By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
According to U.S. officials, it has now been confirmed that Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine has been shot down by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). So far, satellite imagery was not able to determine who shot down the Boeing 777. Analysts are still trying to determine where the shot was fired from, when the plane was hit and most importantly who fired it.
All parties have denied responsibility for the crash and the 298 civilian deaths. According to the airline’s senior VP, 47 of the passenger’s nationalities are yet to be identified, but sources state that there may have been 23 American citizens on board.
Russian rebels in Ukraine remain the key suspects so far. Reports stressed that there were no Russians aboard MH17.
It is still possible that the Ukrainian government shot the commercial airliner down by mistake, like they did during a 2001 defense exercise. During the exercise, two missiles were fired at a drone off the Black Sea coast and one S-200 missile struck the jetliner heading to Novosibirsk at 35,000 feet.
A leading separatist, Andrei Pugin, said that he only had anti-aircraft missiles with a range of 4,000 meters (well below 30,000 feet). Each side blames the other directly or indirectly. They deny having the Russian Buk anti-aircraft missile launchers have a range of 72,000 feet. Beech anti-aircraft weapons are also a possibility.
The Ukrainian government immediately claimed the rebels were responsible and then wanted to conduct an impartial investigation. Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko, bitter about Russian aid to the separatists wrote on his Facebook page, “There is no limit to the cynicism of Putin and his terrorists!”
In his speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin regarded this as a tragedy and blamed the Ukraine as the state that “bears responsibility.” Then, like Gerashchenko, Putin asked that everyone be “objective” in the matter and obtaining more information.
Military aircraft such Ukrainian AN-26 transport on Monday and a SU-25 fighter on Wednesday have been shot down by Russians over eastern Ukraine. The AN-26 was taken out with a 9K5 Strela-10 air defense missile system from the Russian border. The SU-25 was taken out by a Russian fighter in Ukrainian airspace (according to allegations of the Ukrainian government). Such is a potential act of war, if confirmed. Russia has denied this.
Still, Russia’s ‘volunteers’ near and along the border have been trying to limit the air advantage of Ukrainian forces against the separatists and potentially create a no-fly zone in the near future, if they step up their aerial denial activities. Control of the skies will be crucial for whatever forces control the cities on the ground.
The contested airspace is increasingly unsafe. Unfortunately, there are still many civilian planes charting through those areas over disputed territory. Russia and Canada had already restricted flights through eastern Ukraine as well.
Diverting flight paths are universally reported after this incident. Major commercial airliners will try to avoid eastern Ukraine, even though that is the usual flight path from Europe to Asia.
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