AMU Europe Homeland Security Intelligence Legislation Opinion

Russia Comes Out On Top in Minsk Talks

By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent, In Homeland Security

After 17 hours of negotiations between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, a cease-fire agreement affecting the Ukrainian conflict was reached Thursday.

The cease-fire is scheduled for one minute after midnight Sunday, March 15, 2015; however there is no guarantee that the cease-fire will actually occur. The last cease-fire, crafted in September of last year, never really took hold—and with many of the same provisions present in the current cease-fire—there is a very real chance of failure.

Germany’s Chancellor Merkel and France’s President Hollande acknowledged that there is much work to be done despite the agreement. Indeed, the cease-fire details specific actions regarding combat in eastern Ukraine, such as removing heavy artillery, but the belligerents are still in the area and the political turmoil underlying the conflict isn’t any closer to being resolved.

Further damaging to Ukraine is the provision that calls for constitutional changes that would accommodate the separatist regions politically. Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, stated that this doesn’t equate to autonomy, but it is a key Russian demand and its inclusion in the agreement is likely to keep the conflict unresolved. In essence, Ukraine has already lost territory to Russia and is now being forced to concede more political sway to Russia over territory within Ukrainian borders. How Kiev will deal with this is unknown, but demanding that a nation relinquish territory because of foreign aggression is not something that should be taken lightly.

Not only does Russia gain more political influence in Ukraine, it also may see some sanctions relief. If the cease-fire is implemented and takes hold, then it is conceivable that the European Union may not renew the sanctions on Moscow.Russia Ukraine Cease-Fire

In addition to declining oil revenue, the Western-imposed sanctions on Russia have impacted the Russian economy, and though the EU may want to lift the sanctions, there is no guarantee that the U.S. will follow suit. Currently, the sanctions question is up in the air but that could change when they are up for renewal Feb. 16. If it so desires, Moscow could extensively push the issue next week when the decision is announced.

The EU is still dealing with a financial crisis, and the change of government in Greece has put further pressure on Germany to resolve the economic problems that have plagued Europe for the last seven years. Ending negotiations with Russia over Ukraine is something that Berlin and Paris would welcome—even if it means an imperfect solution.

Russia may have come out on top in this most recent round of negotiations, but it isn’t immune from international economic woes or even instability beyond its near abroad. With this in mind, it makes sense that the heads of state of these respective nations found it necessary to attend to talks in Minsk. Even though the cease-fire is less than ideal, a total breakdown in negotiations could potentially be much worse.

For now, the situation on the ground in Ukraine is paramount. If the cease-fire fails to gain traction in implementation, then a wider deterioration of the conflict may come into play.

Comments are closed.