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Somalia

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By William Tucker

In an interesting and underreported development, troops under the command of the African Union have moved to the outskirts of Afgoye. The city of Afgoye is just a few miles outside of the capital Mogadishu and has been under al-Shabaab control for years. If al-Shabaab loses control of Afgoye the militant group will likely lose access to much of south Somalia. As Kenyan troops have moved up the coast from Kismayo and Ethiopian troops, or affiliate militias, have come from the west taking the cities of Baidoa and Beledweyne. This arc will divide Somalia and force al-Shabaab to operate from less hospitable terrain in the north. Regional governments in Puntland and Somaliland have taken small measures against al-Shabaab as the groups command structure was looking to relocate.

Since the most recent invasion by regional forces, al-Shabaab has fought using light infantry tactics, some forms of guerilla warfare, and terrorism. Neither method has born much in the way of results as the invading forces have continued to make headway. As al-Shabaab continues to lose ground they will likely become more reliant on unconventional methods of warfare such as terrorism. Though the militant group has repeatedly shown the capability to strike at targets in Mogadishu, they have not shown a consistent ability to strike internationally. Beyond the suicide bombing in Kampala and the spate of grenade attacks in Kenya, which may be unrelated to al-Shabaab, international terrorism seems to be out of reach. Then again, such a move towards international terrorism has been rather controversial among al-Shabaab leadership. This could easily change if the group deems it necessary. All this said, keep in mind that al-Shabaab and its predecessor organizations have survived foreign incursions before. This fight is far from over.

By William Tucker

Naval forces of the EU have followed up on an earlier policy change that allowed them to attack ground based assets belonging to Somali pirates. The raid took place near the Somali city of Haradhere and focused mainly on destroying fast attack craft and other pirate assets in the immediate area. According to reports, the raid was carried out by helicopter transports from two nearby naval vessels.

By William Tucker

“If you look at last year, 30 ships and up to 700 hostages were held – today that is eight [ships] and around 200 [hostages].” – Rear Admiral Duncan Potts, the operation commander for the EU Naval Force in Somalia

In an aggressive change of tactics, the EU has approved its counter-piracy contingent in the Indian Ocean to engage Somali pirates on land.

By William Tucker

Geopolitically speaking, there are certain areas around the globe that are prone to conflict. While it is true that conflict of any kind is ongoing, there is a short list of competing nation-state actors that gather more attention than other conflict prone areas. The reason being is that these competitions that are under wider scrutiny have a habit of turning into something more catastrophic.

By William Tucker

The Somali militant group al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a car bombing at the Hotel Muna in Mogadishu on Wednesday. Local officials told the media that 15 people were killed in the blast and further 20 were wounded. Hotel Muna is popular with Somali politicians and was the target of another attack in 2010.

By William Tucker

When Kenyan forces invaded southern Somalia several months ago, the stated goal was to create a buffer to prevent al-Shabaab’s forces from launching attacks against Nairobi. Al-Shabaab, however, continues to threaten Kenya. In one statement an al-Shabaab spokesman threatened to knock down skyscrapers in Nairobi. Al-Shabaab does have the capability to carry out attacks beyond Somalia, but the scale would be much smaller than toppling large buildings.

By William Tucker

Two months ago, Kenyan forces invaded southern Somalia with the ostensive purpose of creating a buffer region between al-Shabaab and the Kenyan border. The Kenyan military has thus far not stated how far into Somalia they will go, but it is widely expected that they are intent on attacking the port city of Kismayo.

By William Tucker

Two explosions occurred during a meeting of al-Shabaab leadership in the town of Afgoye. Afgoye is about 20 miles from the capital of Mogadishu and remains under al-Shabaab control despite the militant groups withdrawal from the capital a few months ago. Local residents claim that some rather expensive vehicles were present around a well known compound used by al-Shabaab prior to the explosions.