By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent for In Homeland Security
As the ISIS offensive in Iraq continues to take territory, money and arms at an impressive, albeit slowing, rate it would seem that the militant movement is unstoppable.
Though that is certainly not the case, the offensive by the this non-state actor has demonstrated a significant reach in Syria and Iraq. Accentuating that point was the deliberate razing of a portion of the Syria-Iraq border followed by the claim that Sykes-Picot was dead.
In other words, the post-World War I agreement on the borders of the Middle East had reached its end. At the moment the use of bulldozers to clear a portion of the international boundary is symbolic, but it begs the question – will the Sunni peoples, regardless of their current or future relationship with ISIS, seek to carve out a state or states between Damascus and Baghdad?
Granted, it is far too soon to make such a prediction, but we must consider that regional powers, indeed even international powers, are concerned that the order that has governed the Middle East for the past century is on the brink. Anticipating a shake-up, Riyadh is playing a double game of disrupting ISIS activities in Saudi Arabia, but allowing Yousef bin Ali al Idrisis, the acting Intelligence Chief, to continue his work with ISIS in Iraq.
As Iran was largely seen to be on the march over the past decade so to speak, Saudi Arabia has sought to challenge Tehran where it could all in order to protect its interests. This proxy battle put significant political pressure on Turkey, the Kurdish people, and Jordan, though these important players have not received nearly the same amount of press that the other players have.
The desire for autonomy, or even outright independence, among the Kurdish people are well known, and Turkey’s burgeoning, yet clumsy, approach to the region has drawn the occasional curious gaze from international media, yet it is Jordan that has escaped critical analysis except among the most dogged of Middle East observers.
Throughout the U.S.-led Iraq war and the eventual Arab Spring, Amman has marched along largely unscathed by regional events. This isn’t to say that Jordan is immune to regional upheaval, nor does it mean that ISIS, or perhaps an internal uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood, will topple the government anytime soon, but it is concerning to consider that Jordan is under a large amount of stress.
A significant portion of the Jordanian population is Palestinian and the desert nation has become home to a substantial number of Syrian refugees. Additionally, the wars in Syria and Iraq – not to mention the proxy war between the Saudis and Iranians – have placed the kingdom in a rather tight spot.
Truth be told, a conventional assault by a non-state actor such as ISIS is still tough to imagine at this juncture, but with such a diverse population residing in a dense urban environment, groups such as ISIS could launch a destabilization campaign of terror designed to undermine Amman.
In essence, Jordan has several issues that cannot be ignored even though that haven’t yet been disastrous to the royals. As the battles continue to rage in Syria and Iraq, we must be wary of events in Jordan as they could change at a moments notice.
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