By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
After a deadly day in Paris, French authorities have carried out numerous raids across their nation in an attempt to round up individuals who may have had a hand in the attack.
Similar raids, notably in neighboring Belgium, have also occurred resulting in several arrests and the seizures of weapons. Analysts are likewise busy searching for associates of the suspects by scouring communications and reviewing officer statements collected from witnesses during the raids and after Friday’s attack. Some breaks in understanding the Islamic State networks in Europe will quickly emerge, but overall investigations like this take time.
Though there is certainly urgency in rolling up remaining members of the cell involved in the Paris attacks or uncovering other cells belonging to IS law enforcement and intelligence officers will take care not to overlook potential suspects in the name of expediency. As the investigations into this attack continue the challenge of preventing, or at least mitigating, future attacks from groups such as IS comes to the fore. For the French government, this will be a difficult task, but it will be a necessary one. Domestic considerations will be the most pressing and will receive the most attention, but it is the heart of the problem that will pose the greatest challenge – getting the international community to not only focus on Syria, but to finally arrive at a political process that will end the Syrian civil war and eventually deny IS such a large geographic area from which to operate.
Many pundits and experts alike have repeatedly named Syrian President Bashir al-Assad as the central problem to the Syrian conflict, and while this may be accurate to a point, many nations with an interest in Syria cannot come to an agreement over removing Assad and his regime. Even if Assad was removed, replacing the regime becomes another point of contention as numerous factions of Syrian society have been at war with each other for four years. This is something that is not easy or quickly reconciled. During an interview I gave on Sunday, I pointed to Iraq, Afghanistan, and the former Yugoslavia as examples of the difficulties in getting a new form of government to take root. Furthermore, providing a no fly zone to protect civilians can also lead to chaos as we’ve seen in Libya.
Though the effort to replace Assad is a laudable goal, and certainly a great place to start, it is just that, a start. Furthermore, there is disagreement over which groups in Syria are terrorist organizations. Once Russia kicked off their military action in Syria they have largely focused on anti-regime forces and only occasionally targeted the Islamic State or Nursa Front. Even NATO has its share of issues. Many in the U.S. coalition wish to arm moderate anti-regime and Kurdish forces – something that Turkey has been opposed to. Keep in mind these are just some of the nations that will be involved in crafting a political transition for Syria. Honestly, it doesn’t look too promising.
Perhaps the attacks that Paris so recently suffered will serve as an impetus for meaningful action on Syria. The numerous airstrikes that have represented action up to this point have done little to prevent the group’s growth or even constrain them geographically. It will take international political will to finally tackle the situation and alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Syria and the follow on effects of terrorism. Only time will tell and it’s entirely possible that the years long disagreements over Syria will persist. If that’s the case, then continued attacks can become common place.
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