Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
The war that Bashar al-Assad and his government started, beginning as a tightening crackdown amidst growing resistance over two and half years has decimated the country, causing $100 billion dollars in loss of production, not including the over 100,000 deaths, and six million without homes and the much damaged buildings and infrastructure.
The government now claims they have reached a stalemate. That sounds like Russian talk but Deputy Prime Minister of Syria, Qadri Jamil, told the Guardian Friday that if Russia and the US could get the rebels to meet with them, they would pursue “an end to external intervention, a ceasefire and the launching of a peaceful political process in a way that the Syrian people can enjoy self-determination without outside intervention and in a democratic way.”
Mr. Jamil also said, “Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side. This zero balance of forces will not change for a while.”
The chemical weapons released, likely by both parties on occasion, but critically by the regime in last resort are a further sign of desperation. This comes at a time that in the Northern city of Azaz, Syria, various rebels and an al Qaeda affiliate have made a symbolic truce. Syria has pledged to give up and allow destruction of all chemical weapons, beginning with the provision of a starter inventory list of assets associated with them. Most likely, they got the go ahead from their Russian “chess” advisers. But just because it is strategic does not mean it is not in the US interest, or that a mutual interest cannot be bargained.
The appeal to the international community for the Syrian government will be one of bargaining for safety from internal reprisals and charges of war crimes by the international criminal court, no doubt. But the devil is in the details. They clearly are war fatigued.
The US might permit the Assad regime the luxury of life in Russian political asylum, while at the same time offer Russia their piece of Syria, while the international community moves in to repair Syria and makes it accountable to the people. Ultimately, that would mean a strongly Muslim Brotherhood presence, along with other radicals and constant al Qaeda attack. If Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and others are included into the mix, there is a great potential for a win-win result.
The difficulty will be signing an agree that allows a compromise of protection for political rulers, nationwide elections, inclusion of all foreign powers that have money and foreign forces sponsorship; resettlement and return of the internally displaced and migrated Syrians; and security against international jihadists- Syrians would have to convince them that their services are no longer required.
Easy, right?
This decade of challenges and reconstruction may still be better for everyone and the region in comparison with the alternative of a weak Syrian government on the brink, trigger happy or a near anarchy in the aftermath.
It’s too early to tale if diplomacy will win out. The rebels are teaming up and they have to make their play soon. As the Syrian regime, while it speaks in desperation, appears weaker in the minds of their enemies internally. They know that if the West does supply them with weapons, they are finished. Expect some potential Syrian rebel trigger event to take place before or near such negotiations. It could be a large-scale terrorist attack, guerrilla attack or maybe an assassination. The main thing is that the enemy has to prove it is strong as Assad bargains for peace announcing a stalemate. The enemy will want the upper hand at the negotiation table and to appear stronger but the more extremist will not sue for any kind of peace and continue to upset the peace talks altogether.
This is where the IC and Russia, China and Iran must act soon to stop international jihadists, secure the truce with the rebel leadership and Syrian, bring in the international troops (mostly regional militaries with UN-NATO support mission) and UN relief teams enter in and secure the area. All of these are in the Syrian proposal. They have even listed democratic elections. All of this can take place in a phase-out plan simultaneously with the chemical weapons removal programs.
After the regime officials disappear and the ledgers of previous official bureaucrats are burned and destroyed, there could be a whole new era of governance, democratic elections, human rights monitors and charities present and opening up the country to commerce again through a long-term frame-work. It is an optimistic account but it only needs to be in the interest of a majority of powers at play in Syria to accomplish such a miracle for it to spark a cascade of miracles.
An important consideration for the skilled negotiators is that just because Syria wants to stop the war and knows they cannot win, does not mean they are willing to give up everything to get it. They will fight to death but if they see an opening to leave with their lives, they’ll take it, so long as it appears better than the condition they are in now.