AMU Homeland Security Intelligence Middle East Opinion

Syrian President Likely Ordered Attack on U.S. Embassy

By William Tucker

The U.S. and French Embassies, including staff, were attacked earlier today shortly after state controlled media ran a rather inflammatory article. Both the U.S. and French ambassadors had recently visited the city of Hama – a hotbed of regime dissenters – as a way to convey the displeasure both nations have with the strong handed crackdown on anti-regime protests. According to reports the U.S. embassy area was primarily vandalized (i.e. Broken windows, graffiti, etc.) before the security contingent of U.S. Marines pushed the crowd back. Reports on the French attack are mixed at present and the attack may be ongoing. Syrian security forces that are responsible for external embassy security were late to arrive and appeared ineffective in handling the situation.

Both attacks today appeared to be coordinated and backed by the Syrian regime. While the U.S. and French ambassadors did visit the anti-regime protests in Hama, it was likely done with the approval of the regime. The Syrians were well aware of the U.S. position regarding the ongoing crackdown and the purpose behind the visit was unlikely to have been a surprise. When the request came in for the regional visit the Syrians probably viewed it as an opportunity to continue the propagation that outside forces are involved in the anti-regime protests. This would explain the inflammatory news article on the ambassadors visit and the slow security response to the protesters outside the embassy.

Embassies are a symbolic target of protests worldwide, but there are times when protests are used as cover by the host nations. This happened in the Middle East when the U.S. Embassies in Iran, Pakistan and Libya were struck in 1979. In each instance the U.S. lost a significant amount of classified material to plain clothes regime operatives that blended in with the protesters. In the Libyan case the embassy siege and removal of classified material was witnessed by neighboring embassies and some staff that had watched from an adjacent alleyway. In this recent case involving Syria it is likely that the regime was wanting to send a message and nothing more. A similar incident involving the Turkish embassy occurred in early June shortly the Turkish Prime Minister condemned the ongoing violence against the nationwide protest.

As the anti-regime protests drag on across Syria it is important to keep an eye on the regime itself. Actions such as those taken today can be used as a good way to take the regimes temperature. The more frequent the crises; the more dire the regime sees the situation. For the most part the Syrian regime is holding together along with the vast majority of the military. The problem comes when the military is operating at a high operational tempo for a prolonged period. The anti-regime protests are showing no sign of slowing, but then again the regime is holding together. This standoff cannot last indefinitely and the regime is certainly starting to worry about foreign intervention.

20110711-125506.jpg

Comments are closed.