AMU Homeland Security Opinion

Who Will Rule Afghanistan After Karzai?

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is on his way out after what will be 14 years. Karzai, who was appointed by the national assembly his first term and ran twice on his own, is barred by the constitution to run again. He is expected to step down in the electoral process.

A new nationwide presidential election is in the works for April 5, 2014; but unfortunately it is far from democratic. With no incumbent, the elections are a free-for-all.

There are eleven candidates and a voter turnout at 12 million, or a little more than a third of the Afghan people. Although the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan is determined to rule out voter fraud, the worry is still in the air; and amidst weak controls and covering large remote areas over weeks of expected tallies.

Some have already begun selling their voter cards. “When people buy and sell voter cards for the cost of lunch, it means that Afghan democracy is for sale,” said Azizullah Ludin, chairman of the Afghan election watchdog in 2009. Females do not carry photo IDs, due to cultural norms and remain the easiest to cheat the system with.

Afghani women have the most to lose if a democratic transition falls through either at elections are soon after. Even now, female officials are being directly targeted for assassination and intimidation by Taliban insurgents and on the other side, they are beginning to feel legislation against them and the loss of their rights.

There still remains an unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement with the Americans. Part of the reason for Karzai’s hesitancy to sign a US long-term security agreement is the immunity from protection of American troops from Afghani prosecution. This is the main issue as Karzai continues to face a home base that want to try foreign soldiers for accidental collateral damage.

Another of the more recent motivations, along the same note, is potentially related to Karzai’s secret peace talks held with the Taliban in Dubai, three weeks ago; according to Matthew Rosenberg at the New York Times. The Taliban have claimed that the presence of foreign troops and civilian deaths from collateral damage is fueling the insurgency even more. Ironically, at least 90 percent of civilian deaths are caused by the Taliban.

Previous attempts at peace with the Taliban were unsuccessfully led by the US last June in Qatar. Karzai was one of the biggest dissenters, no doubt disliking playing the second seat and not being consulted to his liking. Yet the US pressure to obtain an all-around peace with the Taliban is still on the table for Washington.

Nevertheless, Karzai has officially stated that the US can leave if it wants, he is not signing the current agreement; in spite of the fact that his own troops are requesting the agreement with Washington and that he helped negotiate it for the last two years.

The April elections add fuel to the fire. In the lineup of the eleven presidential candidates are ex-Islamist Warlords, former Mujahedin, ex-Jihadists, ethnic rivals, opium kingpins in the midst of assassinations, terrorism and Taliban peace talks.

Polls from the Asia Foundation taken in 2012 showed that a large and substantial minority (about 30 percent) favor anti-government groups and over 80 percent favor reconciliation with the Taliban and armed insurgents to end hostilities.

Even if the Taliban and other anti-government insurgents do not take over outright, foreign states continue to put massive amounts of money into sustaining the country’s security and economy (presently at 90 percent of its GDP); even if poverty can be addressed, opium levels which are rising (75 percent of the global heroin market) can be tackled or if massive graft dealt with, it still leaves the gradual gains of extreme Islamist goals carried out to undermine democracy through the present and future elected officials as well as the political system.

Who will rule? In many ways it does not matter who gets elected; it does matter what actions Karzai or the future leader and NATO will agree to take or be allowed to take by 2015. Decisive action is required far more than elections.

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