By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent for In Homeland Security
The Afghan Taliban has confirmed that their leader Mullah Omar, the Leader of the Faithful, has died.
This statement comes on the heels of the claim by the Afghan government that the reclusive leader of the Taliban had died two years previously in a Karachi hospital. Though the Afghan Taliban didn’t elaborate on the circumstances or the date of their leader’s death they did manage to name a successor – Mullah Mansour. The naming of Mansour to the top job wasn’t without its share of controversy, however, as many senior leaders are opposed to Mansour’s desire to continue peace talks with the Afghan government. 
Peace talks between the two parties are on hold for the moment, but with such strong opposition from senior leadership, they may never take place. Indeed, a split in the movement is not beyond the realm of possibility and such a split would impact al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network as well. Siraq Haqqani was named as Mansour’s deputy by the Shura council, yet the Haqqani network has long operated semi-independently of the main Taliban movement despite its pledge of loyalty.
In the past few years, the main concern regarding violent jihad has revolved around the rise and rapid expansion of the Islamic State. Explanations for this involve the marginalization of al-Qaeda and the seemingly endless Syrian civil war. Furthermore, Iranian involvement throughout the Levant only served to fuel the growth of Sunni jihadists in the region, thus pulling the flow of foreign fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan (and media attention) away from the decades-long conflict. It is in this context that the death of Mullah Omar matters.
Taliban fighters have made gains in some areas of Afghanistan, but a split in the group could undermine some of these advances. Al-Qaeda is still active in the region, but the brand has taken a hit under the leadership of Ayman al-Zawahiri. Just last year al-Zawahiri again pledged his loyalty to Mullah Omar, but if Omar was already dead and al-Zawahiri knew this, then his credibility will fall further than it already has. This series of misfortunes hasn’t yet impacted the effectiveness of the Taliban/al-Qaeda ability to wage war, but it has opened the door to a new player in the region – the Islamic State.
Mullah Omar and Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi have feuded publicly, or at least we believe they have since we don’t know the exact date Omar died. The dispute, in layman’s terms, played out over who was the true Caliph. Mullah Omar had held the title of Leader of the Faithful, the term typically designated for a Caliph, while Abu Bakr founded his Caliphate in the Middle East, thus taking the title for himself. Abu Bakr additionally claimed that he, not Omar, had the credentials and education to make such a claim.
With Omar now officially out of the way, Abu Bakr’s argument potentially holds more weight and will likely play a role in recruitment of jihadists to the Islamic State fold in Central and South Asia. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Taliban, or its Deobandi school of jurisprudence is finished, but it does mean that the militant landscape both regionally and worldwide is about to experience shift quite dramatically.
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