By Dr. Ilan Fuchs
Faculty Member, Legal Studies

The turmoil that is Israeli politics does not stop. Israel is heading yet again toward another election cycle, its fourth in two years.

The political instability in Israel has become systemic and makes the country’s future extremely vague. The combination of the legal foundation of the Israeli political system coupled with the controversial political personality of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is leading Israel to a political dead end.

The fourth election was declared this week after the coalition government in Israel failed to pass the budget for 2021-2022. But before we get to the end of this short-lived government, it is necessary to understand why the current government is being replaced.

Why the Current Government Is Being Replaced

On May 17, 2020, Netanyahu and his political rival Benjamin Gantz established the current Israeli government.  At the base of the coalition was a rotation agreement that mandated that Netanyahu would serve as Prime Minister until the end of 2021. After that, Gantz would be his replacement. 

This agreement angered many of Gantz’s political allies. The main point of their election campaign was “Rak Lo Bibi!,” which translates to “Anyone, just not Bibi!” Because of the inherent distrust of Netanyahu, the coalition agreement included a stipulation that if the parliamentary budget did not pass, there would be another election.

In recent months, it was clear that passing the budget was going to be difficult. Gantz had a hard time convincing his fellow Kachol-Lavan (Blue-White) party members — who ran with him on the platform that it was necessary to replace Netanyahu — that they should vote for the budget.

When it came time to vote this week, it seemed at the beginning of the week that there would be a slim majority for the budget. But on the actual night of the vote, three parliament members from Gantz’s party did not show up to vote.

Those missing Kachol-Lavan parliament members were joined by two other parliament members from Netanyahu’s party, the Likud. The Likud parliament members decided to leave their and form a new party with Gideon Sa’ar, a long-time Likud member and rival of Netanyahu who had resigned a week earlier from the parliament.

Israeli Politics Has Many Variables

There are so many variables in Israeli politics that it is extremely difficult to forecast how the chips will fall at the end of Israel’s election cycle. In a recent article, The New York Times attempted to make some sense of the situation, but simply summarized, “This is an important election to Israel.”

After the last three election cycles, this new election cycle may prove as futile as the rest and therefore unimportant. But once again, Israel is heading for an election that is focused on the identity of the leader, not ideology and policy.

What will change in this election cycle? At this point, it seems Gantz has lost most of his political credit with his supporters. His agreement with Netanyahu and the failure to sustain the government paint him as a political novice who has been fooled by Netanyahu.

There is a chance Kachol-Lavan will disintegrate and its members will not even run for reelection. Some of its members are defecting to other parties, and some might retire after this short political fiasco.

On the right, Gideon Sa’ar wants to make a bid for the Prime Minister’s position. Several Kenesset members have joined him, leaving Likud and Kachol-Lavan.

There is also another right-wing party, Yamina. Yamina’s leader, Naftali Bennett — an American-raised religious Jew — is also eyeing the role of Prime Minister. Avigdor Liberman, a right-wing politician who represents Russian speaking Israelis, has called for the creation of a united right-wing bloc that will run together with the aim of replacing Netanyahu.

On the Israeli political left, this election cycle might signal the disappearance of the Zionist left or the rejuvenation of the Labor movement with outside forces. The Israeli Labor party has been shrinking consistently since the collapse of the peace process with the Palestinians in 2000, a process it spearheaded. It also created a 20-year deadlock with hundreds of casualties.

Kachol-Lavan’s Disintegration May Bring Israeli Voters Back to the Labor Party

Polls in recent months showed the Labor movement was heading towards disappearing. While that might still be the case, the recent week might have brought with it a ray of hope.   

The disintegration of Kachol-Lavan, the party that siphoned off most of the traditional Labor voters, might bring many of them back to Labor. Several leaders, mainly Avi Nissenkorn — the Minister overseeing the legal and judiciary affairs and the former leader of the biggest union in Israel — might join the party as its leader, revitalizing the party.

Another Israeli politician, Ofer Shelah, may also play a role in the new election cycle. Shelah, a founder of Yesh Atid, another political party in the “just not Bibi” bloc, announced that he will leave the party since there is a need to reintroduce new ideas and ideologies to the Israeli political scene beyond just the slogan that Netanyahu needs to be replaced. Shelah might join the Labor movement in an effort to revitalize it as an ideological force.

Difficulty in Establishing Coalitions

Election polls in Israel should be taken with more than a pinch of salt. Recent polls show that at this point, the next election will continue the deadlock from the past two years.

While Netanyahu will have a very difficult time establishing a coalition, his rivals — mainly Gideon Sa’ar — will also find building a coalition extremely difficult. Sa’ar will need support from both the right and the left, parties who have nothing in common beyond their contempt for Netanyahu.

Will Netanyahu Run Again?

Perhaps the real question is: Will Netanyahu make a choice to not run again for reelection? That would be a real game changer.

I recently wrote that Netanyahu is a symbol for both his supporters and his rivals. Netanyahu’s political personality makes him an arch enemy or miracle worker who can do no wrong to many people.

If Netanyahu decides not to run again for Prime Minister, that decision alone will reshuffle the entire political discourse in Israel. Such a move, however, will obviously be connected to the future of the criminal allegation laid against Netanyahu and the possible dismissal of those allegations in exchange for a resignation. What is certain is that the next months will continue to bring with them more political turmoil and material for many more articles.