Tag

Damascus

Browsing

By William Tucker

A few days ago I posted an article on the impending battle for control of Aleppo. Fighting is fierce and contradicting reports are streaming from both the Assad regime and opposition forces. Perhaps equally interesting is opposition advances in other key parts of Syria. Since the fighting in Aleppo began, the rebels have made significant gains in portions of the country that could potentially trap a large portion of Assad’s forces in the north. My words from a few days ago are worth repeating, “Keep in mind that opposition forces may withdraw from Aleppo, but that shouldn’t be construed as a defeat for the rebel movements. Rather, it would be a sign that the opposition is continuing to engage regime forces only in battles that can be won. With the Assad regime on the back foot time is favoring the opposition. Each successful strike increases the doubt of the regime loyalists about the viability of the current government and may induce them to defect. For now, the opposition seems content to set the time and place of each engagement with the regime. Aleppo may be a turning point, but it is also likely that the opposition is simply distracting the regime while preparing an assault elsewhere.”

Since the opposition assault on Damascus, fighting around the city has been quite minimal. In response to the clearing of Damascus and the rebel advance on Aleppo, the Syrian regime has pulled forces from several areas of the country to reinforce military units participating in the counterattack on Aleppo. This may indicate that the Syrian military is no longer capable of fighting on multiple fronts. After numerous defections and constant fighting for over a year, the Syrian military appears to be in horrible shape despite retaining artillery and air capabilities. If this is indeed the case, the opposition could use its advances in cities such as Homs and Hama to cut regime access to the M5 highway. Doing this could severely hamper the north/south movements of Assad’s mechanized forces, thus trapping a significant portion of the Syrian military in the north. Such a move could leave Damascus vulnerable. For a rebellion that is intent on toppling the Syrian government, the fighting around the seat of government in the nation’s capital is rather quiet. Although Aleppo is certainly a prize worthy of opposition blood, a war of attrition in the city doesn’t benefit the rebels. The fighting in the city and elsewhere does reveal, however, that the rebels are capable of thinking strategically and another assault on Damascus is not out of the question. Fighting in Syria is certain to drag on for months longer, but the short term viability of Assad’s forces is in doubt.

Aside: In addition to severing regime access to the M5, opposition forces will likely try to cut command and control of regime forces. Cutting regime forces in two geographically is one thing, but preventing them from communicating across that split is another matter entirely. Additionally, opposition movements indicate that this rag tag military movement has a reliable communications apparatus, thus allowing for more effective troop movements. Although many field commanders of the opposition forces came from the Syrian military, it is possible that someone is supplementing their communication abilities. It is telling that the Assad regime hasn’t been able to effectively disrupt opposition communications.

By William Tucker

To start, it is important to note that the claims by opposition forces and the al-Assad regime concerning the fighting in Damascus cannot be verified; however we cannot ignore that fighting is indeed taking place. That by itself is a significant development in the Syrian saga. In the past few days and weeks, several high level defections have taken place raising the prospect of a ‘palace coup.’