By William Tucker
The Syrian conflict has been anything but linear. With a fragmented opposition lacking a formal command and control structure coordinating forces fighting against an entrenched regime backed by Iran and Hezbollah it is hard to imagine that the war would be linear. This is a greater problem for the rebels than it is for the government as the opposition is forced to use creative methods to acquire supplies. Though the rebels have received arms and humanitarian supplies from interested nation-states, it still must be moved into the country clandestinely in most cases. Further strangling the opposition supply lines is the unwillingness of many world powers to supply weapons to such a fragmented force for fear they may wind up in the wrong hands. Regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, have been forced to dismiss such cautious policy in an attempt to counter Iran’s regional influence. Earlier today the New York Times ran a story covering the influx of Croatian weapons into Syria allegedly by Saudi Arabia. Those monitoring the weapons used by the opposition have noted weapons from the former Yugoslavia showing up in Syria previously, however the recent scale of arms transfers appears to have increased.
On the humanitarian side, the U.S. recently pledged 60 million dollars to the Syrian opposition – the first time Washington has publically made such a pledge to the rebels. This announcement comes as the opposition has taken measures to more effectively govern the areas under its control. As the opposition makes gains, it must demonstrate an ability to govern and any foreign assistance it can get will be helpful in that regard. Foreign aid is vital across the spectrum of warfare and governance for such an opposition movement, and though it won’t immediately shift the balance of power in Syria, it will help the rebels solidify their holdings. On the other side of the coin would be taking measures to stifle Assad’s international support. Sanctions may indeed be in place, but nations such as Iran and Russia don’t seem interested in playing along. If this changes, the balance could shift more decidedly in the favor of the opposition, thus making the current pledges of foreign aid more meaningful.
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