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By Stephen Schwalbe, Ph.D.
Faculty Member, Public Administration, American Military University
Over the past month, there has been increased discussion about a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War. That war began in June 1950 when North Korean troops invaded South Korea.
The fighting stopped in July 1953 with a ceasefire, officially referred to as an armistice. Since then, the U.S. has maintained military forces in South Korea as a precaution and a deterrent.
North Korea has over 1 million ground forces stationed within 60 miles of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates North and South Korea. It also has 8,500 field artillery pieces hidden in the hills overlooking the South Korean capital of Seoul. This weaponry is ready to rain down conventional and chemical weapons shells on the capital at a moment’s notice in an attack that would last for several hours.
In fact, North Korea has initiated military attacks against South Korea numerous times since the 1950s. North Korea sank a South Korean ship in 2002 and another in 2010; it also fired artillery rounds into South Korean territory multiple times in 2010.
It seems that conflict in Korea could resume at any time. That is the main reason why U.S. forces remain stationed there.
North Korea Wants Military Exercises Cancelled, but Has Developed Nuclear Weapons
The U.S. not only has military forces permanently stationed in South Korea, but those forces conduct annual joint exercises with South Korea to hone combat skills and demonstrate military capability to North Korea and other nations in the region.
These major command post and field training military exercises include Ulchi Freedom Guardian, Foal Eagle and Key Resolve. Pyongyang perceives these annual exercises as military preparations for an attack on North Korea and has repeatedly demanded that they be cancelled.
The Kim regime believes that having its own arsenal of nuclear weapons will guarantee its survival and deter any attacks from the U.S. As a result, North Korea has doggedly pursued the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, especially in the past 12 years.
North Korea Has Conducted Bomb Tests since 2006
In October 2006, for example, North Korea detonated its first atomic bomb. Two years later, the Kim regime refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into the country to inspect its nuclear weapons facilities.
In May 2009, North Korea detonated its second atomic bomb and detonated a third bomb in February 2013. In January 2016 and September 2017, North Korea successfully detonated two hydrogen bombs.
In 2017, North Korea successfully launched three intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching any location in the United States. What North Korea has not perfected and tested is the deployment of a nuclear warhead on its ICBMs. To do this will require further ballistic missile test launches.
At the February 2018 Singapore summit between U.S. President Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, Trump announced a halt to the joint military exercises. In return, it is assumed that Kim promised not to conduct any further nuclear weapons or ballistic missile launches. So far, this informal arrangement has been honored by both sides.
South Korea Attempting to Improve Economic Relations with North Korea
Meanwhile, over the past year, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been pursuing better relations with North Korea, allegedly to improve its economic relations with Pyongyang. In a recent speech, Moon cited research from a state-run organization that found inter-Korean economic cooperation could be worth upwards of $150 billion over the next 30 years.
Both Koreas have made clear their desire for a final peace treaty. Moon has promised to declare a formal end to the war by the end of this year, perhaps during his next trip to the North, whenever that takes place.
There is nothing to stop the two Koreas from declaring an end to the war and signing a bilateral peace treaty. However, the Korean War Armistice was signed by Army Lieutenant General William K. Harrison Jr. representing the United States and General Nam Il, representing both North Korea and China.
South Korea is not a signatory to this armistice. Consequently, a formal peace treaty to officially end the Korean War must be arranged by the United States, North Korea and China.
However, with Trump’s unilateral declaration to end joint military exercises with South Korea, the U.S. has limited leverage to entice Kim to abandon his nuclear weapons program – a program North Korea has spent so much money and resources to develop.
The U.S. does have two forms of leverage. One is the multinational economic sanctions imposed on North Korea for its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests. But with covert Chinese economic support, these international sanctions are not likely to have the desired effect. They have not had that effect in the past.
The second form of leverage is the proposed peace treaty. The North Korean state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun said, “the adoption of a war-end declaration is a task that brooks no further delay. Its adoption is of weighty significance in ensuring the peace and security of the Korean peninsula and the world, to say nothing of the confidence-building between (North Korea) and the U.S. and the improvement of their relations.”
Some American media sources might think that the U.S. should pursue such a treaty to improve relations and to build trust with North Korea. But National Security Advisor John Bolton wants to leverage this treaty with a full accounting of North Korea’s nuclear assets. Both of these positions are short-sighted and counter-productive.
Today, no one questions the 35,000 U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force personnel stationed in South Korea. Once a Korean War peace treaty is in place, North Korea and China will likely ask why are these military forces still needed in South Korea?
Internet operatives in China and North Korea will likely sow discontent among South Korea’s youth, who might begin protesting the U.S. military presence in their country. It is also possible a Korean politician could be elected on a platform of removing U.S. military forces from South Korea.
Removing US Troops from Korea Would Not Be Wise
Just as the U.S. withdrew its military forces from the Philippines in 1992 at the request of the Philippine government, the U.S. might do the same in South Korea. However, this would not be in our best interests or of northeast Asian security. The departure of U.S. military forces would leave South Korea (geographically the size of Indiana) and Japan (the size of California) at the mercy of China (the size of the United States).
A peace treaty involving the U.S., China and North Korea should only be contemplated once it has been officially determined that North Korea is denuclearized – meaning no nuclear weapons or any facilities related to nuclear weapons production. This is unlikely to happen in the near future. U.S. forces should remain in South Korea even if a formal peace treaty is concluded, just as we’ve had a military presence in Germany and Japan since the end of World War II.
About the Author
Dr. Stephen Schwalbe is an associate professor at American Military University. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia College. Stephen received a Ph.D. in Public Administration and Public Policy from Auburn University in 2006. He served as a Defense Attache in Seoul, South Korea, from 1995 to 1997.
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