By Dr. Patricia Campbell
Assistant Provost at American Public University System
Everyone in Tanzania is talking about it and almost all agree they want change; however, the question is what does change mean, or more specifically, what should change look like?
The progress of democratization in Africa since independence has been slow and has occurred across the continent in fits and starts. Some countries, Botswana for example, have enjoyed long standing stable democracies, while others have never left the starting gate, Guinea for example. The vast majority of countries have vacillated from dictatorship to democracy and back again repeatedly, Nigeria being a notable example. Even in countries that have relatively stable governments with elements of democracy, such as Kenya, violence is not uncommon. Much like Kenya, Tanzania is rated as a “hybrid regime” (Defined as: Elections have substantial irregularities that often prevent them from being both free and fair. Government pressure on opposition parties and candidates may be common. Serious weaknesses are more prevalent than in flawed democracies–in political culture, functioning of government and political participation.
Corruption tends to be widespread and the rule of law is weak. Civil society is weak. Typically there is harassment of and pressure on journalists, and the judiciary is not independent) and is ranked at 86th or of 167 countries by the Economist Intelligence Unit (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2014, 38 and 15). In this context, Tanzania is poised to have its next election. On a recent visit there, I asked several folks what they thought was the best thing about living in Tanzania. Their responses were remarkably uniform: “Compared to other African countries, we are peaceful.” Tanzanians are proud that they have thus far been able to avoid the kind of violence that is so prevalent not only across the continent but also in their neighboring countries (e.g., Rwanda, Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Burundi). This is particularly notable given that Tanzania is one of the poorest countries on the continent and contains g more than 120 ethnic groups. However, on October 25, Tanzania will hold its most closely contested election since its independence and while violence is not expected, the possibility that smoldering tensions could upend Tanzania’s stability remains.
Historical Context:
Under the leadership of Julius Nyerere and the Tanganyika African National Union (TANU), Tanganika gained its independence from Britain in 1961 and joined with the island of Zanzibar in 1964 to form the nation-state of modern Tanzania. In 1977, Nyerere formed the Chama cha Mapinduzi-CCM Revolutionary Party (CCM). The party has dominated the political landscape ever since. Nyerere eschewed the oft used tribal/ethnic alliance strategy for political dominance and instead promoted unity among Tanzanians by declaring Kiswahili the official language and by pursuing a strategy of “Ujamaa” or African Socialism that deemphasized urban-centered industrial growth and instead focused development efforts in rural areas. The balance sheet for Tanzania now looks something like this: economically Nyerere’s efforts at African Socialism and later to open the economy have not produced sufficient growth; they have instead allowed a system of over bureaucratization and corruption. It is not uncommon, for example, for cars to be routinely stopped by local police and drivers shaken down for money in order to avoid a heavy penalty for some real or imagined traffic violation. Politically, the CCM, lead directly by Nyerere until 1990, achieved stability, but at the cost of human rights violations; however, these were moderate by comparison with Tanzania’s neighbors and with the continent in general. Elections have been marred by some irregularities, but in general have been found to be open, free, and fair. They have been open to parties aside from the CCM only since 1994.
Critical Issues:
The upcoming elections represent the closest political contest yet in Tanzania. While few are predicting the CCM may lose its first ever election, it a distinct possibility. “Change” is the dominant theme across the country, perhaps driven by the economic success of neighbors such as Uganda (growth of 5.9 percent from 2014-2015), Rwanda (7 percent in 2014), and Mozambique (7.6 percent in 2014). Each of these countries has been heralded by international investors as thriving economies worthy of external investment dollars. Whereas Tanzania did see growth at 7.3 percent in 2013, the growth has been uneven with rural areas experiencing little growth (All growth figures from the African Development Bank ) and international investors are not focused on Tanzania in the same way they have their sights set on her neighbors. There are several critical questions facing Tanzania as elections draw near: why can’t Tanzania turn its political stability into sustained economic growth that brings down extremely high poverty rates and creates jobs for the millions of unemployed and underemployed? How can the long standing patterns of corruption be overcome? What political/constitutional reforms will be forthcoming that can address the regional disparities, including the increased calls for independence by Zanzibar, which in the past has led to violet clashes?
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