By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
At the end of April, I delivered a short lecture on societal collapse and state failure. I commented that Turkey was shifting from single-party rule to single-person rule. Though I suggested China was exploring a similar path, it was the mention of Turkey that most attendees found provocative.
Anti-Democratic Politics on the Rise in Turkey
Turkey is a democracy. But since the Adelet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP, or Justice and Development Party) came to power, this social conservative political party has eroded the threat of opposition from other political parties and the ever-present Kemalist military.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan targeted the military quite aggressively when he ascended to the presidency and while he served as Prime Minister. The military stepped in and seized control of the government four times since the founding of the modern Turkish republic, but President Erdogan and the AKP have successfully rolled back the scale of the military’s influence in state affairs.
Recent Coup Attempt Fails
This past Friday, the Turkish military made another attempt to seize power from the elected government. This coup failed shortly after it started.
The failure was remarkable, because unarmed citizens pulled armed soldiers from armored vehicles. These unarmed citizens heeded the president’s call to take to the streets and protest the incipient coup attempt.
As the military shut down communications, leaders allowed the president to speak publicly via CNN Turk through Apple’s FaceTime video conferencing. The military moved on most media outlets, but it seems they forgot to secure this important and influential media venue. Soldiers tried to rectify that misstep, but it was ultimately too late. The coup had failed.
The failure of the coup was rather ridiculous. Military leaders allegedly involved in plotting the coup mobilized military assets across the country, but were unable to capture the president. President Erdogan was on vacation near the Sea of Marmara, but no military commanders thought that Erdogan might be important enough to detain or eliminate.
Furthermore, soldiers allowed themselves to be subdued by unarmed civilians knowing their fate if they surrendered.
President Erdogan Claims He Was Unaware of Approaching Coup
Nothing in the coup’s planning made much sense from a tactical standpoint. The most baffling aspect of this weekend’s excitement was President Erdogan’s claim that he had no clue a coup was in the offing because military secrecy was absolute.
By Monday morning, the president and his loyalists had arrested 9,000 people allegedly involved in the coup. It’s amazing that Erdogan was clueless about the coup, but he managed to find 9,000 co-conspirators in a matter of hours.
International Media and Leaders React to Coup Attempt
International media raised loud questions about these accounts of the coup in the wake of its failure, viewing Turkey as a failed state or societal collapse. Turkey isn’t in danger of either scenario, but it is going through a profound political transition.
Turkey holds an important position in global affairs because it has one of the world’s largest economies and has close proximity to Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Ankara is frequently under a microscope, which explains why many world leaders, including the U.S., didn’t condemn the coup right away. Not only did they have to contend with a democratically elected leader engaging in despotic activities, but they now had to contend with the Turkish military promising a return to democratic principles through non-democratic means.
The coup attempt was a problem that has long-term and profound complications. No world leader wanted to back either position until it became clear who the winner would be. In this case, the coup fizzled out quickly. Delay in condemnation was minimal, but noticeable.
Turkey’s Future Security and Stability Uncertain
Turkey now faces a severe problem of stability. Military leadership has been decimated over the past 14 years. The purging of one-third of the military leadership this weekend will set back the security situation for the foreseeable future.
Turkey is fighting numerous domestic enemies of Kurdish separatists and communist guerillas, but also faces two failed states on its southern border. Both the military and national police were dramatically harmed in the course of this coup.
It’s highly likely that the security situation in Turkey will deteriorate in 2017. The coup attempt may be over, but the deterioration of the security and economic situations will only grow worse in the coming year.