By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
It has been one year since Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down on a bridge near Red Square in Moscow. The anniversary led to many protests in cities across Russia and seemed to amplify growing discontent with the overall state of Russian affairs. Becoming a victim of assassination is an occupational hazard for politicians and businessmen in Russia and though Nemtsov was no different the timing of his death was, and still is, rather curious. There was another notable event that occurred on the anniversary of Nemtsov’s death that provides a hint as to why Nemtsov was killed when he was. Ramzan Kadyrov, the longtime leader of Chechnya, gave an interview on February 27 in which he announced his plans to retire at the end of his current term in April.
Kadyrov is often considered a flamboyant joker, a strongman, despot, etc., but it’s important to note that his rule in Chechnya has been rather stable owing largely to his ruthlessness. At the end of the second Chechen war Moscow had made the Kadyrov clan the ruling party in Grozny, but placed the Yamadayev clan, a ultra-nationalist Chechen family like the Kadyrov’s, over two battalions in the Chechen military. In that time Ramzan Kadyrov has killed many of his rivals to consolidate his hold on power and remove any threat even if they were placed by Moscow. Considering how ruthless Putin can be its remarkable that Kadyrov hasn’t been eliminated himself.
The main reason that Kadyrov survives and thrives as he does is that there really isn’t anyone capable of replacing him. The Chechen wars killed a large number of Russian soldiers and were a drain on the state. The stability that has ensued in Kadyrov’s rule would be difficult for Moscow to upend and Kadyrov knows this. Indeed, in one of the more brazen assassinations carried out by the Chechen strongman, Kadyrov had Ruslan Yamadayev, a chief rival to Kadyrov, killed in front of the Russian White House while en route to meet with Dmitri Medvedev. Only one month before the assassination and during the Russian invasion of Georgia had Yamadayev and his clan been praised for their fighting in the war while Kadyrov and his military been told to stay home. Kadyrov took the slight personally and the killing of Yamadayev in such a sensitive place was the Chechen President making his displeasure known.
In the last few months Kadyrov, a Chechen ultra-nationalist, has been making many public statements that would suggest that he is faming himself as a Russian ultra-nationalist. He has done this by making claims that anyone who opposes Putin is a traitor to Russia along with other statements showing a strong kinship with Russia, but seeming undying loyalty to Putin himself – something that would’ve been unheard of ten years ago. Interestingly enough, Kadyrov started making these statements as details of the investigation into the Nemtsov assassination were leaked. Indeed, Suleiman Geremeev, a cousin to Kadyrov and a member of the President’s inner circle has been implicated in Nemtsov’s death.
When Nemtsov was killed suspicion immediately fell upon Putin as he has been accused of ordering assassinations of Russian oligarchs and journalists that challenge his power base, but the timing of Nemtsov’s death didn’t make sense. Putin is still highly popular even in the midst of a severe economic downturn and killing a rival that didn’t pose much of a threat could be viewed as unnecessarily risky. If the hit was ordered by Kadyrov in an attempt to embarrass Putin, then the timing makes a bit more sense. Just before Nemtsov’s death Kremlin insiders were once again discussing the need to replace Kadyrov and the Nemtsov assassination may have been the Chechen President’s way of demonstrating his abilities to eliminate those who threaten his position.
This begs the question, why would Kadyrov claim to want to retire one year to the day of the Nemtsov assassination? It may be that Kadyrov reminding the Kremlin that without him at the helm in Grozny that Chechen stability isn’t a foregone conclusion. Furthermore, by making such a statement on such a notorious anniversary, and in the midst of economic turmoil that is really starting to bite the average Russian, not to mention the military commitment in Ukraine and Syria, Kadyrov is using the timing to put pressure on Moscow to back off. Though he claims he will retire soon, he is likely playing a game many despots do by recanting his claim in the coming weeks due to popular demand that he stay on the job. Though much of this is speculation the timing is just too coincidental. What is certain, however, is that Kadyrov is playing a dangerous game, but he may also be holding all the cards.