AMU Asia Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

North Korea’s Heated Rhetoric

By William Tucker

The commonly bizarre behavior of North Korea has been on full display in recent days as Pyongyang made multiple threats in response to a new round of UN sanctions. These sanctions were unanimously approved by the UN Security Council following last month’s test of a nuclear device. Indeed, North Korea has been testing and demonstrating its military advances as of late. As we’ve stated here at IHS in previous articles, North Korea’s behavior may seem bizarre, but it serves an important purpose for the regime’s internal and external political pursuits. Much of this recent activity can be related to Kim Jong-un’s continuing efforts to consolidate power by reorienting the regime back to the type of bureaucratic balance his grandfather, Kim il-Sung, had first put into place. In order to do this, however, Kim must re-empower the party while assuaging the military elite. Though not unprecedented, the North’s response to these new sanctions has been quite aggressive in rhetoric. With this response to international will, Pyongyang’s actions over the next few months bear careful scrutiny for both international reasons and to get a sense of Kim’s balancing act.

For many observers, the mere fact that these threats were issued so closely together is quite concerning, although there seems to be a consensus that war between the two Korea’s is still remote. Consensus is hardly sufficient evidence on which to pin policy, however. While aggressive rhetoric is hardly an immediate segue to war, it is still possible that North Korea may up the ante with more concrete action. Such past issues such as the sinking of the Chon-An, the shelling of disputed islands, or perhaps clandestine activity such as the past submarine incursions may all serve as a template for future action from the North. Pyongyang is a master of escalation and deescalation and carefully chooses its actions based on numerous risk factors. That being said,with a young Kim trying to rebalance North Korean power politics by engaging in such heated rhetoric and military provocations the possibility of miscalculation remains high. This may not lead to a full on war, but limited military engagements are certainly a possibility to consider. Eventually, the North will return to some sort of negotiations once they feel their actions have caused sufficient regional stress.

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