism is that it is about using a tactic to overthrow regimes and install a government through violent or threat of violent coercion—and in the jihadist variant, the mass murder of random civilians as well as targets that increase publicity and propagate their extremist message. The big threat of jihadist terrorism, then, is political control and extremist theocratic manipulation. International jihadist threats in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia in particular have never been more real a threat to obstructing or reversing the civilization process and human rights.

America has spent $4-$6 trillion dollars to date in funding its counter-terrorism policy in Iraq and Afghanistan operations alone. Terrorism has increased. Clearly, if America had just focused on targeting Afghanistan and al Qaeda, the entire global situation would most likely have been more positive and in less peril. In fact, terrorist incidents have risen from 1,500 in 2,000 to 10,000 in 2013, according to the Global Terrorist Index. The greatest jump was witnessed from 2012 to 2013 but incidents more than doubled after 2011.

Even if one removes the U.S. from the equation of causation, jihadist terrorism still would be predicted to have risen on its own. If America’s absence or lack of appropriate force against al Qaeda before 9/11 was the reason for al Qaeda rapid successful rise, then surely it makes no difference if America does more now to challenge them militarily or less now to challenge them militarily, as empirically, they are increasing in spite of direct force or because of it. One might rule out that American military force in Afghanistan and Iraq alone did not increase terrorism but no one rules out that America certainly failed to stop it politically.

The prevention and defense countering terrorist attacks directed against the American homeland and Europe has been superior while the spread of al Qaeda ideology in the form of international jihadist was a dismal failure on part of the West. Homeland defense might also account for intelligence sharing networks with allies and geographical barriers alone as well. One thing is sure: the State Department was incapable of countering jihadist ideology through all tried efforts—traditional, public diplomacy and all other educational and cultural exchanges. Not only did jihadists gain more recruits, more sympathizers, more political influence into key places but they also carried out more successful localized attacks. A large part of this can also be blamed on the local governments in those regions as well.

The costs of continuing the war on terrorism is high and the commitment will have to be higher. Money continues to be spent on last-resort military operations rather than preventive activities. The West must learn to put their heads together and use their minds to think and jump ahead of the enemy rather than let the enemy make the next move(s).

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