Tag

pakistan

Browsing

Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

History in the making. An arms race has been brewing between Saudi Arabia and Iran for some time but a growing proxy war between the two countries is taking place in Syria and heir feud will likely spread to other states as well; chiefly, Iraq, Kuwait and the Gulf become de facto buffer zones.

With the US leaving a power vacuum in their wake from Central Asia, Saudi Arabia and Iran are increasingly heading on a deadly path for state-to-state regional dominance, balancing and a potential added ingredient of sectarian jihad. Each state will compete for the true leadership role of Islam.

Recent events are stirring the pot between the two. Saudi Arabia is moving East and Iran is moving West.

The Saudi Kingdom was not happy with the US retreating from supporting the Egyptian military against the political Islamist Muslim Brotherhood or what they see as the US failure to launch an attack against the Iranian supported regime in Syria. Iran was not impressed with a seat on the UN Security Council- a former national objective of theirs.

Saudi Arabia is through with waiting for the West in the region and are taking the initiative in Syria as well as in more serious matters- going their own way. This is their message: ‘Are you with us or Iran?’

The latest news is getting even worse- the Saudis are planning to receive “nuclear weapons” from Pakistan (a fellow Sunni Muslim state) to counter Iran (the Shia Muslim state and rival). This has by Pakistan, who of course wants no qualms with Iran. Any such deal between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will remain secret or denied, naturally.

The reasoning out of Riyadh is simple: ‘If no one will stop Iran from eventually having the indigenous capability to produce nukes through gradual Uranium enrichment, then we must acquire our nuclear deterrent, any way we that we can.’ Israel feels the same way and is also the strongest vocal opponent of Iranian nuclear ambitions- just over a year ago advocating a preventive military strike with the US against Iranian nuclear and suspected nuclear targets.

Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that his country would “do everything … to ensure that even the perception that Iran has anything but peaceful intentions for its nuclear program will be removed, because we believe that even the perception that Iran pursues a nuclear weapons program is not only wrong, but dangerous.”

Neither the West, Israel nor Saudi Arabia share any confidence in this effort so far. The trick will be to pacify the Saudis against making any unilateral rash moves- many that have already begun in infancy- and at the same time keep the Iranians at the table.

The Saudis have been in a position to have nuclear weapons transferred from Pakistan for a while now; exchanging information with AQ Khan or giving large sums of money to the Pakistani defense sector, for example. The “news” is not so much new, as it is a warning to Iran and Western ease of economic sanctions and further alignment with Iran.

Since 2009, King Abdullah claimed that he would obtain nuclear weapons if Iran crashed a threshold. There are several undisclosed MRBM sites that where conventional yields might be replaced with nuclear warheads from Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the US is trying to hold the whole thing together in the balance. In Geneva, Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) are spearheading the negotiation process with Iran. They are expected to work out a phased approach to lifting some sanctions for Iranian nuclear cooperation. It has been suggested by officials that for maybe one year the Iranians would suspend its nuclear program. It is uncertain if the Iranians would agree to this.

The Iranians are very serious about reaching a deal and lifting critical economic sanctions. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told his people that they should not interfere with the nuclear talks or criticize them. This was directed at the small faction of hardliners that have visibly confronted the new President Hassan Rouhani and the Foreign Ministry’s moderated stance with the West. To appease the hardliners like out-going President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Ayatollah stressed that Israel was “an illegitimate, bastard regime.” Even the Supreme Leaders has to play politics.

US Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to race to meet with Saudi Arabian rulers this week to try and mend US-Saudi relations as best as possible after the fallout of a long but awkward partnership. If the US wants to become more effective as a lead negotiator role for the world, it will need a total commitment along those lines of international relations and foreign affairs. It has much ado about restructure and overhaul into a world class foreign ministry that befits a superpower. So far the Us has been getting lucky through an eager willingess to talk and not make war. But it needs to increase its power of conversation and revolutionize the tools of statesmanship.

Nuclear proliferation will become even more of a problem for Israel if Saudi Arabia pushes the bubble as well. If the Iran and the Saudis do get nuclear weapons it will be a survival issue indeed and if the two states ever realized there was a Jew in the neighborhood, one might slip out the back and annihilate the entire state; let alone wreak havoc across Europe and the world in the hands of the most extremists. But that reasoning has not panned out for Pakistan, who hates Israel just as much as Iran and Saudi Arabia. There are more al Qaeda and an equal amount of fundamentalists in Pakistan and there have amazingly been zero incidents.

While not an ideal scenario, it may be realistically impossible to stop Iran or Saudi Arabia with their established channels for nuclear weapons acquisition. Even a conventional military strike or a clandestine one that shut down computers (all tried) do not seem to be enough to stop the momentum here. In other words, they will both soon most likely, if not already, have the capability but not necessarily the stores of nuclear missiles on hand and aimed at each other. Interestingly, they have all chosen a somewhat clandestine nuclear program very similar to Israel’s example- but only the most powerful states in the region have been able to get away with it. This would mean that they keep them very quite once obtained- very different from the loud Islamic bomb echoing New Deli from Pakistan in the 1990s.

One thing is for certain, with the likely increase in nuclear weapons of various kinds, the US and the world will need better defenses to keep up; better technology to deal with them in the future. Iran and Saudi Arabia are not the only ones to worry about. And even more important than North Korea is Pakistan.

Detection and sensors spread all over the US might one day be possible but real-time threat neutralization of a CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) incident with the US could become a homeland defense goal- even if it seems impossible now, or decades from now.

By William Tucker

Two days after India concluded its “Iron Fist” military exercise near the city of Jaisalmer, Indian police announced they had arrested a Pakistani spy living in the region where the exercises took place. Following a tip, authorities raided the home of the alleged spy and found “strategically important documents” along with a collection of cell phones.

By William Tucker

The BBC is reporting that several militants have launched an attack on the Minhas air base at Kamra using small arms. Reports from other outlets have stated that the militants are wearing military uniforms and are equipped with suicide vests. This information is difficult to verify as the attack is ongoing. Pakistan has reinforced the military presence at the base to fend off the assault.

By William Tucker

An al-Qaeda operative that has been tied to the 9/11 and Mumbai attacks has been captured in by Pakistani Authorities. The operative, Naamen Meziche, has been living in Iran, but was captured in Pakistan shortly after entering the country. Meziche has been involved in several plots and somehow managed to move around Germany although he was known to German authorities.

By William Tucker

Typically I prefer to wait for confirmation from both U.S. and al-Qaeda sources before discussing the reported death of a leader. Although most news outlets reporting on this story are quoting one unnamed individual, word just came from the White House they believe Abu Yahya was killed in a recent U.S. drone strike. The drone strike in question occurred early Monday morning in North Waziristan.

By William Tucker

It has been quite some time that I have addressed Pakistani politics, but with the current intrigue following “Memogate” it might be time to access the situation. In 2007, I called into question the wisdom behind the U.S., and other Western powers, pushing for then President Musharraf to remove his military uniform and rule as a civilian. Shortly thereafter, Benazir Bhutto, and several other Pakistani politicians returned from exile.

By William Tucker

Paksitani intelligence officers are claiming that Pakistani Taliban commander Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a recent drone strike near Miramshah. Mehsud has been reported dead by the Pakistanis so many times that he should win a prize, but strangely this report is a bit different (For those keeping score at home this is the fourteenth time Mehsud has been reported dead by the author’s count).