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By William Tucker

In December 2011, I wrote an article on the influence of Cuba and Iran in Venezuela. Although Iran has some interests in using Venezuela to increase its footprint in Latin America, it is Cuba that has staked much of its economic welfare, indeed even its political fortunes, to the Chavez regime. In the time since that article was posted, Chavez’s health is still uncertain – despite his claims to be cancer free, a claim he has made before – and his challenger in the current presidential election is fairing far better than the Chavista’s have anticipated. If Cuba has invested so much of its miniscule economic wellbeing in the Chavez regime, then it would stand to reason that the powers that be in Havana should be getting quite nervous given the political uncertainly in Caracas. If Cuban president Raul Castro’s recent trip abroad is any indicator of the island’s health, then it stands to reason that the situation in Cuba may be worse than anticipated.

Two weeks ago Raul Castro undertook an international trip where he visited Vietnam, China, and Russia in an attempt to secure broader economic cooperation with these nations. China was the only nation to make a pledge of economic support; however Beijing is already heavily invested in the region and would not offer Havana any support that would raise the ire of the U.S. Regardless, Cuba’s economic problems cannot be solved by low level economic cooperation. Further complicating matters is Cuban law which levies a high toll on direct foreign investment. Naturally, this could be changed legislatively; however Havana has not done so although it is obvious that economic liberalization is desperately needed. That being said, Cuba has made attempts to modernize its economy. These attempts have been unevenly implemented and appear disjointed at best as the island doesn’t have any recent experience in these matters. Havana has been ruled by the Castro clan since the 1950’s and the bureaucratic support and experience needed for such sweeping changes is, quite frankly, nonexistent among the governing elite.

Further signs of problems in Havana stem from recent crackdowns on political dissidents. Indeed, crackdowns on political dissidents is nothing new in Cuba, but the suspicious death of a internationally known activist, Oswaldo Paya in this case, can bring unwanted international attention. Paya was recently killed in a car accident, and there are allegations that the vehicle was forced from the road. Two survivors, a Swede and a Spaniard, have yet to give their accounts of the incident to the press, but the accusations have proven enough to gain Washington’s attention. Several European nations do have economic concerns in Cuba – Spain’s Repsol oil company just gave up on oil exploration in Cuba – and the injury of two activists can strain ties with these investor nations.

All told, the situation in Cuba appears to be deteriorating and the attempts at reform have been clumsy. It is against this backdrop that political activists in Cuba are becoming bolder in challenging the government. This isn’t to say that a popular uprising is in the offing anytime soon, but with the events in Libya and Syria where strong-arm regimes have been shown to be weaker than previously assumed it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Furthermore, the Castro brothers are in their eighties and a viable successor hasn’t been publically embraced, although there are a few names being discussed. There are still a number of Cuban’s who are invested in the current regime, although the numbers of staunch loyalists is uncertain. This is a situation where regime collapse, or a popular uprising must be considered. Recognizing that Cuba is vital to U.S. national security, it is certainly time for Washington to assess the situation in Cuba and prepare for the possibility of a political transition if it hasn’t done so already.

By William Tucker

In 2006, a professor at National Autonomous University of Mexico claims he was recruited by officials from the Cuban Embassy in Mexico to lead a group of hackers to attack the U.S. Instead of following through, the professor recruited a few students to infiltrate the hacking group to better understand how they operate.