By Dr. Stephen Schwalbe
Faculty Member, Public Administration at American Public University
Since the end of 2015, North Korea rolled out a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the KN-14, in a military parade in Pyongyang and conducted its fifth nuclear weapons test. North Korea also successfully launched a 200-kilogram satellite into orbit using a long-range rocket; unveiled a mock-up of a miniaturized nuclear warhead; performed an atmosphere warhead reentry test; and test-fired a large, solid-fuel rocket motor (needed for a road-mobile ICBM).
It appears that North Korea seeks an intercontinental ICBM with nuclear capability.
All of this activity would track with North Korea’s recent propaganda. For example, on March 25, 2016, North Korea posted a YouTube video called “Last Chance,” which depicted a nuclear missile attack on Washington, DC. Despite numerous United Nations and U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing, it seems that North Korea is undeterred in its quest to create a nuclear ICBM force.
U.S. Believes North Korea Poses Nuclear Threat
Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, told reporters during a recent Pentagon briefing that the U.S. intelligence community assessed that North Korea has the capability to place nuclear weapons on its KN-08 road-mobile ICBM. He declared, “Our assessment is that they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland.”
The KN-08 was first made public in 2012 and appears similar to the Soviet-made SS-N-18 submarine-launched ballistic missile. The first stage could employ a cluster of four Scud rocket engines. Main and steering engines would power the second stage, while the third stage would only have a steering engine. The missile would have a range of up to 5,600 miles with a warhead weighing up to 1,500 pounds.
The ground-launched KN-14 is a bit shorter than the KN-08, and it has an estimated range of more than 6,000 miles with a similar warhead. According to Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, “From the far northern corner of North Korea, [such] a range is sufficient for the KN-14 potentially to reach Chicago and Toronto.”
Both the KN-08 and the KN-14 have not been flight-tested yet. But defense officials said that both systems have been tested in all other aspects — except actual flight. According to an Arms Control Association (ACA) report, ballistic missiles must actually be flight-tested to validate both reliability and performance.
A proper flight test program would likely take at least two years. As it is now, ACA estimates that North Korea could test-launch both the KN-08 and KN-14 before 2020.
Robust Defense System Makes North Korean Missiles Unlikely to Reach U.S. Targets
While this North Korean missile activity might frighten some people, the U.S. has been working on ballistic missile defense for decades now. We have ballistic missile defenses in place today to defend ourselves from a possible North Korean ICBM threat.
President George W. Bush ordered the development of an anti-ballistic missile system that consists of a complex web of layered defense systems. The U.S. deployed defense systems to engage ballistic missiles in each phase of flight, to include a missile’s pre-boost, mid-course and terminal phases. The mid-course defense systems are the ones designed to intercept ICBMs.
The Ground-Based Mid-course Defense (GMD) system consists of 30 interceptor missiles and high-tech radar systems to track both an incoming ICBM and guide the interceptor missiles. The radar systems and missiles are located at both Vandenberg AFB on the California coast and Fort Greeley, Alaska. They are oriented towards ballistic missile launches from Asia, specifically from North Korea.
This missile defense system has been successfully tested several times and is now fully operational. When an interceptor missile leaves the Earth’s atmosphere, it releases an infrared-seeking projectile called a “kill vehicle” that would collide with the ICBM over the Pacific at a very high speed, effectively destroying it. Congress periodically approves additional interceptor missiles, granting approval for 14 more interceptor missiles in 2017.
To engage ballistic missiles in their terminal phase of flight, the U.S. Army developed and deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system. It is designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase of flight using a hit-to-kill approach – much like the mid-course interceptor missiles.
THAAD has already been deployed in Guam, and now South Korea has decided to deploy it on the Korean Peninsula. Of course, this decision has greatly upset China, which sees THAAD as a threat.
Other Actions – or Inaction – May Prove Necessary
Given all of this strategic force activity in North Korea, perhaps the U.S. should consider other options other than economic sanctions. The U.N. and U.S. could employ a total economic sanction against North Korea, much as we effectively did against Iran.
Essentially, the U.S. would sever all economic relations with North Korea. However, this would adversely affect banks in China, which is still one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners.
The U.S. could wait until North Korea has its nuclear ICBM force in a decade or less to see if North Korean leaders would actually use any of their missiles. Given the unpredictability of North Korean leadership over the years and especially now, this may not be a risk any country affected is willing to take.
The U.S. could wait to see if our missile defenses work effectively, but that inactivity may be more like Russian roulette. Eventually, one or more ICBMs may get through U.S. defenses and detonate on the Korean Peninsula, Japan, or the U.S. West Coast. The pressing question would then become: “Why didn’t we take out these weapon systems when we had the chance – like our preventive attack against Iraq in 2003?” There is no good answer to this question.
So that leaves the U.S. with the military option. The U.S. with approval and assistance from South Korea and Japan, could surgically attack North Korea in a preventive strike. The missile and air strikes would need to take out the ICBM force, any nuclear weapons and weapon manufacturing sites, as well as decapitate the North Korea leadership in quick succession.
The big risk is that this military action would trigger a conventional war on the Korean Peninsula. However, South Korea is more than militarily capable of defeating North Korean military forces. But, the defeat would likely come at a heavy price for South Korea.
About the Author
Dr. Stephen Schwalbe is an associate professor at American Public University. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia College and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Stephen received a Ph.D. in Public Administration and Public Policy from Auburn University in 2006. His book about military base closures was published in 2009.
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