By William Tucker
The mass protests that have occurred across Syria are now 5 months old and neither the loosely affiliated opposition, nor the regime, has shown any signs of relenting. In fact, neither side has made any real progress one way or another. Understandably, this has made several regional powers rather nervous. Iran, a long time ally of the current regime, has much to lose if the regime weakens. Tehran has been looking to solidify its influence in the Levant and without a friendly government in Damascus this would become difficult, if not impossible. Other regional players, most notably Turkey and Saudi Arabia, will be trying to shape the Syrian crisis for their own ends.
Coverage of the Syrian crisis has been steady, and focus on regional implications has naturally fallen on Iran. As previously stated, Iran does indeed have a lot to lose if the crisis drags on, or worse, the regime somehow falls. Saudi Arabia on the other hand would stand to benefit either way. Indeed, the Saudi’s would prefer to have a government in Damascus that was friendly toward Saudi interests, but failing that, chaos is a decent alternative. The Saudi’s see the Syrian situation as one that could challenge Iran’s attempt to spread its influence regionally, and as such, will support any disruptive activity. After Syrian protests failed to materialize in February, they somehow managed to catch fire in March. Saudi Arabia has long been in contact with Syrian opposition movements and it is conceivable, although speculative, that Riyadh played a hand in sparking the current revolt.
By itself, Saudi Arabia will have a difficult time in countering Iranian influence. Although the Saudi’s have money and modern military equipment they are not cut out for directly intervening beyond their small Gulf State neighbors. Turkey on the other hand, while not happy with the crisis on its door step, is better equipped to deal with it. Turkey’s view of Syria is a bit more complicated than that of Saudi Arabia. Syria directly borders Turkey and has a significant Kurdish minority. Ankara views the government of Syria as a check on the separatist ambitions of the regions Kurdish population. Turkey’s fear is that any transition in the Syrian government, even one that was Sunni dominated, would undo this check.
Although the outcome of the Syrian unrest is anything but certain, Turkey is well positioned to handle the crisis. This doesn’t mean it will be easy, however. The available options to resolve the situation diplomatically are not the best and Ankara may have to use other elements of national power to handle the situation. How Turkey ultimately deals with Syria will have regional repercussions in the coming years, especially in the midst of the Saudi-Iranian struggle. Turkey is already a regional power, but if handled correctly, this is the type of situation that could catapult the country to regional hegemony.
Comments are closed.